What we know and don't know about the Beijing Olympics as COVID-19 surges
COC says possible postponement could be discussed, IOC dismisses subject
The Beijing Winter Olympics are scheduled to begin in exactly one month, on Feb. 4.
But whether they happen as planned seems less certain than ever.
Canada's Dick Pound, a senior member of the International Olympic Committee (IOC), told CBC News recently that postponement was not being considered.
"Unless there's something apocalyptic that happens in the next three or four weeks, I don't see that as a real threat," he said.
But on Friday, Canadian Olympic Committee (COC) CEO David Shoemaker told CBC Sports' Scott Russell on Friday that he was "worried" about the Beijing Games going ahead as planned, given the increasing spread of the Omicron variant.
"We have yet to have a conversation with the IOC about postponement but we're having conversations on a very frequent basis with the participating winter sport nations and it may well come up," Shoemaker said.
On Dec. 7, another key Olympic executive also said postponement was not on the table. But for reference, Canada reported 2,961 new COVID-19 cases that day. On Friday, that number was over 41,000.
WATCH | Shoemaker discusses Canada's plans for Beijing:
Not only are the Games themselves on the edge. Even if they do proceed, plenty of unanswered questions remain with just 31 days until the opening ceremony.
Here's what else we know and don't know:
We know that Beijing organizers devised a closed-loop system to contain all Olympians, related staff and media within a bubble limited to competition venues, training centres, transportation and living spaces. Only local spectators will be allowed at competitions, meaning athletes' family and friends must remain at home. The plan is part of the Olympics' COVID-19 playbook, established by the IOC and Beijing organizers to contain the virus and hold competition safely.
We know the system is stricter than Tokyo 2020, which allowed for some movement outside its bubble and full freedom following two weeks of repeated negative tests. The Summer Olympics were mostly unaffected, with relatively few cases reported. However, the Omicron variant is much more transmissible than the Delta variant, which was predominant in the summer.
We know that two noteworthy groups of people won't be present in Beijing: diplomatic representatives from Canada and the U.S. among other countries, and NHL players. The former won't attend because of concerns about human-rights abuses against ethnic minorities in China; the latter because of disruptions to the regular-season schedule, making an Olympic break infeasible, according to the league.
We know some Canadian athletes are already at risk. Fourteen members of the bobsleigh team recently tested positive, while the women's hockey team announcement was delayed and the mixed doubles curling trials were cancelled due to positive tests among athletes. For all those affected, there are now even more hurdles to jump before the Olympics.
"I'd say the biggest risk, which is spread around the world, is that Canada may have a few folks that are positive and we simply won't let them on an aircraft to China," Pound said.
WATCH | Pound says postponement not an option:
We know a positive test in Beijing could hamper competition. Those who are asymptomatic are sent to an isolation centre, where they require two negative tests 24 hour apart to leave — enough time to sideline an athlete from competition. The replacement system differs across sports and events. Still, a theoretical moguls race minus Mikaël Kingsbury or a figure skating final without Nathan Chen would certainly lose some lustre.
We don't know who will represent Team Canada. Besides women's hockey and mixed doubles curling, other sports have also been affected by postponements and cancellations, complicating the qualification process. Final athlete nominations must be sent to the COC by Jan. 19 and submitted to Beijing organizers five days later. The only confirmed Canadian Olympians for now are the Jennifer Jones and Brad Gushue curling rinks, who won Olympic trials in November.
We know Canadian representatives must be fully vaccinated. It's not an Olympic-wide mandate, though the unvaccinated must serve a three-week quarantine in China before entering the bubble. The COC announcement came in October, meaning booster shots were not part of the equation at the time. Over 95 per cent of the Canadian delegation in Tokyo was fully vaccinated, and the team did not report a single case of the virus.
We don't know how many medals Canada will earn. Obviously. But Gracenote, a data-based projection company, predicts Canada will land on 23 podiums, including seven gold medals. It says six of those will come from freestyle skiing — a seemingly safe bet after Canada hauled in five medals over two World Cup races in Calgary this weekend.
Of course, that's all assuming these Olympics proceed as planned. And with just one month to go, we don't even know about that.
