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The Current Transcript for November 21, 2024

Host: Matt Galloway

Prologue

[Music: Theme]

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VOICE 1: Everyone who has gone surf watching on a big storm or, you know, seeing waves crashing into breakwaters or gotten seasick on a boat, you understand the power that's there.

MATT GALLOWAY: The ocean is alive with energy: Roiling waves, crashing surf. Now, scientists are trying to harness the power behind those waves and the impact could be staggering, providing electricity, experts believe, for up to a third of U.S. homes. Coming up, plugging in to that sea. Also this morning, the latest from the U.N. climate negotiations in Azerbaijan, where the news is much less optimistic. Plus...

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VOICE 2: I'm a union worker, too. I had a union job. I'm not against them, but it's a bad time of year to do this. That's all I'm saying.

MATT GALLOWAY: If, like this man, you're waiting for a driver's license or a passport to arrive in the mail, well you're out of luck, at least for the moment. The strike by Canada Post workers continues. In an hour, what that labour disruption means to small business owners at their busiest time of year and why observers say this is the moment that the mandate of Canada Post needs to change. But we begin with the rule of law, arrest warrants and the legal fight to get aid into Gaza. Good morning. I'm Matt Galloway, and this is The Current.

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Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

Guest: Raji Sourani

MG: This morning, the International Criminal Court issued warrants for the arrest of Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his former defence minister Yoav Gallant and Hamas official Mohammed Diab Ibrahim al-Masri, also known as Mohammed Deif, accusing them of war crimes and crimes against humanity. The court says these crimes alleged include murder, persecution and other inhumane acts. Israel is not a member of the ICC, but the court says that country's acceptance of the court's jurisdiction was not required. This comes as U.N. agencies and partners warn that famine is imminent in Gaza. Israel continues to block much of the aid from entering. While the aid that has made it in across the border is now being attacked and stolen by gangs. What food and other supplies there are in Gaza is now priced far above what people can afford. And while the U.N. Security Council says the humanitarian situation is worsening, there's growing concern that this conflict has also eroded trust in international organisations and international law. Raji Sourani is a Palestinian human rights lawyer and founder of the Palestinian Centre for Human Rights. We spoke with him earlier this morning just as those arrest warrants were being announced.

MG: In October, the Biden administration gave Israel 30 days to meet a minimum requirement of allowing something like 350 supply trucks to enter Gaza each day or risk having some U.S. military assistance cut off. Israel missed that deadline and has not met that requirement, but the United States has not cut off assistance. What does Israel's lack of action and what seems to some like not listening to Joe Biden? What does that tell you?

RAJI SOURANI: And that tells me that U.S. and Israel are partners. What's going on? The U.S. gives ultimatum for entering food. But it doesn't give ultimatum for stopping genocide. And they are using veto at the Security Council. That's nonsense. We are blown killed by American bombs. And U.S. doing and saying that for the last 13 months. And they can stop Israel from immediately, unconditionally. Because they are doing genocide. Part of the legal responsibility of international community, including U.S., to stop this genocide. And I think without a Biden administration or a Trump administration didn't act in the right legal way, right political way, right? A humane way. They are partner in the genocide, the crime, and they are just covering up legally, politically. And now, I mean, they are just talking about entering food, allowing food to come in. Nobody talking about 17,000 child killed and killed this morning, tens were killed. And they are not talking about 14,000 women. They are not talking about the 85 per cent of Gaza destruction or the displacement of 2 million people or the starvation which is going on for the last 13 months.

[cross-talk]

MG: Just help me understand the...

RAJI SOURANI: Big shame for U.S. and the international community.

MG: Help me understand this, because, I mean, the Israeli military has said that it doesn't restrict the entry of civilian supplies into Gaza. It requires these permits that it considers for items that that might be dual use. The stats that have come out from the Israeli military have said that supplies going in have actually gone down in the last couple of months. The U.S. ambassador to the United Nations said that without an immediate surge in humanitarian aid, many residents of Gaza, in her words, may not survive the winter. So given the words even from the U.S. ambassador to the U.N., how do you understand why it is that that aid isn't flowing in? Why isn't the United States following through with its threat that if the aid doesn't go in, it would reduce military aid?

RAJI SOURANI: I want to understand that. What's the problem of Gazans with the U.S.? What's the problem of 17,000 children was being killed with the U.S.? What's the problem with 14,000 women who has been killed with the U.S.? I don't know. I mean, why this is happening and I have no interpretation for that. There is. The crime of the crimes, genocide perpetrated by a criminal belligerent occupation. Who demonstrates that? And he says that. And he's not shameful of that, that the president of the state of Israel. Day one, he said there is not only [inaudible] civilians in Gaza, everybody complicit with Hamas, and we will target everybody. The Prime Minister said Gazans should leave Gaza out. Where to? Definitely not to Paradise. And the Minister of Defence, he said 'No water, no electricity, no food. No fuel.' And this is lasting and broadcasted live on air at the real time and the whole world see it. All international human rights organisations, including B'Tselem, Piketty think that. The most important court on air saying that, and they say 'There is plausible genocide and Israel should in city provide measures allowing humanitarian aid and food to come in.' And Israel is not doing that. They continue killing, destruction, starvation, abusing the entire community, and they are not caring for anybody. And they moved from Gaza to Lebanon even.

MG: The aid that is going in, it's not making it to the people who need it the most. There's gangs that are attacking aid trucks that have entered Gaza. These are Palestinian gangs that are denying their fellow Palestinians the food that they need. How do you, how do you reckon with that? How do you understand that?

RAJI SOURANI: The Israeli gangs and I'm referring to international human rights organisation reports and I'm referring to UN agencies. I'm telling you that these gangsters are part of this criminal occupation, instructed, guided, recruited and implementing that under the protection of the Israeli criminal occupation.

MG: Sorry, just to be clear, you, you think that the gangs that are attacking.

RAJI SOURANI: [cross-talk] Very little, they are allowing very, very little food, very little, which is not consist 5 to 10% of their needed food. And they are asking these gangs, I mean, to, to steal it.

[cross-talk continues]

MG: Just because, you, just to be clear. Just to be clear.

RAJI SOURANI: After a strong intervention by the international community, they bombed it. After it arrived, they bombed it. They are criminals. You are talking about genocide and now you are talking about Palestinian gangs stealing. I mean, this. They are so dirty. They are so bloody. They are immoral. This is the most immoral army ever passed. They are doing genocide, starvation, displacement, end of dear life, and the whole world seeing it and nobody intervening to put an end for this criminal education and the crime of the crime, the genocide against the Palestinians to be dead. Shame on them.

MG: Just to be clear, you believe that the Palestinian gangs that attacked, the gangs that attacked the aid trucks, we saw this over the weekend that they had, you believe that they were directed, or at the very least supported by the Israeli army.

RAJI SOURANI: Of course. That's not what I'm saying. That's what they want everybody involved in that, he knows about this. This is not I mean, something in secret and this is not the problem. I mean, nobody is talking about tens of people died this morning, including many, many of them children, most of them children. Who's talking about them? Cheap blood, cheap aid, cheap suffering? Now, the problem to discuss whether these gangs belong to occupation or doesn't belong to occupation. I mean, this is, I mean, the problem. The starvation of Gaza, 13 months, not allowing food to the people, destroying hospitals, stopping under what? And illegalising death, which is the most important body which distribute relief to people. Not important. The important thing is to discuss who is stealing this little food coming into Gaza. Is this the problem? The problem, not the end of the occupation, not the end of genocide, not the end of oppression, suppression. It criminality, I mean, by the occupation. It's only I mean, to discuss. I mean, to whom these gangs belongs. They are Palestinians. They should be subpoenaed. And we are the victims and the criminals at the same time. But by ourselves, Israel has nothing to do with that. This is a big shame, and this is distortion of facts. This is derailing that discussion. That is the criminal belligerent occupation should stop and should end. And the ICJ, International Court of Justice in July 19th said this is illegal occupation and there's genocide, which is going on for the last 9-13 months. Should have an end, and stop, stop and impose ceasefire immediately.

MG: What impact do you think, what impact do you think the ICJ ruling made? The ICJ ruled, as you've said, that, that Israel has to take all measures to prevent genocidal acts in Gaza and ordered Israel to ensure basic food supplies make it into the strip. What impact do you think that ruling has had?

RAJI SOURANI: When US and Israel is three [inaudible]. The most important court. Whether it's the ICC or the ICJ. And they say they are anti-Semite. They are implying the rule of jungle. We are not going to restrict it. We are going to hold accountable the prosecutors and the judges. Then you are in a real rule of jungle situation. So there is I mean, clear cut, simple legal decisions binding to everybody. Should Israel and U.S. do it? But they are, you know, the ones who are attacking the ICC and the ICJ. So, this is not going to be implemented, unfortunately. And what we are having, in simple words, rule of jungle. And if you compare that with Ukraine. How when, when Russia invaded and occupied Ukraine, Europe and U.S. said, 'Oh my God, I mean invasion, occupation? In the 21st century, how that can happen?' And they said Ukrainians do have the right to resist the Russian occupation by all ways and means, including armed struggle and they ask all the free people across Europe and U.S. to go and take the arm to resist the Russian expansion. And they resorted to ICC and in one year, they issued warrant against Putin and many other leaders and they resorted to the ICJ and accused Russia. I mean, there and the processes going on there and they imposed on Russia. Seven waves of unprecedented sanctions to stop its invasion and occupation of Ukraine. More than that, they promised to help and support Ukraine because it's occupied. With money. With arms. And providing it with legal and political cover. And for Palestinians, though we have owned that, and we have a prolonged, belligerent occupation. But it seems I mean, Europe and U.S. act with us as if we are the slaves of the old Rome. And old Rome, there was two classes, masters and slaves. For the masters, there was no and for the slaves there is no law.

MG: You said that this is the law of the jungle in some ways, that's playing out. And we mentioned the ICJ ruling. There's also the ICC ruling, the International Criminal Court, where the prosecutor applied for arrest warrants for three Hamas leaders, for the Israeli prime minister and for his then defence minister as well for war crimes. The Hamas leaders are now believed to be dead. Have a listen to the Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, in terms of how he responded to those warrants back in May.

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BENJAMIN NETANYAHU: It's trying to put us in the dock as we defend ourselves against genocidal terrorists and regimes. Iran, of course, that openly works to destroy the one and only Jewish state. Branding Israel's leaders and soldiers as war criminals will pour jet fuel on the fires of anti-Semitism, those fires that are already raging on the campuses of America and across capitals around the world. It will also be the first time that a democratic country fighting for its life, according to the rules of war, is itself accused of war crimes.

MG: He maintains, and Israel maintains, that it's defending itself, that the attacks come from Hezbollah, that Hamas continues to hold hostages. What do you say to that?

RAJI SOURANI: I want to ask any wise person on earth: Can occupation defend itself? I mean, this is a criminal, belligerent, prolonged occupation. The whole world knows that. Occupation, a crime of aggression. This is how it has been defined in the Rome Statute. This is what Russia said to Ukrainians: 'We are defending ourselves.'

MG: What do you think will happen when Donald Trump becomes the President in January? There are many people in Palestinian communities in the United States that voted for Donald Trump. They wanted to punish the Democrats. They felt that they perhaps would have a better shake under the Republicans. The Republicans will control essentially the entire U.S. government. Have a listen to what the Republican Senator, John Thune, who's soon going to be the leader of the Senate, had to say about those ICC warrants.

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JOHN THUNE: Now you have the International Criminal Court, or the ICC and its prosecutor, pursuing warrants against Israeli officials. That is outrageous and it is unlawful. The ICC rogue actions are a threat to our ally, Israel, and left unchecked, it could pose a threat to America in the future. So, to our allies in Israel and to the Jewish people around the world, my message to you is this: Reinforcements are on the way.

MG: What effect do you think Donald Trump and Republican leadership in the United States will have on the ICC case and, and on what you have been talking about, which is the international rule of law?

RAJI SOURANI: President Trump in 2017. He issued a presidential decree against the ICC prosecutor, judges and staff, and he said, 'If any will harm U.S. or Israel, we will act and react and we will deny them visas to the U.S. We will deny them entry, we'll freeze their assets. We will, we will confiscate their property and we will try them if they come to the U.S.' Now, this was in 2017. And this continue. I mean, till now, I think President Biden wasn't in any deference because he de facto and de jure, I mean supported Israel and protected Israel and we are today, are killed with American bombs. If Americans stop giving, I mean, Israel the arms, Israel will be not even to bomb us to kill us with the most high tech F-35 and tank missiles and artillery and the most high-tech guided missile GPU 34, 35, 36 and 38. Its policy will not change. It will continue the same. And maybe it's getting to be worse during Trump, as he agreed, I mean, at the time to annexe Jerusalem and annexe the Golan Heights of, of Syria by Israel. Maybe he will allow even this time, West Bank, I mean, to be part of Israel and have final say on that. Maybe he will pressure to implement what Netanyahu dreamed of sending 2.4 million people of Gaza. [cross-talk] Eager.

MG: We're, we're learning. We're learning right now that the ICC has issued arrest warrants for Benjamin Netanyahu, Yoav Gallant, his former defence minister, as well, that it believes there are reasonable grounds to believe that Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant committed war crimes.

RAJI SOURANI: I know they committed. It's on my skin. I saw it. I witnessed it. I documented it. And, and to have that, that's good. But that's not enough. I want to see justice. I want to see end for this genocide.

MG: Just finally, do you believe that institutions like the U.N., the ICC and the ICJ have, have the capacity to, to bring justice, I suppose, for both Palestinians and for the Israelis who are killed and captured by Hamas? That's the goal of these institutions. Do you believe in in those institutions to bring justice?

RAJI SOURANI: We have to believe in them. We have no other choice but to believe in them. This is the consensus of the international community. There is two states only who doesn't accept that, it's U.S. and Israel. And that's why we are having this human fight between two choices: Rule of law and rule of jungle. And I hope that these two warrants against Netanyahu and Gallant, it bring a new dawn not only for Palestinians, but for the world in respecting the rule of law and dignity of man.

MG: Raji Sourani, we will leave it there. I'm glad to talk to you. Thank you very much.

RAJI SOURANI: My pleasure.

MG: Raji Sourani is a lawyer and founder of the Palestinian Centre for Human Rights. He was in Cairo. We spoke earlier this morning. After the end of our conversation, we learned that the arrest warrants issued by the International Criminal Court also included one for Hamas official Mohammed Deif, who the Israeli military says was killed in July. Your CBC News with the latest on the story is coming up next. And then, [Music: Theme fading in] tapping into the energy of the ocean. How a testing facility in Oregon is harnessing the power of waves for electricity. It's a bit of good news in the climate change story. We'll bring it to you coming up in six minutes here on The Current. Stay with us.

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Clock ticking for COP climate deal

Guest: Susan Ormiston

MG: Hello, I'm Matt Galloway and you're listening to The Current.

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ANTONIO GUTERRES: The sound you hear is the ticking clock. We are in the final countdown to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C, and time is not on our side.

MG: Time is not on our side. Those are words from UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. Delegates at the climate negotiations COP 29 have been in Azerbaijan negotiating paths to finance years of climate pledges. Those negotiations are set to end tomorrow. Susan Ormiston is in Baku, Azerbaijan, covering the talks. She is the CBC's international climate correspondent. Susan, hello.

SUSAN ORMISTON: Hi, Matt.

MG: What did negotiators go into this summit hoping to resolve?

SUSAN ORMISTON: Money. This is called the finance COP. It's the mother of all climate issues, said one analyst to us this week. These are long overdue negotiations on a really thorny issue, and that is the debt owed to developing countries for the climate damages created by wealthier countries, those who have high emitting fossil fuel industries. It's often been said that damages from a heating climate do not respect any borders. And so, we have many poorer countries are suffering from an atmosphere they didn't create. So, the idea, Matt, is to redistribute monies from developed countries to more fragile economies to help them adapt to climate change and to help their industries, their economies move off away from fossil fuels. And that's how this started. But it is extremely difficult.

MG: What are you hearing from people who are in those developing nations at the sharp edge of climate change about what's at stake if some concrete agreements aren't reached by the time this thing wraps up?

SUSAN ORMISTON: Well, it's pretty tense this morning. I can tell you there was a draft agreement that came for discussion early this morning. People are pouring over it today, Thursday, and no one is happy with it. Not one country. We spoke to many people from developing countries who are frustrated with foot dragging for red lines. The Secretary-General whom you just heard said that it appears countries are still holding fast to the opinions and the positions they came here with two weeks ago. We've got less than a day left to reach an agreement, and the time is running short. And people are really frustrated. I mean, they're concerned that after years and years of this promise of redistributing wealth to developing countries, that this success here is not assured. And they don't know whether they'll go home with a package to look forward into the future about how to change up their economies and deal with their lives. So it's a very fraught situation here.

MG: Where specifically do people want the money to flow? I mean, what, what's the end goal if that money is promised? And actually, you know, the cheques are cut, where would they want that money to go?

SUSAN ORMISTON: They want it to go to programs. For example, I spoke to a woman from Kenya and she described the drought over the last 3 to 5 years, which has affected the Maasai communities in Kenya, where they've lost millions of livestock. And she described watching a cow died. She's a herder. She's lived through this, and she wants to help women in her community find other sources of income if they can't rely on their livestock. She says women bear the brunt of climate change because they draw water for one. And now they have to go much, much further to get water. It's not seasonal drought as we are accustomed to in Africa, she said. We've never seen anything like it. So, these are the types of things. The other things, Matt, are really transforming their economy and using different industries to get energy sources from other, other ways like solar or renewable energy. But these economies are fragile and they need help to do that. I think we, we have some comments from Edith Nasieka Santiyian and when she talked to me at the Africa Pavilion here at COP 29.

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EDITH NASIEKA SANTIYIAN: Climate change has a vast effect on our people. For example, in between the year 2020, 2023, we lost around 4.5 million livestock within the Maasai communities. There is in Narok and other counties and in Kenya. That is a source of livelihoods for the Maasai community. And so when these livestocks are actually gone, what happens then to community becomes so devastated.

MG: There are government actors that are there, but there's also the private sector. How does the private sector fit into all of this?

SUSAN ORMISTON: Well, we're talking about minimum hundreds of billions of dollars annually. It's a huge sum. The developing countries want over a trillion annually. So, the financial package, Matt, will be a combination of sources. One will be government funds. Our government, other governments will commit to pledge X billion dollars into this fund every year. Private investors are being asked to come in and invest in developing countries. But the people in those countries say, look, we are not the kind of countries that private investors can turn a profit in. They're worried that there's too much risk, so they don't want a lot of the money to be 'Well, we'll let private, private industry handle that.' They want firmer commitments. They want grants, not loans, which would add to their debts. So, these are some of the really difficult terms that are being negotiated right now in a soccer stadium in Baku. And frankly, no one is assured that this is going to all work this week.

MG: Is, are these negotiations as COP in the year 2024 still considered a legitimate place to address these big existential environmental concerns? This is being held in Azerbaijan. Nearly half of the GDP comes from oil and gas. Last year, it was in Dubai. And you will have climate activists who say 'This, this is theatrics. This is people getting together, making promises that they're perhaps not going to follow through on.' But also they're making those promises in places that have a vested stake in, in industries continuing, that people are looking to phase down or scale down. So, is COP still a legitimate place to, to deal with these issues?

SUSAN ORMISTON: Lots of responses to that. It's not just activists questioning the efficacy of COP. It's also former U.N. leaders and climate experts who wrote a letter two weeks ago saying COP is not the perfect place to do this anymore. That change comes too slowly. It's cumbersome, it's bureaucratic. There's language. But on the other side, from the developing countries, they're saying, look, when we come here, we have a voice at the table. We have to be listened to because this is a multilateral, as they call it, and many-country forum to come to a conclusion. They feel that this is the only place, really, where they have some leverage, some power that needs to be listened to. But I think there are real questions about where this is held, how big it needs to be. For example, there's concerns that this COP, Matt, the whole issue of transitioning away from fossil fuels, which was the headline last year in Dubai, that it's going to be muted, that there are actors, including Saudi Arabia and others, who are blocking a reiteration of that commitment to move away from fossil fuels, and they're getting some support from other countries. So, yes, it's problematic at the moment. It seems to be the only place, but I can see that there may be reforms coming soon in this process.

MG: I have to let you go, but if you go back to those people that we started with, the people who are, again, feeling and seeing the effects of climate change right now, how optimistic are they, those in those developing countries that these events that they're living through are enough to, to force the issue and to highlight the urgency of the finance strategy that's being discussed?

SUSAN ORMISTON: Well, I think that they're not optimistic right now, this afternoon, on Thursday. But I think overall, they feel that this has to happen here, that there's been too much work going into this. This is the time, momentum has power. If it fails, that also has power. And that's a very dark message coming out of this COP, if they can't come to a financial agreement. We spoke to a Kenyan, a veteran of 15 COPs, Mohamed Adow. And I think we have a little bit of what he said.

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MOHAMED ADOW: There hasn't been any signals that gives confidence to developing countries that they will get the support they require both to adapt to climate change and deal with some of the adverse impact of climate change that they can no longer be able to adapt to, but also contribute to the global effort to cut emissions. What developing countries are desperate for a clear signals that will be provided by the rich world that they will actually provide them the support they require. They've been negotiating this over the last two years and up till now, the rich world haven't come forth on the amount of time that they're willing to provide developing countries.

MG: The clock is ticking, as Antonio Guterres says. Susan, we will be watching as the negotiations come down to the finish line. Thank you very much.

SUSAN ORMISTON: You're so welcome.

MG: Susan Ormiston is the CBC's international climate correspondent. We reached her in Baku, Azerbaijan.

Harnessing the ocean’s waves

Guest: Burke Hales

MG: The mood at the U.N. conference may not be entirely optimistic, as you just heard, but around the world, there are projects springing up to tackle climate change head on. Imagine powering your home using the endless motion of the ocean. In Newport, Oregon, scientists are working on making that a reality. A $100 million project called PacWave is leading the charge in harnessing the power of the waves. Burke Hales is the Chief Scientist behind the project. He is in Corvallis, Oregon. Burke, Hello.

BURKE HALES: Good morning.

MG: I think anybody who spent any time in the ocean knows that you can feel the energy of a wave. How exactly do you turn those waves into electricity?

BURKE HALES: There's a really a wide diversity of devices. There are devices that, you know, move up and down at the surface with the waves and those induce, you know, through a, through a tether, they induce rotational motion that drives a generator. There are devices that allow waves to, to surge into the interior of the device, compressing air and running turbines on that compressed air. There are devices that have pendulums almost like an old grandfather clock. And as the waves rock the surface devices back and forth, the pendulum swings underneath. There are devices that wobble on the sea surface. And within those devices, they have asymmetric flywheel devices that as the device wobbles, they start to build a rotation. And you can capture energy from that. There are devices that oscillate pistons with the internal movement of the device and generate power from that. They're devices that have almost what I would call flappers, and the flappers move back and forth with the surface waves and then they drive piston pumps below to generate hydraulic power. There's this huge diversity. And the reason that there's this huge diversity is that we really haven't had the opportunity, as have, for example, the wind turbine industry, to figure out what the most optimal design is. And that largely is because of the bottleneck of full-scale testing.

MG: And that's what you're doing with this this testing project is to try to figure out what the best, the best form of that technology would be?

BURKE HALES: That's the idea, is that we provide the facility, the playing field for the developers who produce the devices to, to get real time testing and figure out how to optimise and then ultimately to figure out is there a single design that's best for all waves? Certain types of ways require a different device than others. That really is that's what, what the test facility is designed to support.

MG: How big of a setup would you need to generate... a reasonable, and reasonable is, you know, in the eye of the beholder, but a reasonable amount of energy from waves?

BURKE HALES: So there's a device that's called the Ocean Energy Buoy, and it's one of these devices that allows the waves to surge in and generate compressed air. It produces about a megawatt of electrical power, and it's quite large. The chamber through which the waves surge is, you know, the size of a, you know, a fairly large building. And so, so it's, you know, these can be very large devices. And in order to generate that kind of power and capture the types of ways that they want to, that often is required. There are other devices that work sort of more on the Swarm of Bees concept. So, many, many smaller devices connected together in an array. And so, we're talking about significant marine operational commitments to putting these devices out. You have to have the right kind of vessels. You have to have the right kind of anchoring systems. You have to have the right kind of materials. The ocean is a fairly hostile place. It's corrosive, it's highly energetic. The survivability is another key factor that these developers have to, have to account for.

MG: I was going to say, how do you make the technology such that it will survive in the ocean? The ocean is a wild, powerful place.

BURKE HALES: Yeah, it is. And that's, that's the question for the developers. And so, there are developers who adaptively move their devices. And so, we've had some, some really tremendously huge waves out on our coast right now. This bomb cyclone, atmospheric river system that's coming in and is generating hurricane-level winds, and waves that are 10 metres in amplitude, and many devices would prefer not to experience those conditions. And so, a number of the developers that are out there are actually building devices that will winch themselves down below the sea surface when they, when they detect tensions on their, on their mooring systems, they'll actually submerge and avoid the most destructive of the waves. But there, that's only one approach. And, but that's a, I would say that's an active and open area of research is how do you, how do you build in seaworthiness and survivability to these devices will also produce and power.

MG: What is the potential here? I had read and the statistic kind of leapt out just because of the scale of it, that there's enough energy in the waves that we might be able to get access to that could power, what? A third of all the homes in the United States?

BURKE HALES: Yeah, I think there are a number of estimates like that. The number that I've heard is 20 per cent of US domestic electricity demand, which might include industrial demand as well, and it's domestic. [MG: That's a lot.] It is a lot. But the important thing is that it's not all of it. Right? And so if you want to do renewable energy to power your economy or society, you have to have the diverse portfolio of renewable components. Wave is a complementary component to wind and solar, which are both higher yield but also much more erratic. And so, having this sort of steady, more persistent backbone of power supply from wave is complementary to these more volatile renewable sources.

MG: If this is successful and it gets scaled up, what sort of impact do you think it would have on the marine ecosystem?

BURKE HALES: Well, you know, we believe that, that the impacts of this particular facility are minimal. We believe the perimeters, perimeters agreed with us because they awarded us the license. But we're also required to carry out a substantial amount of ongoing monitoring to make sure that, that those predictions are held up. And so what do we worry about? Well, we worry about things like acoustic signals. And so these devices, you know, anything that goes in the ocean, you know, you throw a rock in the ocean and it makes an acoustic signal. These devices, you know, they're mechanical devices and they'll make sounds. Now, they don't have engines, right? They don't have propellers. So, we don't expect them to make sounds, particularly at the frequencies that might impact, you know, whale communication or navigation. But we're monitoring that all the time. And we've got requirements for, you know, exceedance of back, background thresholds that we have to address if we're, if they're detected, we worry about whether or not we, we damage the seafloor in areas where we place an anchor and we've got a benthic ecological monitoring component to our, to our work to make sure that we're accounting for that. We also know that whatever you put in the water, you know, whether it's a fishing lure or piling organisms in the, in the ocean interact with that. And so, you know, we, we know that certain fish types are attracted to the structure that gets put in areas that didn't otherwise have that. And so, you know, you might change the distribution of features that are, that are in the area of the, of the wave energy test site in comparison to what was there before. And I think, you know, if you think about the Gulf of Mexico, the, the oil rigs there have become these destinations for fishers because they're providing structure and substrate that the fish are attracted to. So, we're, we're also studying fish attraction. And so, these are, these are the kinds of things that are incorporated in our permitting, but also in our required monitoring.

MG: Folks up here, I think when they hear about this project, their mind might go to what people have been trying to do in the Bay of Fundy in terms of harnessing the extraordinarily powerful tides there and, and [BURKE HALES: Yeah] working on tidal energy. I mean, this is, these are, the long history of these large-scale projects, many of which have crashed on to the shore and not been successful. How is, how is this different than, than those projects?

BURKE HALES: I'm going to say it's different because, you know, fundamentally, capturing tidal energy is a different mechanical engineering approach. Right? So, tides are, produce currents and we know very well how to, how to harvest energy from linear movement, winds and currents that, you know, spin turbines or things that we understand fairly well. Whereas when we talk about waves, you know, we're talking about oscillatory motion, which is a completely different animal as far as how do we, how do we convert oscillatory motion into an electrical power-producing mechanism? And that's complicated. That's part of the reason why there's this diversity of approaches out there in the industry. The, you know, the question of whether or not the devices are seaworthy, that, that's critical. And I don't know that our environment is any, any more benign than the Bay of Fundy. We don't have the tidal current drivers out here in this sort of unrestricted open coastline. But we do have tremendously powerful storms. The storm that we're experiencing right now has generated some, you know, waves approaching 10 metres and some winds up in the 50-knot kind of range. And so survivability of devices, the seaworthiness of these devices is critically important. And how, how developers address that, how do they, how do they avoid the damaging conditions while being able to capture the energy from the favourable conditions? They're all part of the designs that the field developers are addressing.

MG: You've also had buy-in from the Biden administration, which announced in the fall, what? Up to $112.5 million going to the development of wave energy converters? This is the largest federal investment in marine energy ever. Do you worry that, that investment perhaps is in jeopardy because of a new administration whose motto is drill, baby, drill?

BURKE HALES: Well, you know, you talk about the ocean being a hostile environment. I'm going to try to avoid the, the dangers of this one. You know, we, we as a, an exploratory facility with funding that has been based on appropriations on each successive budget. We have always been very, very attuned to the federal support of this project. We've been through a Trump administration before. The Trump administration did not do anything that, that appeared to reduce the funding of, of marine hydrokinetic energy research and testing. You know, it may be different, but we, we think the Department of Energy is committed to building this diverse portfolio of renewables. And we think that, we think that the funding is likely to continue. We've got great delegation support here on the West Coast. And so we, you know, we're hopeful that, that things will continue. But it's also critically important that, you know, we've, we've largely finished the construction of this facility. And so, the investment that the Department of Energy has put into building this facility has been realised. We have, it's, it's done. We've constructed this sort of one-of-a-kind facility off the coast here. And now, we're talking about supporting folks actually using the facility afterwards. So, we're hopeful that support continues. We're hopeful that we show the success of the facility in furthering this energy development and that we begin attracting developers from, you know, private sector and even international areas. So, we're hopeful that just the value of the facility will sustain it.

MG: I'll let you go. But, I mean, when you think about the promise of this, if this works, what could it be? I mean, we live, you now have the U.N. Climate Conference and there's a lot of hand-wringing and hair pulling because it doesn't seem like the urgency of the moment is being met by those who are there trying to hammer out a deal. The attracting thing about this is that this is something that promises something, a measure of a solution in some ways to the crisis that we're facing. What do you think the promise here is?

BURKE HALES: Well, you know, I think it's challenging to, to sum that up succinctly because it not only is, is technical, you know, and which is my focus, but it's, you know, it's economical. It's, it's societal. You know, what we anticipate is that wave becomes a complementary part of the international renewable energy portfolio. And we anticipate that, you know, we're, we think we're about 20 years behind wind. And so we think, you know, maybe in a decade, we will see a device that has successfully tested that our facility actually go into commercial operation or municipal operation elsewhere. There are obviously places where, you know, wave energy is a better resource than others. And so, you know, we, we're, we're unlikely to see wave devices just ringing coastlines around the world because the resources and the onshore support infrastructure is determinant about whether or not a wave energy device can be feasible. But yeah, I believe that in the next decade or so, we'll start to see wave energy becoming, you know, megawatt scale contributions to local, local power grids.

MG: We'll be watching. This is really, really interesting and it's just nice to hear how it actually works. Again, for people who have been out cursing the waves because as you said, they've been seasick on a boat, this is, this is wave power for good. Burke, thank you very much for this.

BURKE HALES: Yeah, my pleasure. Thanks for a great opportunity.

MG: Burke Hales is the Chief Scientist at PacWave and a professor at Oregon State University. Well, coming up after your regional update.

SOUNDCLIP

VOICE: My community relies heavily on Canada Post. And as my business is growing and the busy season is coming, it really is becoming sort of a challenge, unexpected right before Black Friday sales.

MG: For people [Music: Theme fading in] living in rural and remote communities, the ongoing Canada Post strike is hitting hard. Coming up, how this disruption is affecting businesses, charities and people's lives and what's at stake for the Canadian economy, with both parties still far apart at the bargaining table? Is it time to rethink the place of Canada Post in this country? We will discuss that coming up in 90 seconds. I'm Matt Galloway, and this is The Current. Stay with us.

[Music: Theme]

And Canada Post strike hits small business

Guests: Megan Fahey, Vanmala Subramaniam, Ian Lee

MG: Hello again. I'm Matt Galloway, and you're listening to The Current. This is normally a very busy time of year for Michelle Knutilla's small business, selling crafts in Kelowna, British Columbia. But as the Canada Post strike continues, she's stressed.

SOUNDCLIP

MICHELLE KNUTILLA: Right now, I have things that are in limbo. They're in the Canada Post system, but they're not moving and we don't know when that's going to end. So, we don't know when we're going to get it. I just had things that were stuck up in the ocean because of the ports strike and now, it's in port and can't go anywhere from there, either.

MG: 55,000 Canada Post workers walked off the job last Friday. Among other things, they're asking for higher pay.

SOUNDCLIP

CANADA POST VOICE 1: This is a job. I'm out here making $21.80. And when you start talking about rent in Whitehorse, you know, I don't think we're asking for unreasonable cost of living increase.

CANADA POST VOICE 2: We've not keep it up. 2 per cent, 2 per cent, 2 per cent does not come up to 25 per cent.

CANADA POST VOICE 3: We are falling behind. There's a housing crisis, it affects us.

MG: Canada Post, on the other hand, says a new delivery model is necessary and that includes more affordable weekend delivery. Here is Canada Post spokesperson Jon Hamilton.

SOUNDCLIP

JON HAMILTON: We've lost $3 billion in the last five years. Mail volumes have declined by almost 70 per cent over the last 20 years. And we're losing the parcel business because we're not competitive. So, we've got to put forward a plan and a proposal that we can afford and will allow us to grow and then, invest more and more. But right now, we're not in that position.

MG: The federal government appointed a mediator on Monday. The two sides reportedly remain far apart. We'll get to the sticking points and what that could mean for the future of Canada Post in just a moment. But first, as you've heard, the longer the strike goes on, the harder the hit for many small business owners. Megan Fahey is the owner of Driven To Ink. It's a small greeting card business in Saint John's, Newfoundland. Megan, good morning.

MEGAN FAHEY: Good morning, Matt.

MG: You sell handcrafted greeting cards. How much of your business relies on shipping those cards out through Canada Post?

MEGAN FAHEY: For my online sales, I rely on Canada Post for all of my, all of my shipping needs. So right now, about 20% of my income is affected by the, by the strike.

MG: How stressed out are you?

MEGAN FAHEY: I'm pretty stressed about it, to be honest. I'm just trying to explore other avenues right now for making up that lost income.

MG: So, what happens? I mean, when you rely on for online orders, they all go through Canada Post. I mean, our orders coming in and they're just piling up and you can't get them out, at the door?

MEGAN FAHEY: That happened over the weekend. I had to shut down my store. I was quite busy over the weekend. I should have done it on Friday as soon as the strike was announced. But I had to shut down my Etsy store on Sunday evening and refund all the orders that had come in over the weekend because I just don't know when the strike is going to end. It's, it's too stressful to have those orders in limbo waiting to go out and not know when, when they can be given to the customer. People are waiting for them, and not just to give on Christmas Day. They're, they're wanting to ship them to somebody once they receive them as well.

MG: That's a big, deep breath that you took in when you're talking about sending all that money back.

MEGAN FAHEY: Yeah. It was a hard pill to swallow.

MG: We're in late November. It's the 21st of November. This is, I mean, you're getting close to Christmas. How much of your income, if you don't mind me asking, how much of your income comes from this time of the year?

MEGAN FAHEY: I was looking it up right before we joi--, right before we joined the call, and it's about 20 per cent of my income for the year [MG: And so] these last few weeks.

MG: Are there alternatives? You said you're trying to figure out what they might be. Are there alternatives to Canada Post?

MEGAN FAHEY: For me in Newfoundland, there really isn't anything. UPS, FedEx, etc., private couriers, they all cost an arm and a leg. And most of my orders are single greeting cards. They're small weight items. So, having a $20 order and then, adding $30 in shipping to it is not feasible for me or for the customer.

MG: Is that what it would be? Is that what it would be if [MEGAN FAHEY: For] you had to send [MEGAN FAHEY: Yeah] 1 or 2, a couple of greeting cards off the island to somebody else somewhere else in the country, and you had to do it through courier? That, that's what it would cost?

MEGAN FAHEY: Yes. Yeah, it's, it's quite costly. [MG: Wow.] And I send letter mail, so I do it the most affordable way possible, which is, you know, to the cost of a postage stamp most of the time. So, I know that some places in bigger cities have the option of sending things across the border through private couriers like chit chats, so they can send it over the border and then, ship out from there. So, some people can keep continue shipping to the U.S. and international just by sending it across the border, but for sending it within Canada, I'm not sure what, what they would be doing in that scenario.

MG: If the strike were to continue for an extended period of time, I mean, I said that there's a mediator, but apparently the two sides are pretty far apart right now. What do you thinking about? I mean, are there options that you're kind of running through?

MEGAN FAHEY: Well, I've had to pivot. I've reached out to some companies locally, stores who wanted to carry my cards and I didn't have the capacity to fulfil those orders. So I reached out to them. It's a little late in the season, so some of them are going to reach out in the new year and place orders, so hopefully, I'll make up that income eventually. I fully support the strike. I know that it was necessary. I, Canada Post had the opportunity to settle this prior to the strike. So, I empathise with the workers a lot. It, it's a tough spot for everyone to be in.

MG: How are you threading that needle you have? Because you empathise, as you said, with the workers, but [MEGAN FAHEY: Yeah] you're, you're also squeezed here, right? And you can't raise your prices more because everything is expensive. And people, as great as your cards are, they're not going to spend $30 to have something sent, because it's just too much. [MEGAN FAHEY: Absolutely. Yup.] So, how are you threading all of that?

MEGAN FAHEY: I'm relying on the local, the local customers to come out and support. And they've been, they've been doing it. I mean, during the pandemic, we saw a huge surge in sales online and locally. And right now, hopefully that'll, it'll be the same kind of thing people are going to. They know that we're feeling the crunch and they're going to come out to those local markets and see us or find us in the retailers.

MG: I hope it bounces back for you and that you do okay. This is, for small businesses across this country, this is the busiest time for many of them. And you're right in that mix. Megan, good luck and thanks for talking to us.

MEGAN FAHEY: Thank you so much for having me.

MG: Megan Fahey is the owner of Driven To Ink. It's a small greeting card business based in Saint John's, Newfoundland.

MG: Vanmala Subramaniam covers labour issues for The Globe and Mail. Good morning to you.

VANMALA SUBRAMANIAM: Good morning, Matt.

MG: I mean, we just, we just heard from a small business owner who, this is, this is prime time for her. What do you make of the decision to strike now during the holiday rush?

VANMALA SUBRAMANIAM: I mean, yeah, I listened to that conversation. That, that's tough. You know, she's in a, she's in a really difficult situation. But I will say that the two sides are pretty far apart from what I can tell. Even as of yesterday, still on a couple of issues and the decision to strike, I mean, this is almost an existential issue for both sides. For Canada Post, they have a business model that's simply not working right now. For the union, they're seeing Canada Post slowly sort of push towards more casual employment, more part-time employment. And, you know, the union's entire mandate is to protect jobs and to make sure that the jobs that are added have equal benefits, equal rights, as you know, jobs that have already been there for a while. So. I think both sides are very dug in on these issues. And it's a very tough situation because it's not just a regular business with, in a regular, in regular economic conditions. This is a business that is struggling. It's a crown corporation because of bigger macro changes and wants to push to have a different business model, but is unionised. So, you're going to get a very tough set of negotiations and it was bound to happen.

MG: Let's talk a little bit about, about what's at stake here. As you mentioned, Canada Post is in a really tough financial spots, losing something like $750 million last year. The losses increase every year since 2018. [VANMALA SUBRAMANIAM: Yeah.] What is the new model that it is proposing?

VANMALA SUBRAMANIAM: Yeah. So, let me just kind of break that down for your, for your listeners a little bit. So, the one thing to understand is that Canada Post wants to move into the parcel delivery business in a very, in, in a way that they can be competitive. Letter mail has dwindled. People don't send letters anymore, that we understand. But what happened in the pandemic is that they were making headway in market share, in parcel delivery. But there was a rise of all these new delivery couriers, third party delivery couriers that used very cheap labour and cut into Canada Post business. So, just a stat that's interesting is, you know, in between 2020 and say 2023, the parcel delivery market share eroded by more than half in this country from 62 per cent to 29 per cent. So, they're saying in order for us to compete, we need to also have lower labour costs. And in order to do that, we need to have what they're proposing part-time flex employees, which means that these are part time employees who are permanent with Canada Post, but kind of work around the clock on weekends on demand, similar to how third-party deliver couriers operate, and this idea of weekend part-time flex, part-time flex. And these are two new employee classifications that Canada Post has proposed. This is the crux of the issue. This is what the union is really unhappy about because they want to preserve more full-time jobs and they want to preserve more importantly, benefits. A defined benefit pension for any employee of Canada Post.

MG: Does Canada Post really think it can compete with those third party delivery services? In many cities, you will see, and it's not just that Amazon branded vans that are driving around, dropping off people's packages, but personal cars, private cars stuffed to the gills with packages because somebody has taken on a bit of gig work to, to deliver those packages. Does Canada Post think that it can actually compete with the...?

VANMALA SUBRAMANIAM: That's a really good question, Matt, because I, you know, I combed through the year 2023 and 2022 annual reports and yes, they do believe they can compete. And their argument is that they were competing before the pandemic and the pandemic was what kind of ruined them in a way because of the rise of these third-party delivery couriers. But the reality of the situation is their market share is already been eaten into. And what the union is proposing, which really hasn't been talked about a lot, is for Canada Post to completely innovate its business, to not just focus on parcel delivery, to do things like postal banking. This is something where you provide basic banking services, especially in rural and northern communities, for people who are unable to get easy access to a bank or who don't bank online. And, you know, in countries like Japan, in Switzerland, in parts of Singapore, they do, postal banking is a thing. It is and a concept that can be introduced to sort of negate the, if the dwindling letter mail problem that postal services face.

MG: What does this say, do you think, about the future of work and labour disputes in the public sector in particular? We live now in this 24/7, seven-day-a-week, kind of order anything and it'll be delivered in a couple of days sort of society right now. When that, and the pandemic supercharged that in many ways. When that exists, what does this say about the future of work, do you think?

VANMALA SUBRAMANIAM: Yeah. I mean, you know, the model of labour is of, of work and labour is really changing. And you can see that with gig workers, right? So, they're effectively independent contractors like people who work for these third-party delivery couriers or even Uber drivers and things like that.

MG: And that's what the unions said. [VANMALA SUBRAMANIAM: And...] They don't want the gigification of the post office.

VANMALA SUBRAMANIAM: Exactly. Exactly. They don't want that. But the fact of the matter is that's happening because that labour regulations, employment codes across the country cannot keep up with how quickly these tech companies have moved in to change the nature of work. And that's what the union is seeing happening at Canada Post, and is trying to protect against. But it also means...

[cross-talk]

MG: But we as consume--, we as consumers have a role to play in that too, right?

VANMALA SUBRAMANIAM: Yeah, we do. We do, because we're getting really used to same day delivery and we want things instantly, and we're doing things from our phones. So, that's why I use the word existential, because for both sides, it's really sort of a, they get dug in because there aren't any easy solutions to this.

MG: We know that. I mean, whether it's small businesses are being hit, we know that people are waiting for passports and driver's licenses as well. If this continues, should people, you say that there's two sides as of yesterday are still pretty far apart. Should they make alternate plans for, for example, sending. People do still send Christmas cards. I'd like to get them in the mail. I'd like to send them in the mail. Should people make alternate plans for those kind of things?

VANMALA SUBRAMANIAM: Well, I personally would. So, I think what Canada Post has said is that the only mail that they will deliver is socio economic checks, which means your cheques for Old Age Security, Canada Pension Plan, childcare benefits, cheques, everything else will not go. And given how, you know, I'm not saying. I can't predict when the strike will end. [MG: Yeah.] But I can see that this round of bargaining, the issues are not just as simple as wages and reaching a middle ground on wages. They're just bigger, broader issues that sort of affect the entirety of the workforce of Canada Post. So, you know, frankly, I would look for alternatives in delivering my mail.

MG: Can I ask you a really important question, which is for kids who are writing Letter to Santa that will be delivered, you put it in the post box and it goes to the North Pole and Santa gets that letter. What happens, is Canada is going to deliver those letters, which, which, what, what should happen there?

VANMALA SUBRAMANIAM: They haven't said that they will. That might change the, as we get closer to the Christmas season. But as of now, they are only delivering what the pension cheques and you know, Old Age Security, and what they call socioeconomic cheques. So, I'm not, I'm not sure if Santa letters are going to actually get delivered this time around.

MG: Vanmala, thank you very much for this.

VANMALA SUBRAMANIAM: Thank you, Matt.

MG: Vanmala Subramaniam covers the future of work and labour issues for The Globe and Mail. Ian Lee is an associate professor in the Sprott School of Business at Carleton University. He studies Canada Post. Ian, good morning to you.

IAN LEE: Good morning.

MG: Matt. I said the statistic earlier. Canada Post losing $750 million last year. The losses have increased every year since 2018. Why is Canada Post seeing declining revenue as you understand it?

IAN LEE: The core problem, and I documented this in my MLI study in 2015, 'Is the Cheque Still in the Mail?' I documented it. I brought it right up to date in my most recent study, Canada Post is at the Tipping Point. And I do want to point something out because I get emails all the time telling me it's my opinion. Every statistic and trend and graph in my reports are sourced exclusively from the audited annual reports of Canada Post tabled in the Parliament of Canada. All the data comes from there. To your question, letter mail is collapsing. It is the core product of the post office for 250 years since the British set up the Canadian Post Office as a subset of the Royal Mail in 1761. And this letter mail, which has a profit margin of 50%, according to the Deloitte study done in 2016 for the blue-ribbon panel, is, is falling like a stone 70%, and I'm sorry if John, I sound like John Hamilton. But I do want to make a point because people are saying you're the spokesperson for Canada Post. I don't consult the Canada Post. I do not talk to them. And in fact, they are using the lines from my report that I've been stating for 10 years. Letter mail's collapsing. It is not coming back. Canadians do not write letters any more. And...

MG: How important is, how important is parcel delivery to Canada Post in 2020 for them?

IAN LEE: Well, that's the only thing that's going to save them. And as your, as The Globe and Mail Future of Work reporter did note correctly, the Canada Post is not competitive in parcels. That's the only thing that's going to save them. They should have pivoted 10 years ago, but they didn't. And they squandered 10 years of opportunity. Let me put some numbers on the table so people understand why they're not competitive in parcels and why they have such an existential crisis. Yes, because there's only two things: Letter mail, which is collapsing, and parcels. In the, it is correct that this trend occurred in the pandemic, but I really don't blame it on the pandemic. It was a shift in the market. The gigs came along. Up until then, Canada Post had was doing fairly well in parcels and market share, a little over 50% of the market in market, in the share of parcel post. But what happened is the gigs came in, and radically undercut them. Today, the average cost per truck, those postal trucks you see flying, driving around Canada, the average cost for the truck and the driver and the fuel is about $60 to $65 an hour. The private for-profit courier companies are around $45 an hour for the truck and the driver and the fuel. The gigs are about $25 an hour. They own their own car. They're like Uber drivers and they are radically undercutting both Canada Post and the private for-profit couriers. And as a consequence, the e-commerce companies are shifting en masse from Canada Post and abandoning Canada Post to go to the gig drivers for the delivery of e-commerce parcel post.

MG: So facing, facing an existential crisis, what do you see as the role of Canada Post in 2024?

IAN LEE: It's on the tipping point. I believe after the next election, it's not going to be handled by, this is a lame duck parliament. We all know that. But after the next election, no matter who is elected. My joke is, even if we elected Karl Marx, we will be facing massive downsizing in the post office after the next election. The CEO and the CFO this past summer on the record at the Annual General Meeting stated, they said many things, but there are two things that are really important. "Canada Post is going to run out of money in early 2025, which will necessitate a bailout from the Government of Canada." The second really important point was the CEO said, and he's correct. I mean, the numbers are self-evident. He said "The post office has been structured to deliver 5.5 billion pieces of letters a year, and we're only delivering 2 billion," he said. And this is unsustainable. [MG: You've said...] There will be downsizing.

MG: Well, you've, you've said that Canada Post should end door-to-door delivery. Why should, why should it stop delivering mail to my front door?

IAN LEE: Well, first off, only 25% of Canadians do receive door-to-door delivery. 75% do not. The second. And by the way, full disclosure, I live in one of those neighbourhoods in Ottawa and, and I received door-to-door delivery, albeit, you know, I only get mail once every 2 or 3 weeks. But the more important reason is that the Deloitte, in the study for the blue-ribbon panel, found that the cost just of the 25% the privilege, these are the most privileged neighbourhoods in Canada, the Glebe in Ottawa, Rockcliffe, Rosedale in Toronto, Outremont, Point Grey, the most privileged and wealthy neighbourhoods in Canada. This, this service is costing fi--, was costing $500 million a year in 2015, I estimate because of inflation, it's now about $800 million. Canada Post is haemorrhaging cash and they have to do radical surgery to buy them time to pivot and completely restructure as a parcel post company.

MG: Is there an argument to be made that this, that this Crown Corporation doesn't need to be profitable, that it needs to provide a service to parts of this country that would otherwise be without delivery?

IAN LEE: Well, that's essentially what I've argued. I've argued in this report. I've said that in the urban cities where 80% of us live, according to Stats Canada, most people don't use the post office. There's all kinds of alternatives. There's small, regional courier companies, national courier companies, there's shopping malls, don't have to do e-commerce, etc. And so, what I argued was the old delivery model of going to 17 million addresses five days a week, 52 weeks a year is massively expensive, will become more expensive as the volumes continue to decline. And so, there's no need for that. That's why I recommended ending that, as well as franchising all the post offices and ending home delivery to the 25 per cent. Then, you create a, a new or a parcel, Canada Post parcel post company, if you will, that will service small business that absolutely is dependent on the post office and the rural remote communities across Canada, such as the villages and hamlets of rural eastern Ontario, where I grew up as a boy, 50 odd years ago. Those places will not get private for-profit couriers coming in because the densities are too small. So, there's a role for Canada Post, it is not the role that we envisage of a 65,000 employee organisation marching down the streets of Canada to every last address in the country with no mail because Canadians are no longer writing, sending mail. I call that a Potemkin post office, and it's unsustainable. And I think we have to completely and radically re-engineer the post office to be a much, much smaller post office servicing small business and rural and remote communities in Canada.

MG: Got to let you go. But when you do that radical surgery, a lot of people will lose their jobs. These are good-paying jobs. [IAN LEE: I will...] They come with benefits. The people who are in them are now out on the streets, fighting for the preservation of those jobs. What would you say to those people who would lose their jobs if that surgery that you're calling for takes place?

IAN LEE: Matt, you're absolutely right. I didn't sugarcoat it in the report. I, we have 65,000 people in the post office. I, this, the model I'm proposing will probably need about 10,000 people. So, we're looking at a 50,000-55,000 downsizing that will rival the downsizing of the of the Chrétien government in 1995, albeit that was in the public service. There's two specific answers. In the annual report, it states that 25 per cent of the workers will be going into retirement over the next 10 years so they can, using compensation packages, bridge those people into retirement. That will still leave an awful lot of people and they will receive, as any company does, that downsizes or goes out of business, for that matter, they'll receive compensation packages. And because we have massive labour shortages in this country, with the boomers exiting the workforce and the decline in fertility, which we all know about, and the cutbacks in immigration, we are already facing job shortages across the country, and those people will be reabsorbed by the labour markets across Canada. But I know that people find this very harsh. The reality is I don't believe that any government, no matter what government is elected, is going to say, 'Look, we're going to continue paying. Those deficits are going to become larger and larger, Matt.' They're not going to be a half a billion. In, in two years, they'll be $2 billion. Then, they'll go to $3 billion, $4 billion, $5 billion. As the volumes continue to decline in both letters and parcel post because they're not competitive. And then, we'll end up with a Potemkin post office in.

MG: Ian, we'll leave it there. Thank you very much.

IAN LEE: Thank you.

MG: Ian Lee is an associate professor in the Sprott School of Business at Carleton University. Your thoughts? How do you use Canada Post? What would the end of mail delivery mean to you if you get it now? And what does the strike mean to you in your community? Email us thecurrent@cbc.ca. That is The Current for this Thursday. Q's up next on CBC Radio One. We were talking earlier about this seductive idea, harnessing the power of the waves to help power the energy grid. We're going to leave you with a bit of music from Modest Mouse. This is Ocean Breathes Salty. I'm Matt Galloway. Thanks for listening to The Current, I'll see you tomorrow.

[Music: Ocean Breathes Salty by Modest Mouse]

Thursday, November 21, 2024 Full Transcript

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