NBA Finals: Best team ever vs. best player ever?
In Warriors-Cavs III, the stats favour Golden State but Cleveland has LeBron
After splitting the last two championship series, the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers are set to square off in the NBA Finals for a third consecutive year.
Golden State beat Cleveland to win the title two years ago, won 73 games last season, then added former MVP Kevin Durant last summer.
The Cavaliers won their city's first championship in over 50 years last season, coming back from down 3-1 in the Finals to exact revenge on the Warriors.
Both teams are healthy heading into Game 1 on Thursday night. They've combined for a 24-1 record in breezing through their conference playoffs, reaffirming their status as the two best teams in basketball, with many of the best players.
It's Steph Curry vs. Kyrie Irving. Draymond Green vs. Kevin Love. LeBron James vs. Kevin Durant.
Warriors-Cavaliers III is quite possibly the greatest team ever versus the greatest player ever. Welcome to the grudge match.
The team
It's easy to build a case for the Warriors to dethrone the Cavs. Their net rating (point differential per 100 possessions) of 12.1 was more than four points better than that of the second-place San Antonio Spurs.
The Warriors like to run, and the key for the Cavs is to slow them down. In their two regular-season meetings, the Cavaliers won by one point when the Warriors had 77 shooting possessions, and lost by 35 when they had 88.
The Warriors hold the fourth-best post-season offensive rating of all time, and there's probably still room for improvement. They've passed less than they did in the regular season, and for a team that loves to forgo good shots for great ones, that's a scary proposition.
Perhaps the most impressive part of the Warriors' playoff run is their defence. Their defensive rating in the playoffs is 99.1, which would have led the regular season. And it's come against good offences in the Trail Blazers, Jazz and Spurs.
The key to Golden State's stout defence is Green, whose biggest defensive strength may be rim protection. He led the NBA, amongst players with at least 70 games played, with a 48.3 opponents' field goal percentage within six feet of the basket. Durant and Klay Thompson are also underrated, above-average defenders for their positions.
Draymond Green on a possible Cavaliers vs Warriors rematch - "I want to destroy Cleveland. I want to annihilate them."
—@NBABBGAMETIMEThe player
Durant will likely will be tasked with guarding James, and the best player in the world poses a number of different threats. Through three rounds, he's averaging 32.5 points, eight rebounds and seven assists. He's scored more baskets and reached the free-throw line more than anyone else in the playoffs. His biggest weakness — long-distance shooting — has suddenly become a strength, having improved to 42 per cent from 36 per cent in the regular season.
Play LeBron tight, and he'll blow by you and force another defender to slide over for help, thus leaving a shooter open somewhere else. Give him space, and he'll shoot right over the top, or back you down. It's an impossible decision, and it's why Cleveland has a chance. The best argument against all the statistical evidence favouring the Warriors is simply "But Lebron."
James is a menace on defence too. The Cavs have let him roam like a football free safety, guarding the offence's weakest link and charging in to help his teammates where necessary. But that may not work against a Warriors lineup full of threats. Instead, he will likely cover Durant in a match-up he must win for his team to have a chance.
Everything else
Irving hit the Finals-winning shot last year. Love has improved each year with the Cavaliers, and seems to have found his place with the team. The Cavs aren't just LeBron's team. They're littered with three-point shooters. James, Love, Kyle Korver, J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert, Richard Jefferson, Channing Frye and Deron Williams are all over 40 per cent in the playoffs. That's every rotation player except Irving, at 35.6 per cent, and Tristan Thompson, who has yet to attempt one.
What Thompson, a Toronto native, lacks in shooting, he makes up for in rebounding. He has a knack for cleaning up the offensive glass — something that will be key in limiting Warriors possessions. He also anchors the Cavs' starting lineup on defence as its de facto centre, and checks in as a last option on offence, demoralizing opponents with a wide array of floaters.
However, it's not like the Warriors can't keep up with Cleveland's firepower, given their roster of snipers. Thompson, Curry and Durant are each liable to go off in any given game.
Golden State will be without coach Steve Kerr for at least Game 1. The coach has missed most of the playoffs with back problems. Former Cavaliers coach Mike Brown took over in the interim and hasn't missed a beat. Now, he'll have his shot at revenge.
We've been waiting for the Finals all season long. How will Durant change the equation? Can Green control his emotions? Can Irving keep up with a streaking Curry? What do these games mean for LeBron's legacy?
We'll find out when the Finals tip off Thursday.