How the chaos in Donald Trump's Washington might affect Canada

Canada is open to planning more rounds of NAFTA talks if that's what it takes to strike a deal.

Marc Garneau, the chair of the Canada-U.S. relations cabinet committee, said Canadian negotiators are putting emphasis on finding an agreement that works for all three countries.

But if that takes longer than what was originally planned for, Canada is open to extending talks, he told The House.

"We just need to keep our eye on the ball," he said.

• Canada again points to U.S. numbers after Trump admits he concocted trade deficit claim

"All the essential ingredients are there for us to move towards a better agreement on NAFTA."

But events south of the border threaten a speedy conclusion to the trade negotiations.

U.S. President Donald Trump boasted in a fundraising speech in Missouri on Wednesday that he made up facts about trade in a meeting with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

• Trump says he made up facts about trade deficit in meeting with Trudeau

Trump also fired his secretary of state, Rex Tillerson - someone who Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland had developed a close relationship with.

On top of everything else, Mexico's Minister of Economy Ildefonso Guajardo said that because of the timing of that country's election, if there is no deal on NAFTA by April, discussions could last until the end of the year.

When asked about the potential April deadline, Garneau said it's "not a good thing to speculate about an end date."

By approaching negotiations preoccupied with an end data, you put constraints on yourself that affect the way you negotiate, he said, putting you at a disadvantage.

"We are ready to work with more meetings and more rounds and work as quickly as we can, but we do not want to in any way compromise on the positions Canada is taking."

Response to Russian interference could prove difficult for Canadian officials

Russia's espionage tactics are making it difficult for Canada to coordinate an effective response, according to the former head of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service.

"The challenge with Russia is that Russia is pushing," Ward Elcock told The House.

"We tend to be more black and white, they're exposing the grey areas on us."

Instead of direct attacks, Elcock explained it's more common to see more subtle pushes. But the use of a nerve agent against former spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia in the U.K. — which has been attributed to Russia — seemed to break that pattern.

• U.S., U.K., France and Germany issue statement blaming Russia for poisoning of ex-spy

"It's a fairly significant violation of the norms," Elcock said.

"In the circumstances, it's pretty hard to believe anybody would be responsible but the Russians."

British officials reacted quickly, vowing to expel 23 Russian diplomats from the country.

Prime Minister Theresa May said they would develop "new legislative powers to harden our defences."

Justin Trudeau and Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland also weighed in on the attack, condemning the use of the chemical agent.  

When asked if Canada should consider imposing new sanctions on Russia or implementing new legislation in response to the attack in the U.K., Elcock said he didn't think that would necessarily be effective.

"I think that merits a pushback, but what level of pushback is required is another question."

He explained that Canada is aware Russia is a threat, but because they haven't carried out an overt attack on Canadian soil, it leaves questions as to how to respond.

The best protection going forward is identifying and fixing gaps and weak points in security protocols, he added. That's the only way to be proactive in the face of a threat.

"[Vladmir Putin] is exploiting the gaps in the systems, he's not coming at us head on."

Saskatchewan would support Alberta's decision to turn off oil taps

Saskatchewan's premier says he'd stand by Alberta if they decided to turn off the oil taps because of the ongoing pipeline dispute with British Columbia.

Scott Moe said he would "absolutely" encourage Rachel Notley, his Alberta counterpart, to cut Canada off from their oil supply.

"If the fuel tanks start to run dry because Premier Notley has turned the tap off, it won't be Saskatchewan filling them up," Scott Moe told The House.  

• Rachel Notley doubles down on threat to cut B.C. oil shipments

Though his province isn't connected to Kinder Morgan's Trans Mountain pipeline, the delays are affecting rail shipments of grain and other products in and out of the province as more oil moves by train, he said.

In early February, B.C. Premier John Horgan proposed restrictions to bitumen shipments that would flow through the pipeline from Alberta to the West Coast. In response, Rachel Notley pulled Alberta back from purchasing hydro power and wine from their western neighbour.

The war escalated a few weeks later when Notley floated the idea of cutting oil shipments from Alberta entirely.

Though the issue revolves around the two westernmost provinces, Moe said he'd back Notley if she decided to cut the oil supply — no matter the intended destination.

"I think she can turn them off to wherever she has access to until we ensure that this pipeline that has been approved by our federal government is starting construction."

Doug Ford's provincial campaign to build off leadership race tactics

Doug Ford's strategy going into the provincial campaign is expected to build off his leadership tactics, according to the man who just ran his successful campaign to lead the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party.

Keeping things simple and focusing on grassroots voters were major building blocks of his approach, and those steps will likely be included moving forward from the PC leadership convention into the election, Michael Diamond told The House.

"You can't lose touch with your grassroots," he said.

The six-week race was chaotic and fast-paced, something Diamond said presented huge logistical problems. The provincial election affords almost double the time to plan and campaign.

Though the campaign has yet to really begin, the polls favour the PCs to sweep the legislature.

A recent analysis showed the Liberals would secure three to 25 seats, while Ford's party could win between 78 and 98.

But there's at least one big challenge standing between Ford and the top job at Queen's Park: Kathleen Wynne, the current premier.

"She beat the odds," Diamond said, speaking about the last provincial election.  

"You never want to count someone who's a fierce competitor out."

Focusing on smaller, more isolated ridings while on his leadership tour gave Ford an edge, Diamond said.

Getting him to the people who were on the fence or opposed to his leadership allowed them to form fresh opinions of him, he added.

"When people saw him in action, the fears they might have had about him went away."

Combating pre-existing perceptions of the Ford family will continue to be a challenge in the provincial election.

Looking ahead, Diamond said it will interesting to see the dynamics play out in ridings outside of the traditional focus — places that aren't Toronto.

As for Ford's platform, there are still few details.

All Diamond said was that more will be revealed as the election draws closer. However, Ford has expressed that the People's Guarantee, the existing PC platform, is too long.

"You need to talk about issues that people are worried about, not issues that the political elites are concerned about," Diamond explained.   

No matter Ford's approach to policy, the PCs will enter the election campaign with a large buffer in the polls.

While Diamond was reluctant to predict how many seats the PCs would take, he did say Ford will likely shake up the race.

"His leadership might actually change the map a bit."