How many medals will Canada win at the Beijing Paralympics?
Strong mix of veterans, newcomers could make for most successful Winter Games ever
Canada won a national-record 28 medals at the 2018 Pyeongchang Paralympics, blowing away its previous Winter Games mark of 19 set in 2010.
However, that new number came with a caveat: only eight golds in 2018, compared to 10 in 2010.
At Beijing 2022, both records could fall — especially when accounting for the 36 medals (12 gold) won by Belarus and the Russians in 2018 that are now up for grabs.
Here's a non-scientific, sport-by-sport look at how many medals Canadians may earn in China:
Wheelchair curling, hockey
We'll group these sports together for their relative simplicity. Canada has one team entered in each, and it can max out at two medals across both. The hockey team has missed the podium twice at the Paralympics — most recently in 2010 — but enters Beijing as co-favourites with the U.S. The curling squad failed to get gold in 2018 for the first time ever, but it settled for bronze and remains a contender even as its dominance wanes. Two medals.
WATCH | Star forward Billy Bridges' winding path to the national team:
Snowboarding
An easy place to improve, as Canada enters Beijing without a single medal since the sport was introduced in 2014. That should change in Beijing with a strong quartet (Tyler Turner, Alex Massie, Lisa DeJong, Sandrine Hamel) that returned home from January's world championships with a whopping eight podium appearances, including three gold medals. Don't expect eight in Beijing — two of the golds were won in team events, which aren't part of the Paralympic program — but another shutout would count as a massive surprise. Roughly five medals.
WATCH | Turner takes gold at worlds:
Nordic skiing
Encompassing cross-country skiing and biathlon, the sport has accounted for just over one-quarter of Canada's all-time Winter Paralympics medals — but also over half (16) of its Pyeongchang total, which may explain the large leap in success. They may be four years older now, but every Canadian athlete that stood on the podium is back for Beijing.
Mark Arendz, meanwhile, scored six medals in six events — three in each Nordic discipline — in 2018 en route to being named Canada's closing ceremony flag-bearer. His total, like McKeever, literally cannot be improved, though he'll attempt to repeat the feat in China.
Rounding out the Canadian team are the likes of Brittany Hudak, Natalie Wilkie and Collin Cameron, all of whom landed on podiums in 2018. It's also worth noting that the Russians and Belarusians especially thrive in Nordic, opening more opportunities for Canadians. Given all that, let's be like McKeever and Arendz and plan for a repeat of roughly 16 medals.
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Alpine skiing
The rest of the squad remains strong. It's led by Mac Marcoux, a 24-year-old visually impaired athlete who already owns five Paralympic medals, including two gold. Marcoux didn't compete at worlds. Mollie Jepsen was the breakout star of the 2018 Games, grabbing four medals in her Paralympic debut. There will be more pressure on the 22-year-old West Vancouver, B.C., native in China following a tumultuous last four years that included injuries and illness before a seeming return to form this season.
Katie Combaluzier, 28, is hoping to follow in Jepsen's footsteps. The Toronto native is set for her Paralympic debut after earning three medals at worlds. Alana Ramsay and Alexis Guimond round out the returning medallists.
Given the current state of Canada's Para alpine team, another 10 podiums seems like a tall task. Let's pencil them in for roughly seven medals.
Conclusion
Add up all the rough predictions and we're left with 30 medals, which would break the record of 28 set four years ago. Of course, anything can happen — an injury to star athletes like Arendz and McKeever would be a major blow. Still, with most of a strong team sticking around from four years ago, some new stars in snowboarding and the absence of Russians and Belarusians, Canada appears primed for its most successful Winter Paralympics ever.
