Midweek podcast: Majorities and momentum in the final days

While the Conservatives and the NDP play defence for seats in Ontario and Quebec, Liberal leader Justin Trudeau is asking not only for votes, but for Canadians to give him a majority.

That's not the only "M" word heard on the campaign trails in these final days — Tom Mulcair is now promising to decriminalize marijuana immediately if elected. 

Then there's the media — in particular, a new rash of Conservative attack ads against Trudeau, aimed at ethnic voters.

But these two strategies are both in response to the most important "M" word of all:

Momentum.

Do the Liberals have it? Can they hold it? And what last-minute moves might we be seeing from the other two parties in the dwindling days of the campaign?

Mark Kennedy, parliamentary bureau chief for the Ottawa Citizen, and Tasha Kheiriddin, columnist for iPolitics and the National Post, join host Chris Hall to discuss in the latest episode of our special midweek election podcast.

1) What does Justin Trudeau's majority talk tell us about how the Liberals are seeing the race in these last few days?

Tasha Kheiriddin: He knows he has momentum and he's trying to capitalize on it. I think he doesn't want to have to cooperate with the NDP. He wants to go it alone, so why not make that pitch? Obviously the polls are in his favour, and he knows it.

Mark Kennedy: He has to be careful about how he does it, but it's standard procedure to go out there and say 'you'll be better off it you give us a majority.' If there's a trend going in the Liberals' favour, and if there are Red Tories, Progressive Conservatives — call them what you want — who are turning away from the Tories and want stability, what's best for them? A Liberal majority. 

2) Is Trudeau the only leader playing offence at this stage in the campaign?

TK: Yes, and that says a lot about their campaign and where the other campaigns are at. For Mr. Trudeau, it's a question of gain. He has to go up if he's going to form any kind of government at all. Everyone underestimated Mr. Trudeau to begin with, so what does he have to lose? I don't think it would turn off people who are looking for the anti-Harper if he [does play offence]. Those are his key voters that he needs.

MK: The Conservative strategy in terms of drawing voters to the ballot box is to tell them what they should be voting against, that the last thing they need is a Liberal government. So on the Liberal side, it's much more motivational and inspirational.

3) What's the ballot box question for the Liberals?

MK: I don't think it's changed from the start. From the Liberal side, it's always been about change, and what change is best for the middle class.

TK: I agree 100 per cent. It's the change vote. They're tried to position themselves as the best party to carry forward that change. It looked like the NDP for the first cycle of this election, and now it's looking like the Liberals.

4) What do you make of the strategy behind the Ford brothers' involvement in the Conservative campaign?

TK: This is a sign to me that it's an attempt to reach certain groups, and particularly ethnic minorities who were supportive of Rob Ford in his mayoral elections too. I think the Conservatives are looking to target very specific voter bases.

5) If the Liberals are hoping for a majority, where do those votes need to come from?

TK: From Atlantic Canada, obviously. They need to get Quebec, they need to try and break through some of the suburbs in Montreal. They also need the ridings in the GTA and in Toronto that they lost in the last election, and they need to do well in B.C. and maybe pick up a few ridings in the prairies as well, around Calgary.

6) What's your prediction for Election Day?

TK: My prediction is probably a Conservative or Liberal minority. I think it's still too close to call. And I think the Tories also have that ballot box bounce of traditionally a couple percentage points, of people who just don't say they're voting Conservative until they actually get there.

MK: Tasha's right. The Conservative vote is a committed vote, but let's not forget this: the Liberal 'get out the vote' machine is going to be much better than it has in past campaigns, and we better be ready for that. As much as polls have been fiendish because there have been so many in this campaign, at this stage in the game this is really where we want to keep our eyes. If most Canadians haven't already made up their minds, they'll probably have done so by Saturday, so let's see what the numbers are by the end of the week.