Ageless Fraser-Pryce ready to contend in stacked 100m at worlds despite long layoff
36-year-old can't be counted out after running back-to-back 10.80s last month
This is a column by Morgan Campbell, who writes opinion for CBC Sports. For more information about CBC's Opinion section, please see the FAQ.
I can't lie: watching Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce end a long layoff last month by running back-to-back 100-metre races in the low 10.80s hurt my ego.
For me, predicting the medal winners and finishing times in sprint finals at global championships is a point of pride. Sometimes, I'm accurate to within a hundredth of a second. Having Fraser-Pryce back on the track, and back in phenomenal shape, complicates the process of forecasting a preposterously deep women's 100-metre final, set for Sunday at the World Athletics Championships in Budapest, Hungary.
But it's not about my pride, or my prognostications. I'm not here to help you bet on this race. I'm here to help you understand it.
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First thing to know is that the field is beyond stacked. Favourites include Shericka Jackson, whose 10.65-second clocking at Jamaican national championships leads the world this season, and Sha'Carri Richardson of the U.S., who has defeated Jackson twice in 2023. Marie Josée Ta Lou of the Ivory Coast has run 10.75, and now here comes Fraser-Pryce, the 22-time world and Olympic medallist, who delayed her season debut until July because of a reported knee injury.
She opened with 10.82 in Switzerland on July 20, then followed up that result by running 10.83 in Spain two days later. When assessing Sunday's race, those times carry more weight than what many analysts would call Fraser-Pryce's "championship pedigree" does. The medals tell you what she did in the past, but current results say she's capable of breaking 10.80 right now, which signals that she's ready to win yet another medal.
WATCH | Prepare for a spicy women's 100m at worlds:
The upshot is, the already uphill climb for any three 100-metre sprinters to reach the podium just got a few degrees steeper.
We likely won't see a new world record, thanks to Florence Griffith-Joyner, whose 10.49 is beyond the reach of even this generation of super-athletes. But if you want to see history (exactly how many people will set personal/national/regional records in the final?), and to see sports and entertainment and personal rivalries all compressed into 10.7 hectic seconds — this is your competition.
The men's 100 metres, scheduled for Saturday night, is the nominal marquee race, but in this track meet it's the co-feature. The women are the main event.
Several contenders
Even three days ahead of the first-round heats, we can identify several clear contenders, who each bring a distinct subplot to the race.
Richardson, the popular, polarizing American, has run in the low 10.70s under a number of circumstances — with the wind or against it, against also-rans or top-tier elites. Back in April, she ran a wind-aided 10.57, another clue that her otherworldly top-end speed was as sharp as ever. But can she produce it in a pressure-filled final in Budapest? That's her test.
Ta Lou is the steady veteran from the Ivory Coast who ran a 10.72 second personal best last season, at age 33, and has posted a 10.75 this season. She has run sub-11 in every non-pandemic season since 2016, but has never won gold at the world level.
And what about Dina Asher-Smith, the gold medallist over 200 metres in 2019? She has sharpened her 100-metre speed since then.
Or Julien Alfred, the St. Lucian phenom who won NCAA titles at 100 and 200 metres in June? She outran Richardson in her pro debut, and recently signed with Puma, but can she peak again after a long collegiate season? Canadians know it's possible. That's how Andre De Grasse went from college athlete to national icon in 2015.
WATCH | Previewing the Canadian contingent in Budapest:
Last month, Netflix announced plans to give world class track and field the Drive to Survive treatment. Sometime before the Paris Olympics next summer, we'll see a reality series chronicling world class sprinters like Asher-Smith, and the American standouts Noah Lyles and Fred Kerley.
But this women's 100-metre final could spawn a feature-length documentary on its own.
All these protagonists, and we haven't even mentioned Fraser-Pryce yet.
She has 13 world and Olympic titles to her credit, the most recent coming last year in Eugene, Ore., when she ran 10.67. Here, I could lean on clichés, like the aforementioned "championship pedigree," and cast Fraser-Pryce as the "defending champion" heading into Saturday's opening round. But those labels actually do a disservice to the greatest women's sprinter in history.
WATCH | Campbell breaks down why Fraser-Pryce is the 100m GOAT:
Not a defending champion
Quick aside for a sports grammar lesson:
If we're not talking pro boxing or mixed martial arts, there are no former or defending champions — just past and future ones. The 2022 100-metre title belongs to Fraser-Pryce. This year is a different competition, so the title is vacant. Nobody owns a 2023 medal from Budapest yet. Podium is still empty.
We toss around the term "defending champion" as if that confers an advantage on last year's gold medallist, but Fraser-Price will have the same start and finish line as everybody else. Same stadium, same crowd, same race marshalls, same frantic scramble for medals. Last year's medallists don't get a bye to the final. They start from zero and race again.
Fraser-Pryce's gold medal from 2022 says nothing about how she'll run this weekend. She doesn't get to place her starting blocks half a metre in front of Jackson's.
But those back-to-back 10.8s?
They indicate that, even after a long absence from competition, even at age 36, Fraser-Pryce is ready to contend.
Again.
Incredibly.
If you can unequivocally predict a Fraser-Pryce win right now, you're either guessing, or you're a hardcore Shelly-Ann fan, forecasting from the heart. Three sprinters have run faster than Fraser-Pryce has this season, and two of them — Jackson and Richardson — are still in their 20s. Normally, I'd look at these results, cross-reference them with the athletes' ages, and declare that it's time to pass the torch.
This year, I can't say for sure.
None of this is normal.
That's why it's so fascinating.
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