Why floods and fires often jeopardize political careers
In April 1997, Manitoba was bracing for an overflow of the Red River that would later be known as The Flood of the Century.
A vast flood plain filled with water, creating a temporary lake from the U.S. Border to the city of Winnipeg. They called it the Red Sea.
But people knew it was coming. Desperate preparations to dike off communities, homes and buildings paid off, saving property and mitigating damage. More than eight million sandbags were placed.
One of those bags was put there by the Prime Minister.
As the waters were rising, Jean Chretien called a federal election. Some Manitoba Liberals asked him to delay the writ. Instead, Chretien visited a dike building operation in Winnipeg and hoisted the sandbag as camera crews caught him asking, "What do you want me to do with this?"
"He won the election so it didn't turn out too badly," Stephen Carter says on CBC Day 6. But he doesn't see Chretien's action as a template of political sensitivity.
"That's a great photo, but it actually isn't what's required by our community at that time. To go into these situations and use them for political opportunism is about the worst thing you can do."
Stephen Carter has some experience watching politicians thread the needle on handling natural disasters.
Carter was a political strategist on Naheed Nenshi's 2010 campaign to be mayor of Calgary, and for Alison Redford during the 2012 election that made her Alberta's premier.
Both Nenshi and Redford were in power during the devastating 2013 Alberta floods, and both were scrutinized for their handling of one of Canada's costliest natural disasters.
Carter says the way a politician behaves during a natural disaster can define them for the duration of their political life.
"It begins what we call the narrative. Who is this person, fundamentally? We don't know usually who our politicians are. But through their response to our crisis we see how we want to see them and they become that caricature."
This week it was the mayor of Montreal's turn to define himself as his city faced rising water.
Anger at Coderre
Flood waters in Ontario and Quebec appear to be subsiding, but not before major damage was inflicted in communities including Montreal, Gatineau and along the swollen Ottawa River.
On Thursday, Quebec premier Philippe Couillard and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau viewed the area by helicopter, and spoke in Gatineau along with several other ministers and politicians. They appeared to avoid some of the public anger settling on Montreal Mayor Denis Coderre.
In Montreal, the mayor has attracted the frustration of citizens who say the city was unprepared for the floods and not responsive to calls for help.
Ali Pazouki lives in the north west of the city which was inundated when three dikes failed. He told CBC: "I'll tell you one thing — the only one who helped me on this was the people, the neighbours, people from school — the Canadian people."
Carter says Coderre should be prepared to absorb the anger.
"In every disaster there is going to be a hero and there is going to be a villain. This is the trick of all politicians. Denis Coderre — did he do something wrong? I don't know. But I do know is he's going to get blamed."
"That's the reality of politics. You're going to get blamed or you're going to hero and Denis Coderre is not managing that right now."
Different levels of government, different kinds of response
For Calgary's mayor it was a different story. During Alberta's massive floods in 2013, Nenshi was praised as a "beacon of strength." But Carter says Premier Redford didn't fare as well.
"People felt like [Nenshi] was up 24 hours a day responding to people on Twitter, responding to them on Facebook, and standing in front of the media at every opportunity. It's much harder for a premier to walk the fine line to get the response right. And premier Redford didn't walk the line very well. She showed up too late and she left too early."
"Alison Redford was forever defined by her response to the 2013 floods," Carter says. "That defined her. And that becomes something that's very difficult to move away from in later years, whereas Naheed Nenshi was defined as someone who was there, who was decisive."
Carter says different levels of government have different responsibilities to their citizens, and sometimes on the frontlines of a disaster, they can lose sight of that.
"They always start promising something," Carter says.
"And so the next thing that happens is, they say we're going to help people, but then they can't help everybody the same. In Ontario right now there's cottage owners who aren't going to get compensated by the government because it's a cottage that was damaged. How does someone come in and manage that situation?"
"The mayor just needs to make sure that the utilities are back in place and that the floodwaters recede and that the roads get cleared. The province has a much more difficult challenge and so does the federal government in making sure that when they step in and try and help people, they are doing so in what is seen to be a fair and equitable manner."
Prioritizing safety
So why was Mayor Nenshi able to avoid the anger some Montrealers are directing at Denis Coderre?
Carter says Nenshi made his focus the safety of citizens — their lives over their property.
"It's not Denis Coderre's fault. But Naheed Nenshi, when he was dealing with the 2013 flood, was trying to save lives."
"Our concern in Calgary, literally, was making sure that everybody got out safely."
"It was happening incredibly fast. We weren't putting out sand and sandbags and hoping for the best. We were getting people the heck out of there. And Denis Coderre seems to be in a situation where they're trying to save things and that's just so much harder. You know, that wasn't our concern."