The aftermath of America's choice: what Donald Trump means for Canada
David Dodge, the former governor of the Bank of Canada, says Donald Trump's presidency could mean big trouble for Canada's automotive industry.
Part of Trump's win has been credited to voters in the rust belt - Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania-- where his anti-trade and protectionist promises struck a nerve.
And he'll be beholden to those voters if he wants to remain in power, says Dodge.
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"We're going to have more of our classic border skirmishes with the Americans. The Canada-U.S. border will get thicker. I worry more about a lot of the bits and pieces that make trade difficult as opposed to a wholesale slaughter," he told the CBC's Chris Hall in an interview for The House.
While Dodge doesn't believe Trump will follow through with his plan to rip up NAFTA completely, a more protectionist White House could change the way businesses map out their futures.
Dodge said drastic decisions won't be made quickly, but overtime he believes plants will set up across the St. Clair River and in other parts of the U.S.
"This is bad news for the auto industry in Ontario... The only thing I can hope is the North American auto industry is so integrated across these borders and stuff flies back and forth so much that you can't keep American factories operating without that flow taking place in the short run."
That's not the only area where Dodge anticipates the Trump agenda might hurt Canada's economy.
"The tax side in particular poses a real problem for the government of Canada. We have just raised our top rates on the personal side at the federal level. We've raised the corporate rate at the provincial level and I think both of those increases will make Canada a decidedly unattractive place for these innovative industries that the government of Canada is counting on," he said.
How will Donald Trump approach Canadian files?
Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne says she believes renegotiating NAFTA might be a good thing, as long as the provinces are part of the discussions.
"I'm not going to pretend [David Dodge's] concerns aren't real. They are very real concerns but I think we also have to remember that we are competing with the United States, but we're competing with the world," she told The House.
"When I meet with the governor of Michigan we both agree that in order to be competitive we need to innovate we have to be the best at what we do to compete for the world."
Former ambassador David Wilkins told The House that despite the "protectionist wave" igniting in the United States, he doesn't think NAFTA is not on the verge of being thrown in the waste basket.
"I believe NAFTA will be around for a long time to come," he said.
Wilkins, who served as the United State's link to Canada under George W. Bush, argued Canada could benefit from a pro-business leader in the White House.
"The other thing that's important is you've got a new president now that will respect the United States's natural resources and Canada's natural resources. You won't have someone in the White House disparaging the oil sands," he said.
While the media has been quick to point out the differences between Trump and Trudeau, Gordon Giffin, U.S. ambassador under president Bill Clinton, said the relationship between the two countries is greater than whoever holds the keys.
"The so-called tone at the top really guides the dynamic whether it's a healthy exchange or whether it's more transactional and business like. You can have a good chemistry without agreeing on everything," he said, pointing out Canada and the U.S. often work together on a global scale.
Giffin is now a partner at Dentons' U.S. Public Policy and Regulation practice alongside former Republican house speaker and 2012 presidential hopeful New Gingrich.
After serving as an advisor to Trump there's been speculation Gingrich could be awarded a cabinet position.
"I expect Newt will want to preserve his freedom and independence and not take a job in the government. But that said I think he wants to continue to have a role advising the new president on how to structure government, how to run government," he said.
U.S. election and Brexit: the rise of protectionism
Donald Trump's campaign included promises to deport illegal immigrants, extreme "vetting" of Muslims from entering the country and opposing trade deals and globalization that he argues undermines America's greatness — similar themes that emerged when Britain voted to separate from the European Union.
Those concerns also played out as Canada and the European Union finalized the major trade deal known as CETA.
Marie-Anne Coninsx, the European Union's ambassador to Canada, believes governments need to listen to the discord in their countries, not run away from it.
"The lesson we learned especially when these specific [anti-trade] issues were raised is the need to address them. Not just saying, 'No, no no. It's no problem.' But really to listen to the people and to explain it," she told host Chris Hall.
"Canada with the European Union has taken very concrete points where concerns have been expressed that in the case of CETA...that these concerns are not founded."
Canada's measured reaction
This week Prime Minister Justin Trudeau offered Trump a conciliatory welcome and offering to host the businessman turned celebrity turned president.
This week's In-House panel, Globe and Mail reporter Laura Stone and Maclean's parliamentary bureau chief John Geddes, said it's hard to speculate what the Canada-U.S. relationship with look like going forward, mainly because no one can predict what Trump will push through.
"There's a lot of uncertainty and probably a lot of fear here in the Liberal government," said Stone. "I think they're trying to get ahead of it and see him as positive as possible."
Despite calls for Trudeau to wade into the U.S. election, Geddes said Trudeau did the right thing by staying on the sidelines.
"Easy for him to like Barack Obama, hard for him to make a friend of Donald Trump," he said.
