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Front Burner Transcript for August 1, 2025

Guest Host: Elaine Chau

ELAINE CHAU: Hi, I'm Elaine Chau, in for Jayme Poisson.

[Music: Theme]

EC: On Wednesday, the Canadian government announced a groundbreaking change in Middle East policy and the future of its relationship with Israel and the Palestinians.

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MARK CARNEY: The deepening suffering of civilians leaves no room for delaying coordinated international action to support peace, security, and the dignity of human life. Preserving a two-state solution means standing with all people who choose peace over violence or terrorism.

EC: Prime Minister Carney announced that Canada is now prepared to recognize the Palestinian state, joining more than 140 countries around the world if certain conditions are met.

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MARK CARNEY: In our judgment, and the judgment of others, is that the prospect of a Palestinian state is literally receding before our eyes.

MARK CARNEY: And so the intention to recognize -- which is what we're saying today -- and working with others to support a Palestinian state, possibility of a Palestine state, re-establishes that opportunity.

EC: The move marks a real shift in Canada's long-standing approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and comes after months of escalating tension between Ottawa and the Netanyahu government. So how would this work? Can national sovereignty prove to be an effective tool to ease the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank? And how does this fit into the larger story of Canada's long-standing policy in the region? Evan Dyer covers foreign affairs for CBC's Parliamentary Bureau, and he's been writing a lot about the war in Gaza.

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EC: Hi Evan.

EVAN DYER: Hi Elaine.

EC: So, Canadian recognition of Palestine is conditional on a number of commitments. Can you walk me through some of those conditions?

EVAN DYER: Really, there are three main ones. The first is a commitment to hold elections in all of the occupied Palestinian territories in the year 2026. Of course, there are a lot of logistical issues that make that unlikely to happen, and Canada understands that. But it's seeking a commitment from the Palestinian Authority that it won't be the obstacle to that happening. The second one has to do with democratic reform and governance in the Palestinian Authority. There hasn't been a real election there for years. And Mahmoud Abbas/Abu Mazen, the head of the Palestinian Authority, has been president for 19 1/2 years, in which time he's lost almost all the credibility that he had to begin with. Corruption is another major issue in the Palestinian Authority. So Canada has sought commitments for reforms there. The election, of course, will deal with the first part of that, but the reforms also would touch on how money is handled and things like that in the Palestinian Authority. And then the third one is a commitment from Palestine that it will be a demilitarized state. There are conditions to be negotiated there. What exactly does that mean? Obviously, the Palestinian Authority needs to have the ability to enforce the law within its own territory. So, it's not the same as being an unarmed state. And I imagine that there will, there will be some talk about that in the future.

EC: Right, right. Because, I mean, there is some loose historical precedent in the context of, like, a peace agreement, that, you know, one party is forbidden from arming Germany and [EVAN: Yeah.] Japan after World War Two--

EVAN DYER: Treaty of Versailles, exactly.

EC: Yeah, yeah. Exactly.

EVAN DYER: Classic example. And of course, as we saw with the Treaty of Versailles, once a country becomes a country in charge of its own government again, once the occupation ends, and it's in charge of its own affairs, it's not hard to slip those restraints. And look at the way that Germany rearmed, for example. So a country can agree to be demilitarized; keeping it demilitarized over time is much harder. But I think that everybody here is also very aware of the balance of power between Israel and a future Palestinian state. Israel is a nuclear power, and there is really no conceivable scenario in which a Palestinian state could challenge Israel militarily.

EC: Do you think this is something on the demilitarization front that you can see them agreeing to?

EVAN DYER: They already agreed to it yesterday in a phone call with Mark Carney. I think the Palestinian Authority probably doesn't like the idea of having to accept this condition. It suggests that Palestine would be a lesser country than Israel, which is not only allowed to have a very large conventional military, but which also, of course, never signed the Non-Proliferation treaty and has nuclear arms. So for them to have to accept these conditions is very far from ideal from their point of view. It does suggest an inferior status. But I think that at the same time, this demand is coming from other European countries too, including the ones in the West that are most favourable to Palestinian statehood. And I think the Palestinians realistically know that this is something that they probably are going to have to concede, at least on paper.

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EC: We've talked a lot on this show about how genocide designations come with certain responsibilities from countries. [EVAN: Yeah.] This is part of why they are so hard to come by historically. When it comes to the recognition of statehood, what are the responsibilities that fall on countries like Canada in this scenario? Does the recognition of statehood bring upon itself a particular set of responsibilities?

EVAN DYER: Not for Canada. I mean, Canada would only have responsibilities to defend a country if it has, for example, a mutual defence pact with that country. Once Palestine becomes a state recognized by Canada and sets up its own government, Canada would be free to enter into treaties with it that would give us obligations. But Canada doesn't automatically have obligations to defend a country that finds itself at war. It does have obligations, however, when rather than just a war between two countries, you see something like a genocide. If there's a genocide going on, those obligations absolutely kick in. But they kick in whether it's a state or not.

EC: Mm-hmm, mm-hmm. In May, the Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported that Israel's strategic affairs minister, Ron Dermer, threatened to annex parts of the West Bank if the U.K. and France recognized the Palestinian state. What kind of reaction have we seen from Israel to Canada's announcement on Wednesday, in particular, in regards to Palestinian statehood?

EVAN DYER: The Israeli ambassador here in Canada said that this is de facto recognition.

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AMBASSADOR IDDO MOED: The Palestinian Authority in itself is not an authority that is responsible, that has done any reforms, that is providing any kind of basic infrastructure for coexistence with Israel. It is rewarding terrorists.

AMBASSADOR IDDO MOED: So when a country like Canada says, well, but we are going to recognize whoever it is on the Palestinian side as a state ... on the ground, it doesn't change a thing. Abbas's commitments, we've heard them so many times before.

EVAN DYER: He's essentially saying that these conditions are really just commitments. And that's true. The conditions aren't going to be met before recognition occurs -- the likeliest date for recognition being September when the UN General Assembly comes together, although they haven't ruled out doing it before then. Obviously, the elections aren't even planned until 2026, and it's hard to see even how they happen then. So, that and the other conditions that have been required, Canada's settling for commitments. Israel has said, well then, in that case, you're just taking nothing. You're getting nothing in return; you're getting de facto recognition. Now, that's been the criticism of the Israeli ambassador, Iddo Moed. But this is part of also an escalating war of rhetoric between Canada and Israel, which has seen Canada... You know, Israel has used some pretty intemperate language, and that has actually aggravated relations between the two countries quite severely. An example of that was back a couple of months ago when, in response to the Canadian, British, French ultimatum and the sanctions that were imposed, [EC: Right.] Israel accused Canada of having provoked that shooting in Washington, D.C., which saw two young people who were involved with the Israeli embassy there, two staffers, shot at an event in Washington, D.C. And then Israel's foreign minister suggested that Canada, Britain and France had encouraged that through taking action against Israel.

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FOREIGN MINISTER GIDEON SAAR: There is a direct line connecting antisemitic and anti-Israeli incitement to this murder. This incitement is also done by leaders and officials of many countries.

EVAN DYER: That fell flat with the diplomats here in Canada, with the government here in Canada. They felt that that was a very intemperate and unfair allegation. And we've only seen things go downhill since then.

EC: I want to get back to that shifting relationship between Canada and Israel in a bit. But first, I just wanted to take a moment to just ask about, like, why now? Why this move by Canada now? You know, 147 out of 193 countries in the United Nations have recognized Palestine as a sovereign state. It's really just a small collection of countries, like mainly in North America, Western Europe and some Pacific nations that have been holdouts on this. So, why do you think it has taken Canada so long to take this step? What do you think this potential breakthrough is really ultimately about?

EVAN DYER: I think it's about what's happening in Gaza, more even than what's happening in the West Bank. Although, of course, you know, a future Palestinian state would mostly be in the West Bank. And although the West Bank is really where the land grabbing is occurring at the moment, that is clearly aimed at sabotaging a two-state solution. You know, they're sort of two separate-- a two-front war being fought by Israel. And the one that's about sabotaging a two-state solution is really being fought more in the West Bank. But it's the famine in Gaza, and the incredibly high death toll in Gaza, and the frustration of Western governments that Israel has not listened to their appeals to allow food in, to change the way that it operates, to be more respectful of civilian life, that has really led to this moment. You know, Canada has always been a supporter of Israel. Since its recognition in May 1949 by Canada, Canada has supported Israel, and over the last 20 years or so, it has become more supportive of Israel. You know, we started to see a pattern of change in, in the Canadian votes at the UN back in about 2004, where Canada, essentially-- There's 16 votes come up every year, sometimes it's 20. [unclear] the question of Palestine votes. And Canada used to vote on pretty much all of them in favour of international law -- which is to say, not in favour of Israel on these matters of occupation and so on. And over time, that changed to Canada either abstaining or voting no on almost every motion.

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REPORTER: Members voted 128 to 9 in favour of declaring the U.S. recognition of Jerusalem as Israel's capital null and void. Canada is one of 35 countries that abstained from voting. In a statement, a spokesperson...

EVAN DYER: That began to roll back a bit in 2019, but it's accelerated since then. And we have seen Canada sort of reaching a conclusion that, with this current government that began on New Year's Eve 2022, there is no more maintaining of a sort of a polite fiction that there is going to be a negotiated two-state solution. They've just been too clear in their rhetoric that they have no intention of permitting a Palestinian state for anybody to continue to pretend that's going to happen without pressure. And I think that that is another reason for this change. You can't continue to pretend that there's going to be progress coming from this Israeli government when its ministers are out there repeatedly saying that they have intentions to annex the land that would be a future Palestinian state.

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EC: As you mentioned, there's really been this escalating tension between Canada and Israel over the course of the last several months. Canada has been critical of Israel's stated war aims, and there was that joint statement that you mentioned from Canada, France, and the U.K., warning punitive action if Israel refused to lift aid restrictions and end their military offensive in Gaza. Netanyahu claimed Canada was on the, quote, "wrong side of humanity" and "the wrong side of history."

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BENJAMIN NETANYAHU: When mass murderers, rapists, baby killers and kidnappers thank you, you're on the wrong side of justice. You're on the wrong side of humanity, and you're on the wrong side of history. Now, these leaders may think that they're advancing peace. They're not. They're emboldening Hamas to continue fighting forever.

EC: Canada followed up by sanctioning Israel's ministers of finance and national security, Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir. Just remind us of what was the substance of those sanctions at the time.

EVAN DYER: So, those two have been in the Israeli government since 2022 when Netanyahu came back to form his sixth government. And the reason that they're there is because he was not able to find any of his traditional coalition partners. People who he had burned bridges with in the past -- Naftali Bennett and other people on the Israeli right -- simply refused to deal with him. And so he was forced to bring in these real extremists into the government. And when I say extremists, I mean quite literally that these are among the most extreme people in Israeli politics. They have been in frequent trouble with their own country's law enforcement. I mean, Itamar Ben-Gvir today directs Israeli police, but, you know, a few years ago, he was under surveillance by Israeli police. He was charged and convicted of terrorism offences, of inciting racism. This is somebody who was involved in threatening to kill Yitzhak Rabin. He stole a hood ornament from a car and claimed that he had taken it off a car in Yitzhak Rabin's garage, and said, we can get the hood ornament, we can get to him too. And of course, Yitzhak Rabin was shot shortly afterwards.

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REPORTER 2: Mr. Rabin was hit as he reached his car. A bodyguard was wounded when he threw himself on the gun. The police hustled the assassin away. Later, he told them that his orders came from God and that he had no regrets because Mr. Rabin's pursuit of peace made him a traitor to his people.

EVAN DYER: Smotrich is an extremely radical settler who opposed the original evacuation of Gaza so violently that he was one of only four people in the country arrested and held in preventative detention by Shin Bet to prevent him carrying out attacks. And that is now the number two person in the Israeli government. So their past already caused a lot of concern in the West, even before October 7th. But once October 7th happened, those two began to make statements, openly genocidal statements that the West simply could not turn a blind eye to. And to give you an example, shortly before Canada sanctioned Smotrich, he said on May 25th, let me quote: "We are being blessed with the opportunity, thank God, of seeing an expansion of the borders of the land of Israel, on all fronts. We are being blessed with the opportunity to blot out the seed of Amalek, a process which is intensifying." And it's very difficult to interpret that statement as anything other than an intent of genocide. So, really, Canada and the other Western countries were painted into a corner by the provocations of these ministers who were not being reined in by Benjamin Netanyahu, who depends on them to keep his coalition together. Because if they leave -- and this is really one of the dynamics that's driving all of this -- if he ends the war in Gaza, they will leave his coalition. The government will fall, and that is the one thing that Benjamin Netanyahu is determined to prevent.

EC: Do you see this plan to recognize Palestinian statehood as essentially kind of the culmination of Canada finally reaching a point where it needs to increase the utmost pressure on Israel? Like as we've talked about, you know, conditions have obviously severely worsened in the last few months.

EVAN DYER: Well, I actually would not see this as the utmost pressure on Israel. I mean, for example, Benjamin Netanyahu himself has not yet been sanctioned. So, there's still quite a bit of pressure that Canada could apply to Israel. Canada has not even imposed an arms embargo on Israel. It has slowed down or stopped most of the trade of arms, but it has not imposed a proper arms embargo on Israel. There are a number of sanctions that Canada can place on Israel, I mean, including trade sanctions. Which, of course, have never even been discussed. So Canada is very far from reaching the point where it's doing the utmost to stop this, but certainly it's doing a lot more than it has ever done in the past. And I think that what we see now is a kind of a recognition in Israel -- or it's, I guess, a belated realization in Israel -- that the country has burned a lot of bridges diplomatically over the last couple of years. And it has gone from a position where it had very strong bipartisan support in the United States to -- through a decision of Benjamin Netanyahu to really put his eggs in the Republican Party basket -- to alienating a large part of the Democratic Party base in the United States. And again, in Canada, too, we saw that support for Israel was a bipartisan issue. You know, there were-- in the 2015 election in this country, you saw Justin Trudeau and Stephen Harper competing with each other to say who was the better friend of Israel. You know, Harper, of course, was famously friendly with Benjamin Netanyahu, and a famously unconditional supporter of Israel.

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STEPHEN HARPER: Through centuries of struggle, the descendants of Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob have endured. And endure they must, for the consequences of failure are great and far-reaching. If one free and democratic society is threatened, all are at risk. And so, as you celebrate the first 65 years of the State of Israel, know this: Canada is your partner, Canada is your friend, and Canada stands with you.

EVAN DYER: But we saw Trudeau's campaign manager, Stephen Bronfman, saying, well, Justin Trudeau has actually been to Israel unlike Stephen Harper. And there was a kind of a competition between the two to be the better friend. We don't see that anymore. We see that in Canada, too, support for Israel is fracturing and becoming more partisan. It's more of a right-wing thing than it used to be. And that's mirrored in many countries around Europe too, where support for Israel has really plummeted. And these diplomatic losses by Israel are why it now finds itself fighting recognitions.

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EC: There's been a lot of questions around whether Canada has upheld its promise to end the sale and shipment of arms to Israel, which is a guarantee that was made last year. The Canadian government continues to maintain this is happening. Rights groups have said that this isn't exactly true. And I know you've done some reporting on this front. And what is the status on that?

EVAN DYER: So a group of researchers were able to show pretty conclusively that Israeli tax authority data contradict Canadian claims about arms sales. The customs codes, which are the same in Israel, Canada, and every other country in the world -- it's called the harmonized system -- record every import going into Israel from every country that exports to Israel. And they clearly show shipments to Israel right up to June of this year [clears throat] under headings like arms and ammunition, military bullets. The government of Canada, though, says, look, this is a miscoding issue; these things are being misrepresented in Israel and are, in fact, benign shipments. And it's very difficult to know the truth about that. I think what I would say about those arms sales that are being disputed is that if there were no arms sales happening at all, you wouldn't have a dispute. And I wouldn't be surprised to see Canadian officials, at a certain point, as this relationship continues to deteriorate -- which I think we're on a trajectory where that's going to happen -- uh, may just say, the simplest thing would just be to declare a complete embargo on arms with Israel. And then we don't have to argue about the nature of shipments that we can't really talk about because of commercial confidentiality. We just say nothing is going, nothing is moving. And I think, you know, we're actually quite close to that. I know that the Canadian government has equipment that it wanted to send back to Israel for repair -- Israeli military equipment that is owned by the Canadian Forces that it hasn't sent because it doesn't want to muddy the waters by sending that kind of offensive equipment. So I think that they may well conclude, as they concluded that recognition became necessary, they may conclude that a full-on simple complete ban on all shipment of arms both ways is the easiest way to deal with these issues.

EC: It would be good to note that the Canadian government itself does not sell arms to Israel but rather regulates the sales between Canadian and Israeli companies. Um, Evan, I want to talk to you more about the question of Palestinian statehood and what that might mean practically. You know, with nearly 700,000 Israeli settlers in the West Bank, a viable two-state solution seems really hard to imagine. Removing them is politically impossible in Israel, while accommodating them undermines Palestinian sovereignty. Some analysts, you know, people who study this, have shifted toward the idea of a single state with [EVAN: Yeah.] equal rights for all. And how do you see these questions being reckoned with? Do you think that, you know, Canada even expects this plan to get that far?

EVAN DYER: I mean, I've seen this recognition criticized by people who say, well, this won't change anything on the ground. And I think it's important to point out that there's no one in the Canadian government who expected Israel to say, oh, okay, well if you recognize it, then we recognize it. You know, nobody expected Israel to respond by pulling settlements out of the West Bank. And that would be true no matter how many countries recognize the state of Palestine. Perhaps the only country that would really make-- bring around that kind of a change would be the United States, which is very far from recognizing Palestine. So, um, that does not exist. That illusion does not exist. And at the same time, Canada doesn't have the illusion that there's probably going to be a 2026 election in the West Bank, Gaza, and East Jerusalem. I mean, for all three of those places have almost insurmountable obstacles to holding an election for different reasons. Gaza, because it's effectively a wasteland under famine conditions with an active war going on. The West Bank is tightly under Israeli occupation. There are roadblocks everywhere. There's also a great deal of violence, which we would be reporting on much more if it were not overshadowed by what's going on in Gaza. And then in East Jerusalem, you know, you're not even allowed to show a Palestinian flag, how would a Palestinian candidate campaign? In East Jerusalem they would be arrested. So, everybody is aware that the practicalities are difficult. And I think that all of the Western governments that are recognizing Palestine also know that this is a symbolic gesture that will only begin to matter once there's a new Israeli government. With this Israeli government, there is no chance of movement towards a two-state solution. But that may change in the future. Inevitably, it will change. At some point in Netanyahu's career, it's going to run its course. And at that point, by having laid down a marker that these annexations will never be recognized. Because once you recognize the state of Palestine, you're locked in. You can't go back, right? Hungary recognizes the state of Palestine, although it's very, you know, close to Netanyahu, because it has a recognition dating back to Soviet times. You can't undo it. And so, if you've recognized the West Bank as Palestinian, then Israel knows you're never going to recognize their settlements. And that gives them less of an incentive to build those settlements. It takes away the illusion that at some point, the world is just going to throw up its hands and say, okay, okay, you win. You can have it. And I think with the one-state solution, I've heard a lot of talk about this over the years. I don't personally think that it's a very likely solution. I think that, you know, the degree of enmity between Israelis and Palestinians, even before the last two years, would have made that very, very difficult. But the last two years have made that almost impossible. And I think that, hard as it is-- And there's no one out there who thinks that there is an easy road to a two-state solution. There's no one who even would claim to see the path to a two-state solution right now. But at the same time, there's pretty wide acceptance in Western capitals, among the Western governments, that there is no other solution. And therefore, they have to keep on trying to keep this one alive. And in order to keep it alive through this very difficult period, where you have the Netanyahu-Smotrich-Ben-Gvir government, recognition became necessary.

EC: Canada certainly isn't doing this in a vacuum. It comes on the heels of similar announcements from France, the U.K. Do you think we're going to see like a broader shift in how the Global North is approaching the question of Palestinian statehood here? Like--

EVAN DYER: Yes. I do. I mean, if you look at a map of the world right now, and you put all the countries that recognize Palestine, one colour, and all those that don't, another colour, what you essentially see is you see the rich Western countries pitted against the rest of the world. So, um, that is likely going to change. I mean, that map is already changing. By September, France and Britain are going to be a different colour and so is Canada. France and Canada, almost certainly, I would say. Britain, maybe, will find a way to back off of this. I think of the three recognition statements, it was the weakest and the most conditional. And France was the least conditional. Canada, somewhere in between. But I think France and Canada are now on a track where they are definitely going to recognize in September. And Britain, almost definitely. So, yeah, I think that we're going to see a kind of a breaking down of that uniform Western support for Israel and of the assumptions and the benefit of the doubt that the West used to give Israel. It's broken down because of the Gaza war. And, you know, there's been so many opportunities over the last two years where the West has appealed to Israel to take one course of action, to, you know, to take between the most extreme or ruthless course of action and one that was less so. You know, Israel seems to have just consistently gone for the most ruthless. And that has just caused exasperation in Western capitals. And a belief that there's, there's no accommodation to be reached with this Israeli government. So, I think we're going to see that map continue to change colour.

EC: Evan Dyer, thank you so much for your time.

EVAN DYER: Great to be with you.

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EC: That's all for today. Front Burner was produced this week by Matthew Amha, Allie Jaynes, Joyita Sengupta, Sam McNulty, Dev Modi, Matt Meuse, Lauren Donnelly, and me. Special thanks to Andrew Kurjata for his help this week. Our YouTube producer is Jon Lee. Music is by Joseph Shabason. Our executive producer is Nick McCabe-Lokos. I'm Elaine Chau. Thanks for listening to Front Burner, and we'll be back on Monday.

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Will Canada recognize Palestinian statehood? - Transcript

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