National affairs panel on winter and rising COVID-19 cases in Canada

Guests: Shachi Kurl, Susan Delacourt, Daniel Beland

RB: Ontario's premier says his province is, in his words, looking down the barrel of another lock down, Quebec's premier has announced a plan to let people gather for Christmas, but also a longer school break than usual. Manitoba has brought in strict new rules for retailers forbidding them from selling non-essential products in shops and strict new limits on gathering's. BC's premier is calling for a ban on non-essential travel and more leadership from Ottawa. It is quite the list as far as all of Canada's public health agency predicts. The country could see 20000 cases a day by the end of December, and that's if Canadians maintain the same number of contacts. Joining me to talk about this and more is this week's National Affairs panel. Shachi Kurl is president of Angus Reid Institute, a nonpartisan and non-profit polling agency. Susan Delacourt is a national columnist with the Toronto Star. And Daniel Belalnd is director of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada. Good morning to all of you.

DANIEL BELAND: Good morning.

SACHI KURL: Good morning.

RB: That was sort of a depressing intro there that I read. I must I must admit I'll start with you, Daniel Beland. So Quebec announced these new measures for schools and Christmas yesterday. It's not taking a month off, which had been on the table at one point. It's more like extending by a few days to allow for some isolation on either side of Christmas. What do you make of the approach that the premier has taken there, Daniel?

DANIEL BELAND: Well, I think it's an approach that may please voters or citizens because residents of the province, especially because they will have a break for Christmas in the sense that they will be able to gather with up to 10 people. But it's a risky from a risky, I think, undertake from a public health perspective. And I do think that the situation could if the situation worsens between now and Christmas, the premier might have to take, change course or take more drastic measures, because this this these few days of break for Christmas is something a bit unusual. And it's not really about public health. It's more about public perceptions. And I think that it's an issue moving forward.

RB: And it's sort of like an acknowledgement that people are going to get together at Christmas anyway and he can't stop them in some ways. Susan Delacourt, let's talk about Ontario. Doug Ford is expected to announce more lockdown's in parts of this province today. What kind of pressure do you think he's under right now?

SUSAN DELACOURT: You heard him telegraphing this all week, and it was almost in the tone of don't make me stop this car, you know. He's been saying that that things are out of control, especially in the Toronto and Peel regions. We expect to see severe lockdowns there. I think, you know, Black Friday really isn't until next Friday, but all week in every news conference, you've heard them warning that today is going to be the day that the hammer is coming down. And we got a little foreshadowing of that with the numbers you mentioned, I think Black Friday without the shopping. The prime minister has made his news conferences sort of the holiday wrecking ones, you know. Oh, yeah, we don't have Thanksgiving. And I think that that. Black Friday usually is an indication of how Christmas is going to be for retailers. I think this is going to be, today is the day that that we realise it was a stark reality that Christmas is not going to be like any other.

RB: As I mentioned there, off the tops of Canada's public health agency. They're unveiling modelling today, but we've already had a look at it. They predict 20,000 cases a day if Canada doesn't clamp down on their contacts. And there's also a warning of 60,000 cases a day by the end of December if people increase their contacts, which would happen around the holiday season unless people do otherwise Shachi Kurl, do Canadians have the stomach for this? Are they or are they just getting really tired?

SACHI KURL: I mean, both. Depends on he depends on which Canadians we're talking to and talking about. So if you look, for example, at restrictions coming in just prior to the new round of restrictions announced Thursday by Premier John Horgan and Dr Barney Henry in British Columbia, British Columbians themselves were most likely to say, hey, restrictions in our province don't go far enough in Quebec. On the other hand, there is a sense that they're more likely to either say, hey, these restrictions are too oppressive, they're going too far, or that the local government is actually striking the right tone. So people really depending on their walk of life, a lot of it, frankly, has to do with age and gender. Younger men are much more likely to say they're not personally worried about getting sick, much less likely to wear a mask inside, around people that that they are sharing a household with. These are the types of of differences and frankly, yawning, cavernous gaps that we're seeing between generations, between regions when it comes to both restrictions and precautions. And so I think part of the challenge for the politicians now is they're not only in the policy makers, as they're not only trying to balance the needs of business, not only trying to acknowledge that the chronic fatigue now that people are experiencing around what is now the eighth month of this crisis, but also the knowledge that they're not getting through to everybody in the same way as effectively. And, you know, marketers spend hundreds of millions of dollars and take months to figure out the right messaging to the right audiences. You've just got the same people from the same podium saying, in essence, the same things over and over again. And it's the losing part of the audience.

RB: So that the prime minister today is making his return to, well, not his return. He lives there to Rideau Cottage. But the press conference today will be outside of his home. And I can't, Susan, imagine that that symbolism is not for something specific, because that's where he was every day when we were under the first wave. What more can he do? I guess and I know we've asked that question many times, but is that sort of it? Is that what he's got?

SUSAN DELACOURT: It's such a shock to be raised in such an interesting question to hear. I I've been really intrigued to watch the tension that is coming out at those podiums. You know, we see the politicians telling people, look, if this is bad, it's kind of your fault. And we have the public basically putting pressure on politicians, you see it in in Ontario Premier Doug Ford's face every day of his news conferences. Listen, it's your fault. And we are in this stage now - I liked how André Picard described it on this show last week - surge and urge. But I think the urging is the interesting part. This is not just a medical experiment that Canada is in right now. It's a sociological one. And how do you change people's behaviour on a dime, which is basically what everybody is going to be asked today.

RB: What do you make of that Daniel Beland that that you know, that these politicians with authority, credibility and leadership are the ones who have to implore people to behave. And but there is personal responsibility in what you know and what we are all doing or not doing.

DANIEL BELAND: No, it's a very difficult thing. It's all about trade-offs. And communications is very important here. And you see, when you look at the how people perceive the measures that have been put in place to fight Covid, you see that there are great discrepancies in public opinion. You see that people right now in Alberta or in Manitoba are not very happy. And people in Quebec also. Quebec has not been performing well since the beginning of the crisis. They seem to be more and more satisfied with the measures that have been enacted. So I think that communications is very important here, what we call risk communications. And it seems that some premiers are better than others at handling this communication start. But beyond public perceptions and communications, because you have to reach out to people and convince them to be prudent and to follow the guidelines, you have some real policy trade-offs and they are difficult. It's a very challenging situation. And don't forget, if you exclude the NSA, can that where the situation is better and people are quite satisfied with the measures that have been enacted with the Internet tech bubble and so forth. If you go Quebec and west of Quebec, you realise that five of the six premiers and governments are right of centre and they tend to emphasise the economy. The exception here, of course, is British Columbia with the NDP and John Horgan. And I think that plays a role in this crisis as well. We don't talk about that so much, but political ideology is a factor. And when you're in when you're [unintelligible] or Doug Ford or Scott Moore or Jason Kennedy or Brian Pallister, you tend to emphasise the economy. And it's something very important that, yes, you put front and centre, but you have the public health crisis and you have to strike a balance between fighting Covid and then helping businesses and helping workers and people who are afraid for their livelihood and people who have been unemployed now for a long time, even if the situation has improved since the spring. So it's a very, very difficult situation for policymakers all across the country.

RB: I would also argue the right of centre premiers are also concerned with personal liberties and personal responsibility, which is, you know, the idea that people will make the right decisions anyway. Let me play a clip of Dr. Howard Njoo. He's the deputy chief public health officer here for Canada, saying this week that that they didn't actually put Covid fatigue into their forecasting models. Take a listen.

SOUNDCLIP

One of the things I certainly learnt is that maybe one thing we didn't take into account, and it's something we're learning about, is sort of the human behavioural aspect, the fact we're all suffering from Covid fatigue. You know, we've been at this for many months and so things which made sense and everyone bought into, you know, wearing a face mask, physical distancing, etc.. Back in April, May, we said letting go in the summer. Now we're having that second wave and it's tough, you know, but how do we get people to understand and appreciate that the situation now is just as severe, if not maybe even worse, compared to what we endured in the spring.

RB: What do you make of that, Shachi, that if you didn't they didn't forecast behaviour, but maybe this was predictable.

SACHI KURL: Well, again, it comes down to human nature, and I think people are becoming inured to numbers, I think they're becoming inured to the on and on ness of it. And what's really interesting to me is even news that we could turn a corner around this by way of a vaccine is actually doing nothing to move numbers on who's planning to get a vaccine. So, you know, we're now into a point where Moderna and Pfizer are saying, hey, we've got these vaccines. They're really, really effective. And yet the number of Canadians who say that they're prepared to put their arm up, their hand up, get a job or be vaccinated as soon as a vaccine is available to them, has actually softened or declined since July and is exactly where it was in September. It hasn't budged at all. So now we're not only into conversations about trying to convince. Canadians who are sceptical or simply turned off to this issue around preventative behaviour. There is also going to be a massive need to communicate the importance of actually getting vaccinated when a vaccine becomes available in order to end it. We don't even know what the herd immunity numbers are going to be. And yet we know that 40 percent of people doing this right away is probably not going to be enough to get the herd immunity.

RB: Let me talk a little bit about domestic travel, because the premier of British Columbia this week called on the prime minister to try and shut that down. He said if you're if you're thinking of coming to B.C. from Quebec and Ontario, look, don't do that. We don't want your visits. And I wonder, Susan Delacourt, you know, I don't know that the prime minister can actually do that. But but should that be a message that people are told from the prime minister or from other premiers that circulating in the country, even within the country right now is not a good idea?

ROSEMARY BARTON: Yes, frankly, you know, I'm one of the people who's surprised that travel is still going on and there is that tension there. But Christmas is a huge time for people to travel that university students want to go home. It's again, a very hard message to deliver. I'm struck, too, by the fact that people are holding contradictory positions in their own minds. It's not just one, you know, left versus right or one area of the country versus another. People are holding contradictory views in their own minds. And I think they're saying I think others have got to really crack down, but not me. I think it would be very good if things got tougher out there to protect me from things, but I'm not going to change my behaviour. And, as Shachi, I'm really struck by the numbers on vaccines. Why would people want to get vaccinated if it means an end to this? And let's be frank, that is the only end to this.

RB: Daniel Beland, what do you think has to be sort of the message then in the weeks ahead as we move towards, as Susan calls it, Black Friday and as we move towards the holiday season where people are, I think Susan's right, going to try and somehow justify in their own minds that the getting together with their family will be OK.

DANIEL BELAND: Yes, well, the numbers that were released yesterday are pretty dire. So if we increase contacts, that will become much, much worse. And I think that this is something that needs to be hammered and explain really concretely what this will mean for people who are especially vulnerable and on people, how many people could die and more people could die. And we have also to give people hope. We talk about vaccines. We have to now very promising vaccines. It seems that we might be able to start distributing them sometimes early, sometimes next year. So we have also to give people hope and start to prepare them to a vaccination campaign and fight prejudice against vaccines, because there are other people out there who believe in all sorts of conspiracy theories. It's actually the percentage of people who believe in some of these theories is alarming. It's really high, higher than I expected. An you have to start preparing people also for the what will happen later in terms of vaccination and tell them, look, this is short term sacrifices. Maybe you won't get together with your family or your extended family during the holiday season. But, you know, there is hope because vaccines are coming and we are doing everything we can to make sure they will be available fast and will distribute them and that would be safe and that you and your family later on would be able to get together and with your friends and and that life will go back to normal. It won't be exactly identical to, I think, what was before the pandemic, at least for a while. But we have to give people hope as well and tell them that this is a trade off short term sacrifices and long term hope.

RB: Let me just bring in the opposition a little bit, because the prime minister did brief opposition leaders last night about the new modernly numbers because they are so dire. After getting briefed, the leader of the official opposition, Erin O'Toole, put out a statement saying the following, What struck me was that after 11 months of after 11 months about the spread of Covid emerged, after thousands of jobs have been lost and hundreds of billions of dollars have been added to the national debt, we as a country are worse off than we were at the start of the pandemic. That's Erin O'Toole commenting after meeting with the prime minister yesterday. Susan, do you do you think that that is the right approach for the opposition parties who at the beginning of this were very gung ho to help out and are now being far more critical?

ROSEMARY BARTON: This speaks to, I think, the sense of frustration that we've all been talking about, somebody wants somebody to get the blame for the situation we're in now. It's a risky proposition, though, too. Shachi would know this better than me. But I think public opinion anecdotally for me is that people don't have a whole lot of time for partisan fighting right now. They're watching the scene in the United States and thinking, that's crazy. And here in Canada, I think polarising around this issue might be the wrong strategy for the dark winter ahead.

RB: Yes, it's a fine balance. Shachi, I'll end with you in about a minute to hold the government to account without making Canadians angry that you're not focussed on things.

SACHI KURL: Right. And it's tough. But at the same time, there is communicating to Canadians across the political spectrum and there's communicating to your base. And so Erin O'Toole may not be all that interested in ensuring that that he's maybe trying to reach across the political divide or position himself as a prime minister in waiting who could manage this crisis better. But he is trying to I think at the same time, say to his own voters, his own hardcore base has a loyal base and say, hey, I'm still here, I'm still fighting the good fight. And we see little bits and pieces of this. So, yes, opposition parties can't do a lot in terms of putting their hand up and saying, well, somehow, magically, I'd wave a wand and make all of this go away and do a better job of handling it. But there are going to be times where they point out gaps or problems with slowness or a lack of government responses, as they have done around response for small businesses and small business owners and the belief that they need. It's also why we're seeing the climate change legislation come out from this liberal government, because they need to shore up their green base and their left of centre base and reassure swing voters for whom climate change is important, that, hey, we haven't forgotten about this. It's why the conservatives passed the China motion and said we have to get tough on that issue again on Covid, but one that plays to base at a time where nothing is political but of course, everything is political, even in our [unintelligible].

RB: I'm glad you brought up climate change because I didn't even get there. But we snuck it in in a line at least. Thank you all very much for this this morning. I do appreciate that. Shachi Kurl is president of Angus Reid, the non-partisan, non-profit polling agency. Susan Delacourt, national columnist with the Toronto Star, and Daniel Beland, who I did not know before this morning. So nice to meet you, is director of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada. The CBC News is next then.

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[Noise and cheers]

RB: Making history is the first man with Down syndrome to cross the Ironmen finish line, Ironman Chris Nikic and his father Nik. I'll speak with them in six minutes. I'm Rosemary Barton in today for Matt Galloway. And you are listening to The Current.

Chris Nikic smashes record — and stigma — as 1st person with Down syndrome to finish Ironman triathlon

Guests: Chris Nikic, Nik Nikic

RB: Hello there, I'm Rosemary Barton in today for Matt Galloway, and you're listening to The Current.

[Music: Theme]

RB: Still to come, Sweden's experiment with not shutting down during covid-19 comes to a close. We'll ask what they got wrong and right. But first, the Iron Man.

[Music: Theme]

SOUNDCLIP

[Noise and cheering]

RB: Yes, crossing the finish line at the Ironman triathlon is a huge achievement, an extreme test of both physical and mental endurance. But on top of the gruelling swim cycle and marathon race, one athlete has a new record, 21 year old Chris Nikic, which became the first person with Down syndrome to compete in and complete the race. Chris and his father, Nik, are joining me from their home near Orlando, Florida. Hello to both of you.

CHRIS NIKIC: Hi.

NIK NIKIC: Hi, nice to be here.

RB: Nice to meet you. Chris, that was that moment, I think, at the end there. How were you feeling when you finally crossed the finish line?

CHRIS NIKIC: I felt fine. There's a moment [unintelligible] my mom wasn't there so she sent me angels. My culture, I feel so proud to be part of this.

RB: Your mom wasn't there, is that what you were saying?

CHRIS NIKIC: Yes.

NIK NIKIC: Yes and she sent angels to protect them.

RB: Owe. Nik, what was it like for you to see Chris cross the finish line?

NIK NIKIC: It was amazing. It was a sense of peace because I believed and saw what he's capable of. And he showed us that he could be independent, he could take care of himself, and that he can do Iron Man, he could do anything. So it was just an amazing feeling.

RB: Yes. I mean, people should know that, Chris, that you finished it in 16 hours, 46 minutes and nine seconds, which is under 14 minutes under the 17 hour Cut-Off time. I don't think I could have done this, Chris. How hard is it?

CHRIS NIKIC: So the bike was hard [unintelligible].

RB: The bike.

CHRIS NIKIC: The seat. I was sitting for hours.

NIK NIKIC: The seat hurts for eight hours.

RB: So the butt, your butt goes numb. Chris.

NIK NIKIC: Yes.

CHRIS NIKIC: Yes. And then [unintelligible].

NIK NIKIC: Fire ants bites him, 40. So other than that it was a good race.

RB: I read about that. So you and you, you also get off your bike to take a drink of water too. And so that's when the fire ants got you there.

NIK NIKIC: Yes. He has to get off in order to take nutrition and he's standing on an ant pile. And by the time he was done taking his nutrition, they realised they were ants all over him, eating, biting him off, and then they had to clean him up.

RB: Oh my God. That's bad luck. Did you at any point, Chris, feel like you should give up?

CHRIS NIKIC: No, I just asked myself [unintelligible].

NIK NIKIC: Why don't you quit?

CHRIS NIKIC: Because it's my dream.

NIK NIKIC: Because of your dreams, you want to tell her about your dreams?

RB: Please do.

CHRIS NIKIC: The dream is [unintelligible], to have a company, to own a car, to marry a smoking hot blonde like my mom.

RB: We have to make sure everyone heard that last part. You said you want to marry a smoking hot blonde wife.

NIK NIKIC: Like his mom. He wants my house, my car, and he wants a smoking hot blonde like his mother. So he wants my life.

RB: Those are pretty good goals. Those are pretty good goals, Chris.

NIK NIKIC: He's laughing.

RB: Well, Chris, I said I was going to embarrass you a little bit. So let me let me do that now. I did look at the pictures of you. You're pretty buff.

CHRIS NIKIC: Yup [laughs].

RB: How hard was the training? Because this is really, this is really incredible to think about doing this much in one go. How did you approach the training? I'll ask you, Chris, and then you, Nik.

CHRIS NIKIC: I am proud one percent. So I do one percent. Two hours of sit ups.

RB: One percent.

CHRIS NIKIC: Yes. Then two hours one percent, two hours of sit ups.

RB: Two hours of sit ups.

CHRIS NIKIC: Yes.

RB: Oh God. Wow.

NIK NIKIC: So everything for him is about just progressive improvement, one percent a day, every day for two years. That's how he got from Zero to Ironman. He just stayed steady. He doesn't compromise. He doesn't complain. He doesn't push back. He just, every day he looks at what he did the day before, the week before. And he just he works a little bit harder to just get a little bit better. And his success is really the culmination of consistent effort over two years.

RB: And why the one percent better, Nik, why did you why did you both decide that that was the best way to approach this?

NIK NIKIC: Well, because psychologically, nobody likes pain and one percent improvement is just enough to improve without actually causing any physical pain because you're not doing much more than you've done before. So you don't have muscle soreness, you don't have mental fatigue, you don't have any of the things associated when you push too hard. And so we decided that we were going to focus on this thing long term, make it fun, make it gradual and make it a permanent lifestyle habit. And so by eliminating the pain that's associated with the way most people train, Chris was able to sustain the effort for a longer period of time. And then the momentum kicked in, the compounding effect kicked in. And so he's literally able to train and develop without creating any short term pain or any long term residual pain. Even after the Ironman, by the next day, two days later, he was fine because he's been trained that way.

RB: That's great, Chris. And what is your favourite exercise to do? I don't know. Out of the three, the Ironman ones, or maybe there's something else that you like to do.

CHRIS NIKIC: I like to run.

NIK NIKIC: Tell her why you like to run better.

CHRIS NIKIC: Those are, it's for butt.

NIK NIKIC: Stop talking about your butt.

CHRIS NIKIC: Well, it's the truth.

NIK NIKIC: You're on radio. You can't talk about butt.

RB: I get it. It's less intense on the butt. I got it [laughs].

CHRIS NIKIC: Thank you.

RB: Nik, what was the goal here other than to, you know, give make sure Chris had stays healthy and has something that he loves to do, which he clearly does. What was the what was the actual goal?

NIK NIKIC: Well, when we first started, the real goal was just getting in shape and getting involved in the community or getting involved with other athletes and Special Olympics. So it was just to make some friends and get in shape. And that's all we did for the first year. And then after the first year, also, we started talking about these big dreams of living independently and all these other things that he wanted in life. And then I said, well, Chris, then we got to do something big in order to get such big dreams. And that's when we started thinking about what could he do to make a living and the concept of doing public speaking, which he did last year. And he was just he hit a home run. We said, well, what if he did something amazing that would give them a story to tell? That would be inspirational. And that's how Iron Man came along. We said, look, big dreams need big goals. And so we set the goals for him to do an Ironman and started training with the idea for him to be independent, make his own living. But also now it's turned into something much bigger, which is a platform for him to be able to share with others like him and parents like me and my wife, to be able to give us all some hope that things are amazing, things are possible for our kids. And so for him, it started out as a personal goal and a personal dream. But it's morphed into something much bigger where he now has a purpose and a platform in order to make a difference with other people like him.

RB: And Chris, did you realise that was happening or were you just training to do a race or did you think this would be something bigger, something better than that person go through so soon?

CHRIS NIKIC: It was hard to go those two races.

NIK NIKIC: Yes, it's hard. So, Chris, tell her when you started to feel the bigger dream, when you started reading all the Instagram messages from all the parents with kids with special needs to tell her what you read and how it made you feel.

CHRIS NIKIC: So I've been reading messages saying they want their children like me.

NIK NIKIC: He started reading all these messages from parents like us that said he's a hero to their children and they want their children to be like him and that he's giving them hope. And so the more he read, the more inspired he became because he started to recognise there was something else going on through his effort that was impacting. And then he would see all the pictures and all the posts that they would share with him. And over a period of months, all of those messages really started to get to him and. It started to transform his vision of what was going on.

RB: Did you ever think that you would be that kind of person, Chris, that you would be that important for other kids?

CHRIS NIKIC: I think so.

NIK NIKIC: You think so? You worked enough and now you believe it.

RB: You're confident. I like that. Nik, was with Chris, always athletic growing up or, you know, and I guess this determines because this is what this is really about, this race. It's not just being athletic. It's being having such strong will.

NIK NIKIC: Yes, well, it's interesting because he's always been involved in sports. He loves sports, but we never saw any real athletic ability. In fact, when he first started the triathlon a little over two years ago, the first race for Special Olympics, there were four athletes and Chris finished last. So he was the least likely to actually achieve this. He didn't have any athletic ability. He didn't have any determination. What happened over the last two years, and this is the good news for everybody, is he was able to develop both through perseverance and hard work and consistent improvement. Over time, he was able to develop mental toughness. He was able to develop physical toughness, and he was able to develop, you know, muscles and physical abilities that we never thought were possible. And then even more valuable at this point, what we're seeing through all these interviews as he's talking to people, his cognitive ability is starting to develop in a way we never thought possible. And so now he's just having conversations and interviews with people, something he's never been able to do before. But over the last couple, three months, we've seen amazing progress. And our objective for the next couple of years is to really test the limits on the cognitive side, to see how the physical and the cognitive come together, because honestly, our kids with Down syndrome, you know, they're all the perceptions are they can't do anything physically and they can't do anything intellectually. And I think Chris is going to, you know, change a lot of those perceptions. But they're all being changed through hard work, through effort to perseverance. And that came a little bit at a time, one percent of the time. I know people look at the end story, but really what they should look at is the progression of it. And we'd love to share more of that to show them that, look, he made very little progress in the first year, but he built a foundation. And the more he stuck with it, the more progress he made. But it didn't happen overnight. It came very slowly.

RB: And were there any health setbacks during this two year period at all?

NIK NIKIC: Sure, he got sick a bunch of times. He fell off his bike three times now for, you know, on the thing, the last time he fell off his bike, ended up in the hospital with 14 stitches and had to take two weeks off from training. So he's had a lot of obstacles along the way that have tried to derail him. But he just gets right back on it and continues.

RB: Chris, as the first person with Down syndrome to complete the Ironman, what does that mean to you? I mean, do you do you think about that and what that means to you?

CHRIS NIKIC: The emotional rollercoaster like my father said. I am now part of the Ironman family. Then I went to a party.

NIK NIKIC: Then he went to a party, big party for him. That's really the most important thing to him, is being included, the parties, the ladies, the fun. Really, it's about inclusion for him. It's about feeling like he's welcomed. And that's really what he's communicating.

RB: Nik, what does it mean for you that that your son was able to do this? I mean, beyond the things that you've said about his progress and his physical ability, but emotionally, what does it mean for you?

NIK NIKIC: Yes, emotionally, it means, you know, my wife and I can be a little more peace. It means parents like us could be a little more at peace, realising what's possible. And it really is one of those things that most of most parents take for granted, you know, because their kids are going to be independent and take care of themselves. But not for families like us who have children with special needs. It's a whole different world. And so what it means is that a different world of possibility has opened up for us.

RB: And Chris, what about these goals? You know, get a car, get a house or how far away how close are you to those things?

CHRIS NIKIC: Like, the future.

NIK NIKIC: tell you when you're buying your car.

CHRIS NIKIC: On...

NIK NIKIC: Saturday.

RB: Saturday!

CHRIS NIKIC: I'm buying car on Saturday.

NIK NIKIC: And he's been offered public speaking engagements and contracts with big companies. So he might be close to making enough money to buy a house. And then where are you with smoking hot blonde? Are you close?

CHRIS NIKIC: Yes.

NIK NIKIC: Well, did you meet any?

CHRIS NIKIC: I think so.

NIK NIKIC: You think so, okay. He's met them.

RB: Oh, well, go back to the car for a minute. What are you buying?

CHRIS NIKIC: A white car.

NIK NIKIC: A Chevy.

RB: That's practical. Good. And do you already know how to drive or you have to learn to drive.

CHRIS NIKIC: No

NIK NIKIC: No, not next stop. We're going to learn how to drive.

RB: What are you looking forward to next in your life, Chris. Like I mean, are you going to keep doing these kinds of competitions? I guess so.

CHRIS NIKIC: Yes.

NIK NIKIC: What's next? Tell her.

CHRIS NIKIC: I'll be doing the Hawaii Ironman.

NIK NIKIC: Hawaii Ironman is next, next year.

CHRIS NIKIC: Oh, fantastic.

NIK NIKIC: And then what did you just get invited to today?

CHRIS NIKIC: I just got invited to a contract offer.

NIK NIKIC: But what about the USA Games?

CHRIS NIKIC: And I got to go to USA.

NIK NIKIC: USA Special Olympics Games in 2022 for North America

RB: Oh! Amazing. You must be thrilled, Chris.

CHRIS NIKIC: Oh, yes.

NIK NIKIC: Exciting times.

RB: It is exciting and important, too. I mean, I think one of the reasons why this story hit home for me and for so many people is we're not living in the best of times right now. So to see something this uplifting and inspiring is is pretty is pretty great. I'm sure you didn't think about that when you embarked on this journey, Nik.

NIK NIKIC: Well, you know, when this whole thing started in February, everything was on track and then in March, everything shut down. And so everybody told us that we should just slow down and delay it till the coronaviruses over. And, you know, one lesson I teach my kids is you don't let external factors, whether it be a pandemic or another person's opinion, affect your goals and dreams. So I taught him that he needed to stay on track. And so we found ways to keep training when everybody else slowed down and, you know, said events weren't going to happen. So we trained in our neighbourhood. We trained in our pool. We we did, you know, all the strange stuff in our house. And we just found ways to keep finding ways to keep going. And then in May, when the half Ironman was cancelled in Panama City, we did our own. We made a makeshift half Ironman in Claremont, Florida. We had about 100 people show up and we ended up doing it. And that's where a lot of the attention started to happen, because people noticed that while everybody else was waiting, he wasn't waiting. His dreams were too important to him and he wanted to sustain that. And part of what we're teaching him is, you know, go after your dreams, go after your goals. Don't let external factors influence you. And so that's what he did during a time of difficulty for everybody. He's actually had the best year of his life and accomplished amazing things. So we just looked at it a little differently, I think, than everybody else. We look at it as an opportunity instead of as a as a negative thing.

RB: And Nik, I see you in some of the videos training along with Chris. I don't know if you were fit before, if you had to get fit with him, but how important was it for you to to be there during most of that with him?

NIK NIKIC: Well, we started together to get fit and then I started getting hurt, you know, being my age and all the back problems, and I started falling behind. But I've continued to kind of come back. And he has helped me get in amazing shape, much better than I've been in a long time. So I try to keep up with him. I can't he just gets stronger and stronger every day. But at the end of the day, he has helped me become a better person and, you know, become better.

RB: How does that make you feel, hearing that, Chris?

NIK NIKIC: Oh, how does that make you feel, making your daddy better?

CHRIS NIKIC: No, no. He's still a slug.

NIK NIKIC: I'm still a slug. That's how he makes me feel.

RB: [Laughs].

CHRIS NIKIC: Old, well and frail.

NIK NIKIC: I'm an old, weak and frail slug for him.

RB: Yes, well, that we can't all be as fast as you, Chris. What did you do with your your medal? I think you get a medal at the end of the Ironman.

CHRIS NIKIC: I gave it to my mom.

NIK NIKIC: Oh why did you give it to your mom baby?

CHRIS NIKIC: [Unintelligible].

NIK NIKIC: Yes, because your mom is your example of the kind of wife you want. She's been the best woman in the world to you. She did everything to bring them up to this point. I just kind of got involved the last two years. I was too busy with work, but his mom is everything to him. She's the centre of his world. She was there for everything he's ever needed his whole life. So he promised her while he was training that the first medal goes to her.

RB: That's pretty nice, Chris.

CHRIS NIKIC: Yes.

RB: I'm going to leave it there, I this has been a very inspiring story, I hope you both know how much people need to hear things like this right now. So it couldn't be better timed.

NIK NIKIC: Thank you. Thank you for inviting us.

RB: Thank you. And hey, Chris.

CHRIS NIKIC: Yes.

RB: You be careful driving. Good luck with the car purchase and good luck finding the hot blonde wife.

CHRIS NIKIC: Thanks.

RB: OK, I'm going to follow you on Instagram to keep track on all that.

NIK NIKIC: Thank you so much.

RB: OK, congratulations to both of you. Thanks.

CHRIS NIKIC: Thank you.

NIK NIKIC: Bye, Have a good day.

RB: Chris Nikic is the first person with Down syndrome to finish the Ironman triathlon. And Nik Nikic is his father. So you may have, I'm guessing, heard that former U.S. President Barack Obama released his memoir this week, A Promised Land. It's already breaking sales records with close to one million copies sold the first day. Well, President Obama is only doing one Canadian interview, and you'll hear it right here on The Current on Monday. That's pretty exciting. Matt Galloway talks with him about the tumultuous politics of the day, racial anxieties in the U.S., Canada, U.S. relations, of course. And they also get kind of personal, including some talk about music. That's coming up on Monday. And that's going to be good. In the meantime, in his memoir. President Obama includes a playlist of some of his most memorable songs of his years in office. Here's a track off that list. Bob Dylan, The Times. They are a changing.

SOUNDCLIP

[Song]

RB: Bob Dylan from Barack Obama's playlist, that's in his new book, A Promised Land, I'm more in favour of the Stevie Wonder tracks myself. But anyway, tune in Monday to hear Matt Galloway conversation with the former president. It's the only Canadian interview you'll hear with him. And it will be right here on The Current, coming up after your regional update.

SOUNDCLIP

Of course, this death toll is highly regrettable and it's a terrible thing that we're seeing. On the other hand, we're not too sure a strict lockdown would have changed so much.

RB: Sweden stretched the limits of its open society during Covid-19 with schools and shops remaining open. It was almost life as usual, but the Swedish experiment is now winding down as the government imposes new month long restrictions to deal with new record numbers of infections. I'm Rosemary Barton and you are listening to The Current.

The pros and cons of Sweden’s pandemic approach, André Picard on the possibility of school closures.

Guests: Dr. Anna Mia Ekstrom, Andrew Ewing, Andre Picard

RB: Hello, I'm Rosemary Barton in today for Matt Galloway, and you're listening to The Current. Since very early in the pandemic, one European country has been under scrutiny for its controversial coronavirus strategy, Sweden. It never imposed a full scale lockdown. It left schools and businesses open. It relied on people to change their behaviour rather than imposing rules and so life carried on. In some ways, the strategy appeared to work. Cases of Covid-19 dropped drastically in Sweden during the summer and then the early fall. But now they are rising sharply and the Swedish government has imposed the strictest regulations there so far. Starting November 24th, it will limit public gatherings to just eight people, down from 50. Alcohol sales in bars and restaurants will be banned after 10 p.m. and people are being urged to stay home and cancel their social plans. Earlier this week, Sweden's state epidemiologist said this about striking the right balance between locking down and looser restrictions.

SOUNDCLIP

This long term, seeing on the low scale that what we do in Sweden is much more sustainable and would not cause this enormous difference in the multiple cases getting to health care in the same way. So I think both Norway and Denmark are now very concerned about how do you stop this complete lockdown in a way so you don't cause this wave to come immediately when you start loosening up.

RB: Within Sweden, there are critics of the country's approach, but also defenders. Dr. Anna Mia Ekstrom is a professor of global infectious disease epidemiology and an infectious disease physician at the Karolinska Institute in Stockholm, Sweden. Hello, Doctor.

DR. ANNA MIA EKSTROM: Hello.

RB: So tell me how you think the government's strategy is working. I would point out that today you've had a record number of cases, 7240 cases today. How do you think the strategy is working?

DR. ANNA MIA EKSTROM: Well, I think the strategy we have implemented in the spring and also now is actually been right for Sweden and because we're also testing 10 times more than we did in the spring. So it's hard to actually compare the number of cases today there and the number of cases we saw in March and April since we had very poor testing capacity actually at the time. So my assumption, I think it's similar to those people and estimates is that if we had many more cases in the spring, actually, than we probably have now, and that those invisible from the death rates that were much higher in the spring than they are now.

RB: OK, well, that's a fair point. But still, the government obviously feels that something isn't working compared to what happened in the spring. So what new restrictions have they brought in to deal with it?

DR. ANNA MIA EKSTROM: Yes, so actually, we've had a very similar approach to many other countries, although we didn't have a sharp lockdown, and so that the approach has really been to mitigate rather than suppress the transmission in a voluntary way, rather than forcing people and using mandatory restrictions. And I think it's the same approach, really. That's what has changed, is that the number of people that can meet the social gathering has been reduced from 16 to eight. And also the bars have been closed from 10:00 p.m. and otherwise it is actually very similar to the spring.

RB: I mean, I think everyone's in the game of mitigation, but, you know, if I look at what's happening in Canada versus the way Sweden has approached it, we have to wear masks pretty much everywhere. That is not the case in Sweden. There are parts of this country now where you're told not to leave your house for anything but grocery shop. So maybe I'll start with the masks issue. Why is that not just something that everyone is doing, given the science behind it?

DR. ANNA MIA EKSTROM: Well, when you look at this, I think the reviews that are referred to by the Swedish public health agency that I've read and there are other measures that are much more effective and those are sort of keeping social distance and reduce the social gatherings and also a close sort of make sure people have meet in large groups and keeping a social justice are more important measures. And also masks can absolutely make a difference if you're able to to keep social studies. So that's been the reasoning. But I think there's too much focus on the masks as compared to social distancing, which seems to be a much more effective approach, and also to ensure that you have protective equipment in hospitals and care settings and tests enough so that you can sort of trace cases. So I think that's been the approach in Sweden that people are asked to really follow these recommendations. And there's a cultural difference. I study that I do my public health training at Harvard in the United States. And there's an obvious cultural difference in terms of how much trust people put on government advice. Where Swedes that actually tend to follow government device to a very large extent, even though they're not mandatory. And we saw a huge change in people's behaviour when these recommendations came in the spring with over 90 percent actually really reducing their social and events, working from home and public transport was more or less empty and older students had distance learning. A lot of things actually changed.

RB: Yes, I take your point. I think you might see similarities between Canadian behaviour because we tend to listen closely to governments as well. But this idea of a social contract, in spite of what you said about increased testing, maybe explaining that the high record number of cases now clearly something clearly something has happened. Clearly, citizens are now not behaving as well as the government would have hoped. Wouldn't you agree that the perhaps that that social contract has broken down a bit?

DR. ANNA MIA EKSTROM: Yes, I think there is a change because during the summer we had very, very few cases and almost no deaths. And I think people relaxed a bit then. But now when the weather and the climate has changed to go, we were going we're approaching winter. We know that people are spending much more time indoors. And also the air is drier, which increases the risk of transmission a lot. And I think this is actually the main explanation and also that people are, yes, a bit tired of Covid in general. I think that's true for people all over the world actually do. My assumption is that people will take these measures much more seriously. And I see a huge difference already in society where most people are working from home if they have the possibility to do so and the public transport is actually quite empty.

RB: Right. Do you think that your country, though, given how the first wave went, do you think that you could have been better prepared for what is happening now?

DR. ANNA MIA EKSTROM: I don't think so, actually, because I think we weren't quite ill prepared in the spring, there was a huge lack of testing capacity, which lack of protective equipment, even in health care settings. I am hopeful that both finishes and work in the hospital. And there weren't enough protective equipment really in terms of masks and gowns, either for health care staff and even less so in elderly care, where we saw more deaths. So elderly care, the structure elderly care was also not set up for the sort of spread. With hourly employees that couldn't afford to stay at home, whether was diplomatic and there wasn't enough protection or preparedness for this for sure. But now we would know much more about the virus and how to treat people and know how to protect ourselves. I think we are much, much better prepared to handle the epidemic than we were in the spring where we did the initial really high mortality rates in March and April. That declined quite dramatically once the measures kicked in. And so we have if you look at the trends, we have very, very good numbers, very, very low numbers for months with actually an overall mortality in the country, which was much less than normal. I mean, you need to keep in mind that less than three percent of all deaths in the world this year have been caused by Covid. Most people die from something else. And something that has been very important to Sweden is to safeguard the other determinants of health. And are not being too much impacted by our Covid restrictions. And the children, for example, are protected from the negative effects of school closures.

RB: All right. I've got to leave it there. Dr. Ekstrom, thank you so much. I do appreciate your perspective. That's Dr. Anna Mia Ekstrom, professor of Global Infectious Disease Epidemiology and infectious disease physician at the Karolinska Institute in Stockholm, Sweden. And the reason I want to get to our next guest is Andrew Ewing is a professor of molecular biology and chemistry at the University of Guttenberg and a member of the Swedish Academy of Sciences. And he's got a different perspective. Nice to talk with you this morning, Professor.

ANDREW EWING: Hello, Rosemary, how are you?

RB: I'm good. Well, that deep sigh, I wonder, is that in response to what you just heard there from Dr. Ekstrom?

ANDREW EWING: Quite a bit.

RB: Tell me why. Tell me what you think. Yeah. Tell me what is your primary concern right now for Sweden?

ANDREW EWING: Well, my primary concern is moving too slowly, another primary concern is that we are not embracing science. OK, there are some serious myths that are being propagated here and refusing science. I agree with some of the things that Dr. Ekstrom said, but most of it I disagree with. And I there's some there's also things I mean, we are testing more than we were in the-- our testing capacity has been criticized here in Sweden for not being enough, we are significantly less confident than our neighbours especially, and we have run [cutting] in testing and we're still gaining in cases. I mean, we've been testing about the same now for while the cases going out, shooting up. The record of the deaths today were something I think 66 deaths today. But deaths are hard to tell. So you need a couple of weeks to tell where we are, but I would guess at average [cutting] at this point, but going up very rapidly and I think we all reached the same point this as we did the spring and maybe even higher if we don't move to some restrictions. I really hope to.

RB: Professor, I should say you're cutting out a little bit. So we will try and struggle along a little bit longer. One of the things that the doctor mentioned and I think is interesting is that Sweden really wanted to trust citizens to do the right thing. And that may have worked for a time, but it seems to have worn off a bit. Was Sweden wrong to embark on that social contract?

ANDREW EWING: I think the social contract for the first time could have worked if they had just encouraged the people to do more than they did encourage them. And I think that might have worked because there is this social contract in Sweden, but it has broken down. And there are, if you look at the surveys they did, which they always like to quote, to say 80 percent of the population was following the public health authorities recommendations. Actually, the surveys were a series of questions, not just are you following the recommendations, but are you partially sort of or mostly following the recommendations? And they include all those responses when they do that. So it's not really clear to me that we follow them as well as they said. But they do better in the spring. About almost all the elderly, though, and a lot of other people have been self isolating. And so you've had a virtual lockdown as a technical college for about 30 percent, I guess, of the population for eight, nine months. I mean, this is not sustainable. And so it's no wonder that people are starting to go against it.

RB: Yes. Everybody in the world probably feeling that. I was a little surprised to hear the doctor's comments on the mask. I understand that a mask order, you know, can be voluntary or mandatory. But it would seem that the science is pretty clear about mask wearing at this stage. Are people not wearing masks in Sweden? What is your assessment?

ANDREW EWING: Virtually No. One, you go on to the to the mall and you'll see maybe three or four people as you walk down the mall out of 100. It's very small. People are not wearing masks. They don't wear masks. They're not mandatory in most hospitals and a lot of doctors and so forth in hospitals do not wear them. I just talked about gynaecologist who was walking around all day seeing patients last week and just came back. This is where [cutting] fought very hard and just managed to get a manager of that, her and her colleagues, the immediate colleagues, wear masks, they were telling them they weren't going to allow them to wear them. This has been a moscona out of Sweden. They have [cutting].

RB: Professor sorry, it's a little bit hard to hear you. I realise that you are in Sweden, but that's OK. Let me ask one more question. You know, reading about this, it does seem as though there is an enormous amount of trust placed in the chief epidemiologist of Sweden that people really don't question him. How much is that playing into the approach and the acceptance of Swedes on in terms of what's happening or are people starting to get worried?

ANDREW EWING: I think some people are starting to get worried, and certainly the government is getting worried. You can see that there's that seems to be an internal struggle in the government right now between this. But he has had a very high level of popularity because Swedes typically go with the public authorities. This is the way it's worked. But he has propagated myths about what's happening. He's propagated the myth of that site that children do not infect other people with the disease. This is clearly shown in the science not to not be true. He's propagated the myth that next, working on their own website, they have 37 references, 33 of them are very strong on masks working. And I have to say masks are not yet- you can wear them if they want to. They really should be mandatory like seatbelts and like drunk driving. Your mask protects me and my mask protects you. I'm not wearing a mask can infect you or someone else down the line and cost a life just like driving drunk. Yes, it's a very simple analogy.

RB: My mask is sitting here with me in the studio, Mr. Ewing. But let me just let me just end on this, Professor. What has to happen, do you think, in order for Sweden to to get a handle on these record new numbers?

ANDREW EWING: I think that's I mean, the most drastic action is to [cutting] down for maybe four weeks and see if we can get going as we deem that it's completely out of control and it pretty close. I'm not a fan of Lockdowns. I think they can do a lot of damage, too. I would say at least we need to close restaurants, the bars, the gyms, et cetera, for about four weeks. [Cutting] students over 10 years old to go to online until Christmas. It's not a long time. Summer break is ten weeks. Actually, Dr. Ekstrom said made this comment hurting those children [cutting] summer break. And Finland did a study and they were closed in the spring and came back and said that the well-being of the children was higher than in Sweden. And so I said we need to get everyone to wear a mask. And do you source control, as I was saying, and [cutting] this under control.

RB: Professor, thank you so much. I do appreciate you giving us the perspective from Sweden this morning. That's Andrew Ewing, a professor of molecular biology and chemistry at the University of Gothenburg. Well, here in Canada, provincial leaders are also trying to carve out the best way forward to stop the spread of covid-19. This week, several provinces announced increased restrictions. Were expected to hear more today. Quebec said it's going to let people see some family over Christmas if they are strict about quarantine before and after. The Globe and Mail health columnist Andre Picard is here to walk us through it all. I don't know how I luck out and get to talk to you every time I guest host Andre, but good morning to you. Thanks for being here.

ANDRE PICARD: And thank you.

RB: I just want to get you to weigh in there on Sweden, because that was two very different perspectives and lots of questions about whether what Sweden has done is still working. What can we take away from that experience?

ANDRE PICARD: Well, I think a couple of things. One is we're getting the message that not even Sweden following the Swedish model anymore, they're starting to crack. So I think that's important. And the other one that's important is that there's still a lot of debate around the world. I think it's maybe a little more polarised in Sweden, but that debate exists here. What should we do? How strict should we be? So I don't think in the end that different from the rest of the world, they have gotten a lot of attention. I wish we paid more attention to Finland and Norway, which are very, very successful. I think those would be better things to focus on.

RB: I want to get you to weigh in on a couple of things that have just happened this morning before we talk about Lockdown's. Pfizer has, of course, one of the producers of one of these seemingly successful vaccines, has asked for permission to do emergency use of the vaccine in the United States. What does that mean for us, given that we have purchased doses of Pfizer?

ANDRE PICARD: Well, it just means it's moving along at a record pace. So this vaccine is going to be approved almost certainly in record time. Doing the unthinkable that this has been done in months and vaccines often take years, sometimes decades. So it means it's coming. It's coming in the spring, probably in Canada, but we have to be cautious. I think this isn't a silver bullet. There's still a lot to learn. We don't know how well it's going to work, how many [unintelligible], and what people, etc. So we should be cautiously optimistic about this.

RB: I wanted to ask you, too, about the public health modelling. They say that if we continue the way we are, we'll be up to 20000 cases a day if we start to expand our social circle, 60000. The other thing that was that came out this week was that, Dr. Howard, news said, that the public health modelling didn't take into account Covid fatigue. Does that surprise you?

ANDRE PICARD: Well, I think, you know, the modelling, they have to try and get as many things in there as possible. I think it's hard to model the fatigue part because we don't know how people are going to react to these scary numbers, and they are really scary, I think that that's the warning here is, you know, Europe is seeing explosive growth. The U.S. is seeing explosive growth. We could see this very, very short order, you know, going from 5000 cases a day today to 60000 a day within six weeks. That's a possibility. It's not a fantasy.

RB: So then let's talk about some of the things that the provinces are doing to mitigate Quebec's announcement yesterday about schools and the Christmas season. The idea that you would be allowed to see your family for like I think it's a period of four days and you'd have a week, you know, before and after for quarantine. I have to admit, I was surprised by it. But then when you talk to people, they seem to say, well, people are going to get together for Christmas anyway. This is the premier trying to build some safety nets around that. What do you make of it?

ANDRE PICARD: Yes, I think that's exactly right. They're trying to find this balance. They know that you can tell people not to have Christmas, but they're going to have Christmas. So let's have a safest Christmas as possible. Sort of it's a harm reduction approach to this, which we've talked about a lot I thought was interesting about Quebec is the language. Talking about a moral contract. It's almost the least religious province being very religious about this is very fascinating sociologically. But I think, you know, they're saying like everyone else, we don't want, we know you can't tolerate a full lockdown. So we're going to give you a semi lockdown. You know, from December 17th to January 3rd, we're having a lockdown. And remember that it's been lockdown for more than two months already. So we're continuing that. But we're going to give you this little respite for Christmas. So enjoy, but don't go too nuts. Just try and have a little bit of enjoyment, but be cautious.

RB: And the school closure idea seems to have faded away. So Quebec is doing, you know, a little bit of an extension of Christmas holidays. Ontario has taken that off the table. Is that because school is not the place where we're seeing outbreaks and transmissions.

ANDRE PICARD: I think we've finally come to this realisation, something we've talked about for many, many months, that we have to check priorities and the priority has to be kids. And the way to keep kids healthy and safe and busy is to get them in school. So we have to make that the priority. So I think Quebec has done that. They've been clear all along about that and they're treating that. And I think Ontario has also backed off on closing schools, too, for that same reason. We have to do something with kids and the parents, ask any parent, if you say, you know, when we were talking last week about maybe will close schools for another week, I heard from tons of parenting or the last time they told us that they closed for five months. You know, I can't I can't stand the thought. So I think it's, again, this realisation that if we want some semblance of economy, we have to have kids in school and we have to keep them busy. It's not as if they'll be magically doing nothing and see if if they're not in school schools, probably the safest place for them to be.

RB: As cases go up, contact tracers are becoming overwhelmed. And we know that that tracing and testing is so key to getting this under control. Dr. Bonnie Henry, the public health officer in B.C., said that contact tracers, they're stretched thin. They're hiring hundreds more. What are the consequences if tracers, if we don't have enough or if they're not able to stay on top of things?

ANDRE PICARD: Well, I think, again, it's a simple maths problem, right? So we have about 5000 cases a day. Imagine each person has five contacts. That's 25000 people to contact. They each have five. That's 125,00. You see how quickly this just becomes impossible. So the whole system has broken down. So I think we have to do a couple of things as we have to. So like some countries maybe hire students, et cetera, to bring to really ramp this up. And the other thing is we have to do contact tracing differently. We have to focus, I think, more on clusters. We can't afford to try and track every contact of every person. You have to find those with a couple of infections and really focus on them. So it's a different sort of a cluster busting model as opposed to tracking down every single contact.

RB: Wouldn't the easiest thing, though, be to say to people, limit your contacts?

ANDRE PICARD: Well, of course, yes, that's the most reasonable one. But if you look at even the provincial rules, even if people follow them, they're saying limit your contacts to five to six to 10. There's all kinds of different rules. We all go grocery shopping, et cetera, et cetera. So we all have contacts. I think not many people are not leaving their home. So that that's the reality.

RB: Earlier this week, we talked on the show about Covid, Covid zero, the strategy being pushed by some doctors in this country to get Canada to zero cases, zero transmission. I've heard other doctors say it is not possible. What is your take on whether it is a goal and likely to happen?

ANDRE PICARD: I think there's no question on paper this is what we'd like to do. We'd like to suppress the virus rather than just mitigate. So the question becomes, is it politically palatable? And I think the message we're getting from all our political and public health. Leaders is no, we don't think the public will accept this, so, no, I think in practise, unfortunately not a good idea. In theory, yes, a good one. But, you know, at some point we I think what's good about this is it's forced us to think about what exactly are we trying to do? Are we trying to get rid of this? If we're mitigating, how much? So I think that the goal is a good one. Is it achievable? I don't know. I don't think we can do it at the point of spread that we have now. This is something we should have done in August. We would have done it. We would have gotten rid of the virus had we had caused zero in August.

RB: The number of provinces and regions that have put new measures in place this week or are going to today, it's pretty it's pretty astounding. Ontario's announcing some new restrictions today. Where do you think Canada is headed now, given the action that has been taken over the past, you know, five, seven days?

ANDRE PICARD: Well, I think, unfortunately, what we're going to see is sort of a comeback scenario, so Quebec has done what most provinces are now announcing. They've done it for two months and only done is managed to keep their numbers steady at about a thousand a day. They haven't gotten control the virus. It hasn't gotten out of control. But I think in Canada, we're sort of adopting half measures and we're getting half results. That's the reality. You know, there's lots of especially in Ontario, I see kind of lots of muscle flexing, but not much muscle in the policies. And unfortunately, I think that's a very Canadian thing. We're afraid to go to extremes and really crack down.

RB: And if we don't do that, we're in for some trouble, I guess.

ANDRE PICARD: Well, we're in for a long, horrible winter if cases, you know, if not explosive growth and just steady growth. And that's no better. I think it just leaves people in this frightened limbo.

RB: Andre Picard, always a pleasure to talk to you, even when the topic is depressing. I appreciate your time today, sir.

ANDRE PICARD: OK, thank you. I know it wasn't that pleasurable, but we try to be realistic.

RB: That's all we ask from you. Andre Picard is The Globe and Mail health columnist. Nice to speak with you again. And that is our programme for today. You can stay tuned to Radio One, of course, for Q Today, Canadian music icon. Man, he's got a lot of icons this week. This time it's Anne Murray. She's releasing her ultimate Christmas collection featuring her 22 favourite songs from six chart topping Christmas albums she's released since 1981. She will be on Tom Power Lights. We'll be listening to that, I'm sure. And of course, another reminder that you will not want to miss The Current on Monday. You never want to miss The Current, but particularly on Monday, Matt Galloway is sitting down for the only Canadian interview with former U.S. President Barack Obama to talk about his new book, Politics in the United States, things he wished he would have done better race relations and music because they both like music. I'm Rosemary Barton. I'm sitting in for Matt Galloway on this Friday, and I thank you for listening to The Current. Have a good weekend.

The Current Transcript for November 20, 2020

STORIES FROM THIS EPISODE

Prologue

National affairs panel on winter and rising COVID-19 cases in Canada

Chris Nikic smashes record — and stigma — as 1st person with Down syndrome to finish Ironman triathlon

The pros and cons of Sweden’s pandemic approach, André Picard on the possibility of school closures.

Friday November 20, 2020 Full Transcript

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