'Hell on Earth:' What the assault on eastern Ghouta says about Syria's future

"Hell on earth" is how U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres described the scenes in Syria's eastern Ghouta region this week.

More than 400 people have been killed and 500 others injured — mostly civilians — as a recent rise in bombings on the area continues.

• CBC News | Deadly airstrikes continue near Damascus as death toll surpasses 400
• CBC News | Dying of neglect: eastern Ghouta under siege is a hell on earth

Mona Yacoubian is a specialist on Syria and the Middle East for the U.S. Institute for Peace. She spoke with Day 6 host Brent Bambury about what the latest attacks mean for Syria's future.

Brent Bambury: What does this devastating attack on eastern Ghouta by Assad's forces represent?

Mona Yacoubian: This comes in the context of the Assad regime now having consolidated control over a significant part of Syria. There are still some remaining rebel strongholds and the suburb of eastern Ghouta is considered one of them.

This very ferocious and brutal attack by the regime is really being undertaken with the goal of trying to regain one of the last remaining rebel strongholds.

So if Assad is consolidating, if he has now prevailed in Syria, and eastern Ghouta is an example of the winding down of seven years of war, what kind of country has he won?

It's a country that's fragmented and fractured, and frankly one in which, unfortunately, while Assad may have gained control in terms of the civil war, we are seeing a number of new conflicts being unleashed.

That means violence in Syria for many years to come, unfortunately.

How do you think Assad sees this moment? What kind of a victory is this for him if this is what it is?

I think for Assad, victory is all about his survival. This has been an existential crisis or struggle for the Assad regime — for Assad himself — from day one. And so in that sense, it's not a victory in terms of a stable Syria that's on the way toward reconstruction.

But it is his survival, the fact that he is still standing in Damascus. That, for him, is what constitutes victory.

The country no longer resembles the Syria of 2011. In this new scenario, with these new players, how much of Syria does Assad actually control?

The Syria of today in no way resembles the pre-uprising Syria, nor will it ever, because even in those areas that the Syrian regime controls, the regime relies on a number of sectarian militias to sort of consolidate or extend their control on the ground.

There are some real questions about how much control, how much authority, does the regime have over those militias. And, of course, there are parts of Syria — at least 50 percent or so of the country — that is outside of the regime's control.

You have suggested that parts of Syria could end up being controlled by warlords. How would that happen?

It's already happening because these militias also run war profiteering rackets. They run checkpoints. This is not a normal situation. They are empowered by their guns.

There is no rule of law and so what you have, in effect, is a fairly entrenched warlord economy that people are profiting from, benefiting off of. That is there to stay for many, many years.

And now the people of Ghouta are trying to survive this onslaught. What will it be like for these civilians who will try to live through it as this unfolds?

I think that the suffering of Syrian civilians is unspeakable. There really aren't words that are sufficient to describe the horrific level of suffering that they have experienced.

In Ghouta ... this suburb east of Damascus, there are an estimated 350,000 to 400,000 civilians who are besieged, who literally cannot get out. Nor can food or medical assistance get in.

The ferocity of the bombing campaigns that have taken place over the last several days have forced many people down into underground shelters, fearing for their lives. The level of suffering in Syria is truly unimaginable. 

I think you're hearing this from senior U.N. officials and others who are, sort of, really almost throwing their hands up at this point with the international community — and the powerlessness of the international community — to step in and put an end to this suffering.

This interview has been edited for length and clarity. To hear our full interview with Mona Yacoubian, download our podcast or click 'Listen' above.