Canada leapfrogs Mongolia in 'virtual medal table'

A change in methodology has slightly improved Canada's medal hopes at this summer's Rio Olympics, based on data from Infostrada sports. 

According to the Virtual Medal Table, Canada could win two gold medals — up from one gold in the previous month's predictor — putting the country in 32nd position, leaping ahead of smaller countries such as Mongolia, Uzbekistan and Slovenia.

(The medal predictor table appears on the right-hand side of CBC's Road to the Olympic Games page.)

In the past two monthly predictions, Canada was 39th and 41st.

Infostrada is providing CBC with a medal predictor table in advance of the Games so fans can get a sense of how Team Canada will fare.

It's based on results from world championships, World Cup events and top-level international competitions from 2012 to 2016. But a new change, affecting track and field and swimming, now includes special credit for the top 16 performances achieved since May 2015.

This moves Canadian heptathlete Brianne Theisen-Eaton into a "virtual" gold medal position, according to Infostrada.

"Brianne Theisen-Eaton takes over the heptathlon gold medal position from 2012 Olympic champion Jessica Ennis-Hill because of Thiesen-Eaton's 6808 points in Gotzis last year," explains Infostrada's Simon Gleave. "This is the number one performance in terms of heptathlon points in the period."

The same logic also cost Canada two bronze medals in swimming, with Emily Overholt (400m IM) and Ryan Cochrane (400m freestyle) falling off the virtual podium in the new calculations. 

Canada is now forecast to win 17 medals (two gold, three silver, 12 bronze) in Rio. Gleave points out that if Canada turns a few of the predicted silvers and bronzes into gold, the team could move into the top 20 in the overall medal table.