These are our 2025 Oscar predictions

Awards season is officially upon us, and our resident Oscar nerd (and CBC Arts producer) Peter Knegt will be regularly updating his predictions for the main event: the 97th Academy Awards, which will go down on March 2, 2025.

Each month, we'll bring you an updated round of predictions right here, based on the latest buzz from the awards circuit as viewed through the lens of Knegt's decades-long Oscar fanaticism. You can also check out his monthly column My Favourite Season for all things award season as we count down to the big day.

Click to jump to each category:
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actress
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Original Screenplay
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best International Feature
Best Documentary Feature
Best Animated Feature
 

Best Picture

Last year, the race seemed pretty set by the end of September, and all signs pointed to a very Barbenheimer Oscars, with Poor Things surging as its primary competition. And that's basically how things panned out — though obviously with a bit less Barbie than many had hoped. 

This year, things feel drastically less clear even as we head into December. A few films certainly seem locked in for best picture nominations (Anora, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez), but it's not easy to imagine anything actually winning just yet. 

Current predictions (in alphabetical order):
Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, Sing Sing, Wicked

But don't count out (in order of most likely to join the lineup):
Blitz, The Room Next Door, A Complete Unknown, The Substance, September 5, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Gladitaor II, The Piano Lesson, Hard Truths

Best Director

Best Director

I must warn you that one of this season's big narrative is likely going to be one we've sadly heard too many times before: the directing races will be dominated by cis men, like arguable frontrunners Sean Baker (Anora) and Brady Corbet (The Brutalist). That's not to say each of those men aren't worthy. I'd just love it if they also found room for the truly exceptional work of The Substance director Coralie Fargeat or I Saw The TV Glow director Jane Schoenbrun, even if the genres of their respective films (easily two of my favourites this year) aren't typically considered "Oscar fare." 

Current predictions:
Anora (Sean Baker), The Brutalist (Brady Corbet), Conclave (Edward Berger), Dune: Part Two (Denis Villenueve), Nickel Boys (RaMell Ross)

But don't count out:
Emilia Pérez (Jacques Audiard), The Room Next Door (Pedro Almódovar), The Substance (Coralie Fargeat), Wicked (Jon M. Chu),  Gladiator II (Ridley Scott), The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Mohammad Rasoulof), Blitz (Steve McQueen), Challengers (Luca Guadagnino), I Saw The TV Glow (Jane Schoenbrun)

Best Actress

After decades of the trans community having to watch as so many cis actors walked away with Oscars for playing trans roles (see: Jared Leto, Hilary Swank, etc.), it finally seems like we're about to witness a historic and very overdue first when Karla Sofia Gascón becomes the first openly trans actor to ever receive an Oscar nomination for her powerhouse performance as the titular character in Emilia Pérez. And she'll almost certainly be joined by another breakout performer playing a film's title role, Mikey Madison, who is electrifying in Anora. Beyond that? It's one mother of a race for the last three slots, with Amy Adams, Cynthia Erivo, Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Angelina Jolie, Nicole Kidman, Demi Moore, Julianne Moore, Saoirse Ronan and Tilda Swinton all in contention. If it were up to me, I'd expand this category to 10 and then let every single nominee give a 10-minute speech.

Current predictions:
Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance)

But don't count out:
Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door), Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun), Amy Adams (Nightbitch), Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here), Julianne Moore (The Room Next Door), Zendaya (Challengers), June Squibb (Thelma)

Best Actor

Significantly less crowded than its female counterpart, this race seems to already have four nominees locked in with Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown and Adrien Brody (The Brutalist). Which sets things up to be a competition between three extraordinarily talented actors who have never won an Oscar (Domingo, Fiennes and Chalamet) and … someone whose previous Oscar win hasn't exactly aged well (Brody, who has not been nominated since he won over 20 years ago for Roman Polanski's The Pianist). It's still uncertain whether Brody has the momentum to go two for two, but I already feel sorry for his winless competitors if he does. One thing's increasingly for certain though: Joaquin Phoenix is not about to go deux for deux for playing the Joker. If the film's bad reviews don't stop him, outrage in the industry for how he totally screwed over Todd Haynes sure will.

Current predictions:
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)

But don't count out:
Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain), Sebastian Stan (A Different Man), Paul Mescal (Gladiator II), Jharrel Jerome (Unstoppable), John David Washington (The Piano Lesson)

Best Supporting Actress

Could this category feature an unprecedented battle of the pop stars if Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez) and Ariana Grande (Wicked) all end up getting nominated? Both seem to have legitimate shots, which would allow them to join a very small club of pop stars who went on to manage Oscar nominations for acting (alongside Cher, Barbra Streisand and Lady Gaga, the latter of which is definitely not getting an Oscar nod this year for the doomed Joker sequel). Grande definitely has the momentum between the two, and potentially could even be competitive for the win.

Current predictions:
Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

But don't count out:
Saoirse Ronan (Blitz), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys), Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez), Joan Chen (Dìdi), Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Natasha Lyonne (His Three Daughters), Carrie Coon (His Three Daughters),  Fernanda Montenegro (I'm Still Here), Elle Fanning (A Complete Unknown)

Best Supporting Actor

If Denzel Washington ends up getting his 10th Oscar nomination for his performance in Gladiator II (which seems like the film's surest bet right now), it would tie him with Spencer Tracy as the fifth most nominated actor in all of Oscar history. The only four people with more than 10 nominations? Meryl Streep (21), Katharine Hepburn (12), Jack Nicholson (12) and Bette Davis (11). That's some pretty wild company. Even wilder, though, is the possibility that Washington is nominated at the same ceremony as not one but two of his sons: John David Washington for acting in The Piano Lesson, and Malcolm Washington for writing and directing it.  

Current predictions:
Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)

But don't count out:
Stanley Tucci (Conclave), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Mark Eydelshteyn (Anora), Ray Fisher (The Piano Lesson), John Magaro (September 5), Adam Pearson (A Different Man), Brian Tyree Henry (The Fire Inside), Drew Starkey (Queer), Jonathan Bailey (Wicked), John Lithgow (Conclave)

Best Original Screenplay

A year after two sets of romantic partners were nominated for writing scripts together (Justine Triet and Arthur Harari, who won in this category for their Anatomy of a Fall script, and Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach, who were nominated for their "adapted" Barbie screenplay), the trend seems poised to continue with Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold for their collaboration writing The Brutalist. But can Corbet and Fastvold become the second consecutive real-life couple to share a best original screenplay Oscar? I wouldn't bet it, as Sean Baker taking this Oscar for his Anora script is probably the one thing I'd feel comfortable calling this far in advance.

Current predictions:
Anora (Sean Baker), The Brutalist (Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold), Challengers (Justin Kuritzkes), Hard Truths (Mike Leigh), A Real Pain (Jesse Eisenberg)

But don't count out:
The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Mohammad Rasoulof), The Substance (Coralie Fargeat), Blitz (Steve McQueen), Saturday Night (Jason Reitman and Gil Kenan), Dìdi (Sean Wang), His Three Daughters (Azazel Jacobs), September 5 (Tim Fehlbaum, Moritz Binder and Alex David),

Best Adapted Screenplay

Denis Villeneuve was famously snubbed for directing the first Dune, but he did receive a nomination for adapting its screenplay. With Dune: Part Two garnering an even better reception than the first, one would imagine he's a lock here, along with Peter Straughan for Conclave and the quartet of men — Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence (Divine Eye) Maclin and John (Divine G) Whitfield — who collectively based the Sing Sing script on the experiences of those in the Rehabilitation Through the Arts program at the Sing Sing Correctional Facility, where both Maclin and Whitfield had themselves been incarcerated.    

Current predictions:
Conclave (Peter Straughan), Dune: Part Two (Denis Villeneuve, Jon Spaihts), Nickel Boys (RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes), The Room Next Door (Pedro Almodóvar), Sing Sing (Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence "Maclin, John Whitfield)

But don't count out:
Emilia Pérez (Jacques Audiard), Wicked (Winnie Holzman and Dana Fox), The Wild Robot (Chris Sanders), The Piano Lesson (Virgil Williams, Malcolm Washington), A Complete Unknown (Jay Cocks, James Mangold), Hit Man (Richard Linklater, Glen Powell), Nightbitch (Marielle Heller), Nosferatu (Robert Eggers), Queer (Justin Kuritzkes)

Best International Feature

The possible nominees in this category are determined by selection committees of various iterations from countries all around the world. This year's deadline for submission was Oct. 2. Eighty-six countries put forward films, which will be whittled down to a shortlist of 15 films on Dec. 17 before ultimately becoming the final five nominees.

The overwhelming frontrunner at this point comes from France, even if it's a mostly Spanish-language film set in Mexico starring a lot of Americans (and also a film I admittedly am not a fan of ): Jacques Audiard's Emilia Pérez. Largely expected to also be nominated for best picture (not to mention several acting categories), it would be France's 42nd nomination in this category — the most of any country. 

Current predictions (in alphabetical order):
Emilia Pérez (France), I'm Still Here (Brazil), Kneecap (Ireland), The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany), Universal Language (Canada)

But don't count out (in order of most likely to join the lineup):
Vermiglio (Italy), Cloud (Japan), The Girl With The Needle (Denmark), Dahomey (Senegal), How To Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (Thailand), Grand Tour (Portugal), Armand (Norway), Sujo (Mexico)

Best Documentary Feature

Notoriously, the trickiest category to predict, this year's best documentary feature category does appear to have two films that could arguably be considered favourites: Natalie Rae and Angela Patton's Daughters and Josh Greenbaum's Will & Harper.

Though the films deal in very different subjects (Daughters follows a group of incarcerated men and their daughters, while Will & Harper documents a road trip between actor Will Ferrell and his newly transitioned best friend, Harper Steele), they do share two things: both films premiered at the 2024 Sundance Film Festival, and both have since been acquired and released by Netflix. Netflix has not won a lot of Oscars, but it has excelled in this category, winning back-to-back trophies for 2019's American Factory and 2020's My Octopus Teacher. Seems like either Daughters or Will & Harper could add another to that pile come March.

Current predictions (in alphabetical order):
Black Box Diaries, Daughters, No Other Land, Sugarcane, Will & Harper

But don't count out (in order of most likely to join the lineup):
Union, Dahomey, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, Soundtrack to a Coup D'État, Gaucho Gaucho, Girls State, Frida, A New Kind of Wilderness, The Remarkable Life of Ibelin

Best Animated Feature

One of the few seemingly certain things in this year's race is that The Wild Robot is winning this category. Directed by Chris Sanders (nominated three times before for Lilo & Stitch, How To Train Your Dragon and The Croods), the adaptation of Peter Brown's 2016 novel has received universal acclaim and made a lot of money — two things that more or less guarantee a win here. 

Current predictions (in alphabetical order):
Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

But don't count out (in order of most likely to join the lineup):
The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim, Chicken For Linda!, Despicable Me 4, Piece by Piece, Ultraman: Rising, Moana 2

Check back for updates to these predictions as we slowly but surely make our way to the 97th Academy Awards on March 1, 2025. Additional categories will be added each month as the season continues.