Grey Cup primer: Can Winnipeg avoid another upset?

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This is the Blue Bombers' fifth consecutive appearance in the Grey Cup — quite the reversal for a franchise that went 29 years without a championship before finally breaking through with back-to-back titles in 2019 and 2021 (the 2020 season was wiped out by the pandemic). No team has experienced a run like this since Edmonton reached six straight Grey Cups from 1977 to '82, winning the last five as future NFL star Warren Moon blossomed into the CFL's best player.

But the line between dynasty and laughingstock can be painfully thin (ask the '90s Buffalo Bills). Since going back-to-back, the Bombers have suffered two straight upset losses in the Grey Cup. The Argos beat them in 2022 as 4½-point underdogs before Montreal shocked them last year as an 8-point dog.

Winnipeg is a nine-point favourite to defeat Toronto this Sunday, implying the Bombers have around an 80 per cent chance of recapturing the Grey Cup. But if they don't, they'll become the first team in 68 years to lose three in a row.

Toronto is counting on a backup quarterback again.

Two years ago in Regina, Chad Kelly came off the bench in the fourth quarter of the Grey Cup to replace the Argos' injured starter and engineered the go-ahead touchdown drive in Toronto's 24-23 upset of Winnipeg. Turned out, Kelly was pretty good: he won the CFL's Most Outstanding Player award the next season as the Argos went 16-2 before face-planting in the East final against eventual champion Montreal.

After serving a nine-game suspension to start this season for violating the league's gender-based violence policy, Kelly appeared to be finding his footing at the right time. He accounted for five touchdowns in Toronto's 58-38 win over Ottawa in the first round of the playoffs and had the Argos up two scores on Montreal in last week's East final rematch.

But Kelly broke his ankle late in the third quarter, pressing backup Nick Arbuckle into his first CFL playoff action. The sixth-year journeyman did the job, completing five of eight throws for 73 yards and getting Toronto in range for a key field goal before the Argos hung on for a costly 30-28 win over the CFL's top-ranked team.

Arbuckle didn't play much this year, even when Kelly was suspended. Before the East final, his most notable appearance came in a meaningless regular-season finale against Edmonton. Arbuckle put up some impressive numbers in that game, throwing for 378 yards, two touchdowns and an interception in a 31-30 overtime loss to the Elks.

But the Blue Bombers are a different beast. They surrendered a CFL-low 20.3 points per game this season as shutdown cornerback Tyrell Ford ranked second in the league with seven interceptions.

The Bombers are fuelled by a hometown star.

Winnipeg's own Brady Oliveira led the CFL in rushing yards for the second straight season and is once again a finalist for the Most Outstanding Player award, along with Hamilton quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell. Oliveira is also up for Most Outstanding Canadian, which he won last year after becoming just the 15th player in CFL history to gain 2,000 yards from scrimmage in a season.

Oliveira's stellar running helped Winnipeg rebound from an 0-4 start to finish 11-7 and top the West Division standings for the fourth straight time (hat tip also to a semi-miraculous wind gust that helped the Bombers win their regular-season finale at Montreal to clinch the division and a first-round bye). He added 119 yards rushing and a touchdown in last week's decisive 38-22 victory over Saskatchewan in the West final.

On Sunday, Winnipeg will need Oliveira to help open things up for veteran QB Zach Collaros. He was sacked a total of 12 times as Toronto swept the season series with 16-14 and 14-11 wins in Weeks 8 and 19, respectively. Time and again in pro football, we've seen an overwhelming pass rush pave the way for a major upset.

So you're saying the Argos have a chance?

At first glance, the quarterback mismatch seems too big for Toronto to overcome. Arbuckle (all due respect) is a nobody who's never appeared on the biggest stage in Canadian football, while Collaros is a two-time MOP and three-time Grey Cup champ who was the MVP of the 2021 title game. 

But the Bombers QB is 36 years old, and he threw almost as many interceptions (15) as touchdowns (17) this season for an offence that ranked second-worst in the league in points per game and sixth out of nine teams in yards per play. On the other hand, that might be enough for Winnipeg's dominant defence, barring a storybook Grey Cup debut by Arbuckle.

Considering all that, along with those two regular-season rock fights, I guess the safest thing to predict is another close, low-scoring contest. But, as the Bombers can attest, anything can happen in the Grey Cup.