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Front Burner Transcript for May 20, 2025

Host: Jayme Poisson

JAYME POISSON: Hi everyone, I'm Jayme Poisson.

[Music: Theme]

SOUNDCLIP

ALBERTA PROSPERITY PROJECT CO-FOUNDER: Do you agree that the province of Alberta shall become a sovereign country and cease to be a province of Canada, yes or no?

[crowd responds Yes!, cheers]

JP: So what you're hearing here is one of the co-founders of the Alberta Prosperity Project, a group that wants Alberta to separate from Canada. And he's putting forward a proposed referendum question to a crowd. Hundreds of people filled a banquet hall in Calgary last week to hear from these guys who are trying to drum up support for a petition with enough signatures to trigger a referendum on separation in 2026. This followed a rally at the Alberta legislature earlier this month where hundreds showed up to support the same cause.

SOUNDCLIP

ALBERTA PROSPERITY PROJECT MEMBER: We wish to be in charge as Albertans of our own nation.

JP: One of the reasons the petition is picking up steam in Alberta is because Premier Danielle Smith's United Conservative Party, on the day after the federal election, tabled legislation that would lower the bar for holding a referendum vote. The bill passed late last week. Only 177,000 signatures are now needed to trigger the vote. Previously, it needed about 600,000. This all has a lot of people saying that the province is hurtling towards a referendum. Jason Markusoff covers Alberta politics for the CBC, and we're gonna discuss the latest moves by Smith, including the backlash, as well as the separatist movement in Alberta itself and whether it's actually gaining traction.

[Music: Theme]

JP: Jason, great to have you.

JASON MARKUSOFF: Hey, pal.

JP: That bill that I just mentioned, it was tabled the day after the federal election. And just tell me about the timing. Why would Premier Smith's government table it, and why table it when they did?

JASON MARKUSOFF: Now, Danielle Smith is... comes from the activist side of Alberta. The uh, the side that believes in direct democracy. Her argument is that this wasn't tied to a referendum movement, a separatist movement. That, you know, she thinks that there's a citizens initiative device, this option in Alberta, that enough petitioners can force a referendum. She believes there should be more referenda and therefore she lowered the threshold greatly. [JP: Right.] Um, using the formula--

JP: She's saying more referenda, and not just on separation, but on other stuff too, I guess, is her argument. Yeah.

JASON MARKUSOFF: Yeah. In fact, and she's-- and as... as we all ask her about separation, she says, well, this is for anything.

SOUNDCLIP

DANIELLE SMITH: I won't prejudge what issues citizens might want to put on the table, but that is up to citizens to decide and to get the number of signatures. All I've said is I will honour the process.

JASON MARKUSOFF: Which seems to a lot of people naive, because even before Mark Carney won his fourth term, people were talking about referendum and separation. They were gathering petitions to get the previous threshold, uh, these separatist groups. So she knew full well putting this out that a lot people in Alberta in her conservative base were already pushing for a separation. She just made it a whole lot more likely that they succeed.

JP: Talk to me a little bit about the reaction to the bill.

JASON MARKUSOFF: Oh my goodness, there's so much reaction to this. Because it... you know, anything that seems to be hurtling the country closer to breakup or potential breakup, uh, will get attention. The idea that Alberta separation now has a vehicle to be active will get attention. The provincial NDP, uh, the lead opposition led by Naheed Nenshi, has basically said she's a separatist, [JP: Hm.] or if she's not, she's sure acting like one, even though Danielle Smith protests that she's not.

SOUNDCLIP

NAHEED NENSHI: Like how dumb does she think we are? 'Oh, I have nothing to do with separation. It's just those citizens doing it. And don't pay no attention to this bill that I just passed, which is specifically designed to allow them to do it.'

JASON MARKUSOFF: One of the biggest groups that's been opposed to this and really, really frustrated, um, using very sharp terms like calling this garbage, betrayal, are First Nations groups.

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CHIEF BILLY-JOE TUCCARO: Bill 54 -- this is what we think of you.

[pile of paper hits the floor]

CHIEF BILLY-JOE TUCCARO: You're garbage like that. This is Treaty land, and we stand on it today.

[Indigenous supporters make traditional vocalizations, clap]

CHIEF TROY BOSSMAN KNOWLTON: This is a Treaty country, and any talk of separation is really insanity.

CHIEF HENRY LEWIS: I want to respectfully remind the premier that this land that we stand on today is Treaty land and is not yours to take or make sweeping decisions about.

JASON MARKUSOFF: Of course, these First Nations groups, the treaty lands of 6, 7, 8 in Alberta, they signed these treaties with the Crown -- the Canadian Crown, not with Alberta. [JP: Right.] So to their mind, there is no way you can even entertain the idea of ripping their treaty lands out of Canada into this separate sovereign state of Alberta without their full and informed consent, and they are just furious about this. The province, Danielle Smith has tried to save some face, by uh, saying that adding an amendment to this legislation, Bill 54, that just passed a few days ago, that any question would have to respect treaty law, but the treaty chiefs are not happy with this still at all.

JP: And just to be clear, this bill has already passed, right?

JASON MARKUSOFF: It was passed third reading last week. It will be signed by the lieutenant governor into law and then, uh, it will be a whole lot easier to get a separation referendum or any other kind of referendum that citizens want onto a ballot. And Danielle Smith's already said that if that happens, it'll happen in 2026.

SOUNDCLIP

DANIELLE SMITH: As most Albertans know, I have repeatedly stated I do not support Alberta separating from Canada. I personally still have hope that there is a path forward for a strong and sovereign Alberta within a united Canada.

[music]

JP: Let's dig into the timing a little bit more. So as I mentioned, it was tabled the day after the federal election. We now have a fourth consecutive Liberal government. And the Liberal Party, worth noting, picked up 3 of 51 seats available between Alberta and Saskatchewan. And just, what is the feeling on the ground about the federal election results where you are?

JASON MARKUSOFF: Premier Smith has more or less said that the timing was deliberate. Uh, not that they wanted to tap the separation fervour, but more that Danielle Smith didn't want to rock the boat in the federal election, [JP: Mm.] any more than she already had. Let's, let's rewind to the start of the election, [Jayme laughs] when some comments of hers, uh, got out there from-- that she'd given to a U.S. pod- a conservative podcast, which said that:

SOUNDCLIP

DANIELLE SMITH: That's what I fear, is that the longer this dispute goes on, politicians posture, and it seems to be benefiting the Liberals right now. Um, so I would hope that we could put things on pause, is what I've told administration officials. Let's just put things on pause so we can get through an election. Let's have the best person at the table, make the argument for how they would deal with it, and I think that's Pierre Poilievre. And I do agree...

JASON MARKUSOFF: And she also told the right-wing audience that:

SOUNDCLIP

DANIELLE SMITH: The uh, the perspective that Pierre would bring would be very much in sync with, I think, where -- the new direction in America.

JASON MARKUSOFF: Uh, that did not help the Conservative cause. In fact, Danielle Smith wound up leaving the province, uh, going to -- on a mission to South Korea and Japan for a bit of it. So she-- So one of the purposes was not rocking the boat, putting out all these controversial provisions, including the referendum petition, right after. Um, but certainly, it it captured a mood and it captured something that was already happening in Alberta, because the Conservatives are the home team. Uh, people believe in the Conservatives. And this was a... you know, keep in mind, Albertans and all Canadians were, until January, expecting this 20-point landslide [JP: Mm-hmm.] by the Conservatives. Um. There's been frustration in the-- in past years, and a bit of a separation, uh, fervour bubbling up in past years when the Liberals kept winning, uh, government, uh, despite such strong Conservative showings. There are people in Alberta who might think their voices don't matter, and that, you know, voting Liberal is just what the rest of the country does. Um, and maybe that doesn't reflect Alberta values anymore, so it has increased the desire to leave for a lot of Albertans.

[music]

JP: I just want to ask you about, you know, the evolution of the separatist movement in, in Alberta, right, and just how different this moment is from past moments. An Angus Reid poll from earlier this month shows that a minority of Albertans, 36%, support leaving Confederation. So, that shrinks when you check out how serious that support is, right? Only 19% said that they would definitely vote to leave were a referendum held. We've talked about this movement on the show before. Um. But just how has it evolved over the years? I know, for example, there was a big upswing during the National Energy Program in the 1980s. Just compare and contrast the evolution of this moment to today.

JASON MARKUSOFF: The '80s was a big flash point, uh, when Alberta felt like Ottawa was directly attacking the oil sector, this lifeblood industry for Alberta. A small party called the Western Canada Concept actually started running candidates, and they won a byelection, a provincial byelection in the riding of Olds-Didsbury back in '82. A big shock. They didn't go much farther. They actually-- There was a general election later that year and they got wiped out. But still, that was this big shock movement where people were talking about Western alienation, Western separatism. Then, of course, a few years after that we get the Reform Party, this big 'West Wants In' movement that ultimately became the Canadian Alliance, then became the backbone of the modern Conservative Party. But separatism didn't really go anywhere in the '80s. Uh, in 2019, there was this Wexit movement bubbling up.

SOUNDCLIP

UNKNOWN SPEAKER: The Reform Party, in the '80s and '90s, their slogan was 'The West Wants In.' Wexit Canada's slogan is 'The West Wants Out.'

JASON MARKUSOFF: Polls showed that 20-some per cent of Albertans or maybe even 30 per cent of-- some per cent of Albertans want to leave. But there was no real outlet for it. There's no real movement being organized. A few, you know, leaders that nobody had ever heard of before, uh, running the show.

SOUNDCLIP

WEXIT LEADER PETER DOWNING: We are going to make Alberta great again, and that is when we cut ourselves off from the leech that is Eastern Canada.

JASON MARKUSOFF: And it petered out. Flash forward to now -- still a lot of critical mass. Uh, you know, high 20s, low 30s. Not much difference in the opinion, uh, from the Wexit era. But what seems to be different is two things. One, there's an organization behind it. There's this group, the Alberta Prosperity Project.

SOUNDCLIP

ALBERTA PROSPERITY PROJECT MEMBER: We're going to finally live free of all federal taxes. We're gonna live free of all federal regulation. You know, we're gonna double the oil production in the province of Alberta. And every Albertan, every walk of life, every ethnicity, every group in this province, including Alberta's First Nations, are going to thrive.

JASON MARKUSOFF: And other groups. There's a new, a new -- a separatist party called the Republican Party of Alberta, which seems to be getting a lot of money, a lot of momentum. It's going to run candidates. It has a veteran organizer as its leader, uh, Cam Davies, uh, calling the shots. Quite interesting there. Um. You have former UCP organizers, Conservative organizers who are known and who have been successful, um, pushing out former premier Jason Kenney, um, winning some new policies, hardline policies on human rights and transgender issues at the UCT conventions [JP: Mm-hmm.] who helped support Danielle Smith. Um, so there are these people who are organizing, who know how to fill a room and persuade people to get active in their communities and do this petition drive. And that's the other big, big thing that's different. This petition drive -- in the past, you could be a separatist and be frustrated, but there was nowhere to go because there was no way in hell the government of Alberta was going to put forth a referendum. But now that there is a citizens initiative movement and that Danielle Smith has made it so much easier to force a referendum on separation on the ballot, um, there is a place to direct that anger and that frustration and the desire to separate. Uh, and so there's a destination for that. Is that people are going to be pouring into it once this petition drive launches probably this summer or fall.

SOUNDCLIP

ALBERTA PROSPERITY PROJECT MEMBER: Um, we've got the votes that we need to trigger, uh, to trigger the referendum, but of course, you know, we're going to have an 87-constituency door knocking campaign in and around pledges for the petition. We're gonna have an 87-constituency door-knocking campaign in support of the referendum. Um, you know, we hope by the end of the summer that we're going have over a million signatures on a petition, um, for independence from Canada.

[music]

JP: And I wonder if you could also help me understand Danielle Smith's place in all this, right? You know, she obviously heads the UCP party. I know that separating is particularly popular with members of that party. What kind of politics is she, or political motivations is she dealing with here?

JASON MARKUSOFF: Oh, there are politics at play. That same Angus Reid poll you said, that said that 36% of Albertans either definitely or lean toward wanting to separate from Canada. Within the people who vote UCP, 65%. So most people who are voting UCP are also now separatists or soft separatists.

SOUNDCLIP

ALBERTA PROSPERITY PROJECT MEMBER: She understands now that over 65% of the UCP base are on side with what we're, what we're offering Albertans.

JASON MARKUSOFF: That's among the people who vote for it. Then you pare that down to the people who are active members of the party, and that seems to be a core that is heavily separatist. In fact, a few weeks ago, she was holding a fundraiser in Bonnyville, uh, where one of the lead organizers of the UCP out there happens to be also a lead separatist, where he asks her on stage:

SOUNDCLIP

UCP ORGANIZER: Do you agree that the province of Alberta shall become a sovereign country and cease to be a province of Canada, yes or no?

[audience cheers]

JASON MARKUSOFF: Big applause, huge reaction from the audience. And all she can do is laugh nervously and try to ask her own question.

SOUNDCLIP

DANIELLE SMITH: Do you believe that we can negotiate a better deal with Ottawa and still be a strong--

[crowd boos]

DANIELLE SMITH: Hold on, you got the yeses on his. I'm looking for yeses. How many of you believe that we can negotiate a new deal with the -- No, I'm looking for the yeses! For a strong and sovereign Alberta within a united Canada.

[crowd boos]

JASON MARKUSOFF: She got boos and was heckled as she was trying to ask that other, softer question. So this is what Danielle Smith is dealing with.

JP: And am I right to say there's an election on the horizon here?

JASON MARKUSOFF: So the election is still two years away. We're looking into 2027. Uh, that's -- a lot can happen in two years. A lot tends to happen in two years in Alberta [JP: Yeah.] politics. Certainly, usually-- sometimes premiers don't even last that long. [laughs] Um. There are some speculation out there that she wants to go to an early election, but I'm not sure where that would lead her if uh, if right now the party is split between being federalist and separatist. And gosh, I gotta pause and say the Jason Markusoff of early 2025 cannot believe, cannot believe Jayme, that I'm talking about federalist Albertans and separatist Albertans. This new lexicon that we're taking on in this whole thing is just, it's shocking.

JP: Just tell me more about why that shocks you so much.

JASON MARKUSOFF: What's changing now is that the argument is becoming, you know, morphing from less Ottawa or being anti-Ottawa to being anti-Canada. And that's a very strange and jarring step to take. This is a province where, you know, like everywhere, you're starting to see more Canadian flags out there, with the whole 51st state threat. And right now we're talking, you know, with the Leafs -- sorry, Jayme -- just eliminated [Jayme laughs] from playoffs, and the Oilers, once again this year, are, quote unquote, "Canada's team."

JP: Right.

JASON MARKUSOFF: You know, this is a province that, you know, tends to believe a lot in Canada. So to have this big debate about getting out of Canada, um, it's... and it having-- it gathered steam, becoming real so fast and so quickly, and that Danielle Smith has abetted it with this referendum thing, it's just... it, it's surprising to wrap our head around. And also, I mean, you ask anybody in Quebec, uh, during those years where there was a separatist threat, where there was a referendum on the table, it's all consuming. There may be other issues on the table. And in Alberta, of course, there are: there's health-care issues, there's a health-care controversy and scandal brewing within Alberta's health system. There's, you know, education pressures, potential strikes. Um, oil and gas economy is always, you know, thrown by the world, world prices. Um, but when we're talking about separation, we're talking about the potential that Canada could be torn apart and Alberta could leave, [JP: Yeah.] that is, you know, reasonably going to suck a lot of the oxygen out of the air.

JP: Picking up on, on this idea that you were just talking about, that it's moved so quickly. Um. I know Naheed Nenshi, the leader of the NDP, has his own political motivations here, but I, I was struck by one thing I heard him say recently. He was making a comparison to Brexit, and how David Cameron let that vote go ahead, thinking that it was, like, a fringe minority and that he would let it go to a vote. And actually, letting it go to a vote, itself, uh, kind of increased the popularity of the idea, and then of course, the U.K. voted to separate from the EU. Um. So I mean, it, it just was an interesting parallel that I thought that he, uh, brought up.

JASON MARKUSOFF: David Cameron didn't expect the Brexit movement to win. The Brexiteers sometimes didn't. Um. But they, you know, they wound up making the better, rosier, bigger arguments. Um. And one big difference here that I think we have to keep an eye on is in the Brexit campaign, David Cameron offered the referendum question, but he also argued consistently for the benefits of staying within, within the European Union.

JP: Yes.

JASON MARKUSOFF: We're-- It's not clear yet that Danielle Smith, if we go to referendum, is going to actively campaign to keep it-- stay in Alberta. Especially given where her party base is, and that her past reluctance to actually cross her party base and fight for the whole province.

[music]

JP: So you mentioned Quebec before. Obviously, uh, that is the only other time the question of leaving the country has actually made it to a referendum -- Quebec in 1995. And Albertans looking at separatism are really, as I understand it, modelling themselves off of that history. The separatist movement in Quebec shook the country, obviously.

SOUNDCLIP

[Archival clip]

[CBC Decision Desk intro theme]

PETER MANSBRIDGE: Decision desk calling for a No Victory numerically tonight. It's gonna be a squeaker. Maybe as much as one percentage point separating the two sides.

PETER MANSBRIDGE: 50.6% No; 49.4% Yes.

JP: I know you've been thinking about the lessons that it could offer Alberta in this present moment. And what are they?

JASON MARKUSOFF: Well, a lot of people are talking first about the cautionary tale, the economic cautionary tale. I mean, this is ironic that a lot of the argument for separation is economic. That Ottawa, with its climate regulations and energy policies, is kinda putting its thumb on Alberta. And without the federal regulations, without the yoke of Ottawa, Alberta could be so much more prosperous. We could be-- We are wealthier per capita. Um, we would have-- be able to drill, baby, drill. Pipelines everywhere. This is the, the future that the separatists are selling, that will be so much more economically stronger without Ottawa, you know, holding us back, goes the argument. Um. Quebec suffered greatly 'cause of its separatist movement. The uncertainty that it brought. People want to invest in a province, in a part of Canada, if they didn't know what its future was going to be. If it was going be in Canada or be out on its own, this unique, you know, country, with-- cut-off from most of the rest of the world, um, bracketed by Canada. Um, the same thing in Alberta. A lot of economic and business experts are worried that this is going to zap investment at a time when Alberta needs investment to renew its oil patch, to diversify its economy. In fact, Atco, which is this large company based in Calgary, this large energy and pipeline company, has said that they've had Japanese and South Korean clients saying, we're not sure how we can invest. [JP: Huh.] Until you figured out what kind of, you know, what Alberta is, why would we put-- sink money into here? So there is that real big cloud. And, you know, before the separatist movement, Montreal was the bigger economic centre than Toronto. Uh, that changed rapidly when financial institutions and major companies left Montreal for the safer harbour of-- in English Canada. You know, if it goes far down that road where [unclear] separatism becomes a real ballot question, uh, and a, uh, and a real option, um, there could be a huge chill on the financial and business and economic and investment sectors within, within Alberta.

[music]

JP: So we have this new prime minister, who um, passed a deal with this um, growing problem. I think it's fair to say it's growing. Um, Smith recently announced that there will be a sovereignty panel to explore long-term options for economic and constitutional protections from Ottawa. She said last week that, quote, "As scared as these people are of what Donald Trump is going to do to their economy, that's how scared Albertans are of what the Liberals are going to do the Alberta economy."

SOUNDCLIP

DANIELLE SMITH: Well, I think Albertans are hurt and betrayed. That's how I think Alberta's are feeling. Um, I think Canada as a whole got a sense of that feeling of hurt and betrayal with the way the Americans are treating us right now. But we're being treated, we've been treated that way for the last 10 years. Treated like we should be just shut up and just be satisfied with whatever the central government decides to do, regardless of whether it's constitutional or not. I think that's what...

JP: She's also demanding a bunch of things from the Liberal government. She's talked about them. Easy access to all three ocean coasts for oil and gas projects, for example. More financial transfers. Um. Many of the Liberals' climate policies walked back. Uh, and then, of course, he's dealing with this growing separatist movement. And just, what kind of challenges does all of this pose for Prime Minister Carney, and is there a sense in Alberta that he is taking this seriously?

JASON MARKUSOFF: Mark Carney, uh, won on, won nationally [unclear] crisis. Basically just trying to be the man to repel the threat of the 51st state of Donald Trump's takeover, of Donald's economic crushing of Alberta, or of Canada with tariffs and other economic measures. Um, and now he finds that he is-- that seems like it's been managed better, um, with his his meeting of Trump. But now, there's this other big national [unclear] crisis with this Western separatist front. It's a challenge. I mean, it's a challenge that uh, you know, no prime minister has faced since Chrétien in '95, having a potential referendum question. And this to test a new prime minister, uh, is quite a challenge, especially a Liberal prime minister who knows that it's animus towards his own party that tends to be formed part of the backbone of the separatist fervour. Um. You know, it was no surprise that he made sure that there was a cabinet member, uh, from Edmonton, Eleanor Olszewski, uh, in cabinet. Also a Saskatchewan MP, Buckley Belanger, uh, both in his cabinet. Um. You know, he has promised to make Canada an energy superpower. He has talked about pipelines in a much more open way. Talked about walking back or modifying some of the Trudeau government's climate policies, uh, in the name of build, baby Having more economic power within our country, more inter-provincial connections for both energy and other trade. Um, so he is speaking a language that, you know, is more amenable to what Alberta has been talking about. Um, will it be enough? Danielle Smith has really set the bar high. She is calling for the moon, and it'll be interesting to see if she can accept partial wins as wins. And there was an indication this past week of why that might not be the case. When you look at how she responded to cabinet. Uh, she didn't respond to the fact that there was an Albertan in cabinet. She didn't respond to fact that the new Energy Minister, Tim Hodgson, who's an investment [JP: Yeah.] banker with capital, uh, with capital investment experience, also used to be on the board of MEG Energy, a major oil sands company. The oil sands sector, the energy sector, is through-the-roof [JP: Yeah.] happy about Tim Hodgson.

JP: Yeah.

JASON MARKUSOFF: She didn't talk about those. She only talked about Julie Dabrusin, who was [JP: Yeah.] environment-- the new environment minister, who hasn't spoken yet, but has had some background supportive of carbon tax and the ban on single-use plastics. And she's already slamming this environment minister, who hasn't talked publicly yet, as Guilbeault 2.0. Ignoring all the potential positives for Alberta from Ottawa, but only focusing on the negatives. So which raised the question, um, if she's trying to tamp down separatism by getting some winds off Ottawa, is she going to take partial winds as winds, or is she gonna, just gonna keep criticizing and keep on anteing up with frustration against Ottawa and anti-Ottawa fervour. Um. What's that going to do to the separatist movement?

JP: Jason, I could ask you about this for the next several hours. You're such a well.

JASON MARKUSOFF: I only have three hours, sorry.

JP: [laughs] But I, and I, I feel like I have to wrap this up. Um. So let me do it here, uh, with the implications that this could have for Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. In order to return to the House of Commons, he plans to run for a seat in the Alberta riding of Battle River-Crowfoot. He's made it clear that he's against a divided Canada. He's been very clear about that. But I do imagine that this does put him in a bit of a bind, right?

JASON MARKUSOFF: He's going to win his seat. This-- the party won by 82%, and so he's fine. Um, but he will be asked questions. Uh, in rural Alberta is now separatist country. Um, so he is going to be representing an area where a lot of people want to leave Canada. On the byelection trail, he'll he'll see-- hear a lot of it, and he'll be the voice of these people to Ottawa . Um, and at the same time being a federal party leader who wants to lead Canada when so many of his residents want to leave Canada. Um. He's talked about this already. He said:

SOUNDCLIP

PIERRE POILIEVRE: Look, I'm against separation. I'm a born and raised Albertan. I love Canada. Um, I think we, we need to unite this country. Um. Albertans have a lot of legitimate grievances. I mean, let's be blunt. Their biggest, Canada's biggest industry, which happens to largely be situated in Alberta, has been under attack for the last decade...

JASON MARKUSOFF: And we'll see if that talking point is enough for uh, for the people who will be his new constituents.

JP: Yeah. Okay. Jason, such a pleasure. Thank you.

JASON MARKUSOFF: Always fun, Jayme, thanks.

[Music: Theme]

JP: All right, that is all for today. I'm Jayme Poisson, thanks so much for listening. Talk to you tomorrow.

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Is Alberta headed towards a separation vote? - Transcript

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