The Current

Election forecaster Allan Lichtman predicts Trump impeachment

Nobody saw the Donald Trump presidency coming — but Allan Lichtman did. And now the historian predicts Trump may well be impeached.
U.S. President Donald Trump could be the third president in U.S. history to be impeached, according to political forecaster Allan Lichtman who also projected accurately that Trump would win the 2016 election. (Carlos Barria/Reuters)

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There are many prisms through which to view these first 100 days in office for President Donald Trump.

Professor Allan Lichtman sees it all through an historical lens. He has correctly predicted a string of presidential election results since 1984.

In September 2016, Lichtman predicted Trump's win but he also forecast that the U.S. president would not serve out his full term and would likely be impeached.
 

In his book, The Case for Impeachment, he argues Trump has many of the flaws that have doomed past presidents such as Richard Nixon.

"Both men see themselves as beset by enemies, at war with the press because they want to be in total control of the narrative. They seem to have deep resentments of an establishment that somehow has rejected them," Lichtman tells The Current's Anna Maria Tremonti.

"Neither man is guided by strong core principles but tends to focus on themselves and both of them lack respect for the law, for American traditions and for basically telling the truth."

Donald Trump has no shame. As long as it's good for Trump, nothing else matters.- Allan Lichtman

Lichtman points out that Trump's lack of regard for truth — what he has referred to in his business career as "innocent exaggeration" — and the absence of core guiding principles is partly why he is susceptible to impeachment.

"Donald Trump has no shame. As long as it's good for Trump, nothing else matters."  
Historian Allan Lichtman sees many similarities between Nixon and Trump. (Paul J. Richards, AFP/Getty)

He argues that Trump halting progress in combating climate change is grounds for impeachment.  His undermining of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), issuing executive orders to roll back regulation, creating a budget to slash the budget for climate change are just a few examples how Trump has throttled back progress.

"The EPA has even removed the word science from its mission statement — it's just extraordinary," Lichtman tells Tremonti.

"This could be considered a crime against humanity. I know that sounds far out but just recently the International Criminal Court prioritized crimes against the environment. It's the most serious threat humanity faces." 

And of course he has a history of lying and a present proclivity to lie.- Allan Lichtman on Trump

Lichtman also suggests Trump's mistreatment of women could well lead to his impeachment. 

"Here's how: he could be caught in the Bill Clinton impeachment trap. One of his accusers, former Apprentice [TV show] contestant Summer Zervos is suing Donald Trump ... for defamation, claiming that her claims of sexual harassment were true and that by saying they were lies... he defamed her and subjected her to all kinds of problems."

Zervos lawyer, Gloria Allred, wants Trump under oath, Lichtman explains, so Republicans in Congress can hold Trump to the same standards that they held Bill Clinton, if he lies in court.

"And of course he has a history of lying and a present proclivity to lie."
U.S. President Bill Clinton was impeached on perjury and obstruction of justice in 1998 in a House vote, though he was able to stay in office because a Senate trial never convicted him. (Win McNamee/Associated Press)

Lichtman writes in his book, "a Russian sword of Damocles hangs over Trump's head and he is suspended by a slowly unraveling thread."

He explains to Tremonti that Trump faces an unprecedented situation with allegations of collusion with the Russians. And with investigations underway, if any evidence is disclosed that prove this to be true — and that Trump knew about it "that's misprision of treason — failure to report treasonous activities."

"If Trump himself, heaven forbid, was found to have colluded in any way with the Russians, he could be the first American president to be charged with treason," Lichtman declares.

"I'm not saying all of this is true but there sure is a lot of smoke."

He says the Trump administration's response to the Russian controversy has "all the hallmarks of a Nixon coverup — deny, conceal, delay, deceive."

"And then when you're caught claim, 'Oh, all of these contacts with the Russians were innocuous anyway' just like the Nixon team claimed that Watergate was just a third-rate burglary."

Listen to the full conversation at the top of this web post.

The Current's Washington special was produced by Howard Goldenthal, Willow Smith and Kathleen Goldhar.