Canada faces a must-not-lose match at the World Cup
A defeat to Croatia on Sunday would mean elimination
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Wednesday's 1-0 loss to Belgium was a landmark moment in the history of Canadian soccer. More than simply making their first World Cup appearance in 36 years, the men's national team proved it belongs on the sport's biggest stage. Sure, the aging Belgians' No. 2 world ranking is dubious, but they're still among the better sides on the planet — and Canada undeniably outplayed them. Had Alphonso Davies' penalty kick or one of Canada's many other quality scoring chances found the back of the net, this ascendant Canadian team could easily be the talk of the tournament right now.
However, a loss is a loss. And, under the unforgiving format of the World Cup, Canada flatly can not afford another. With only the top two in each four-team group advancing, a second loss is a death sentence. In fact, anything less than a pair of wins now might not be enough. Since the tournament expanded to 32 teams in 1998, the average number of points for a group runner-up is five. A win is worth three points. A draw is worth one. So, do the math. Or let the betting markets do it for you. The current odds on the Canadians getting past the group stage imply they have a 1-in-4 chance.
That's the cold reality facing Canada heading into its next match, on Sunday at 11 a.m. ET vs. Croatia. The 12th-ranked Croatians made it all the way to the final of the last World Cup, but, like Belgium, are considered to be past their prime as a team. Tireless midfield maestro Luka Modric, who won the Golden Ball as the best player in the tournament four years ago, is still playing at a high level for his club (Real Madrid) and country, but he's 37 now.
Croatia looked so-so in its opener, playing a tough Morocco team to a scoreless draw in a match it was slightly favoured to win. After that result and Canada's strong showing against Belgium, the betting markets have turned more bullish on the Canadians' chances vs. Croatia. The current odds imply about a 45 per cent chance for a Croatia win, 27 per cent for a Canada victory and roughly the same for a draw. In the lead-up to the tournament, the Croatians were at about 55 per cent to win this match.
The book on Croatia is that its Modric-anchored midfield is a real strength but the guys in front and behind them are a little shaky. Canada was able to make Belgium's Kevin De Bruyne — often touted as the best midfielder in the world — look pretty ordinary as it outplayed his team for the vast majority of the opener. So maybe the Canadians will match up well against Modric and the Croatians too.
In other World Cup news:
Brazil looked every bit the tournament favourite in its opening 2-0 win over Serbia yesterday, which featured the goal of the tournament so far by Richarlison. But the victory came at a cost, as superstar forward Neymar suffered an ankle injury that will keep him out of Brazil's next match (vs. Switzerland on Monday) and perhaps longer. Brazilian defender Danilo is in the same boat due to an ankle injury of his own. Read more about these troubling losses for Brazil here.
Today's results:
After opening with a 6-2 rout of Iran on Monday, Group B favourite England regressed with today's 0-0 draw vs. an energetic United States team, which earned its second tie. Iran rebounded with a mild upset of Wales, winning 2-0 after the team stepped back from its defiance of Iran's rulers by singing the national anthem before the match. Read CBC Sports soccer correspondent Chris Jones' story on that here.
Group A favourite the Netherlands settled for a 1-1 draw with Ecuador that left both teams with a win, a draw and no losses. Senegal (1-0-1) is right behind after its 3-1 win over Qatar (0-0-2), which became the first host team ever to be eliminated after two matches.
Tomorrow's matches:
It's Tunisia (0-1-0) vs. Australia (0-0-1) at 5 a.m. ET, Poland (0-1-0) vs. Saudi Arabia (1-0-0) at 8 a.m. ET, France (1-0-0) vs. Denmark (0-1-0) at 11 a.m. ET and Argentina (0-0-1) vs. Mexico (0-1-0) at 2 p.m. ET.
All eyes are on Lionel Messi and the Argentines, who came into the tournament as the No. 2 betting favourites before losing to Saudi Arabia in one of the biggest upsets in World Cup history. The best matchup of the day is between defending champion France, who silenced their critics (at least momentarily) with a 4-1 win over weak Australia, and Denmark, a trendy sleeper pick who had a disappointing 0-0 draw vs. Tunisia.
Another huge match is Sunday's Spain vs. Germany tilt. After getting upset 2-1 by Japan, the four-time World Cup champion Germans are in danger of elimination as they face a powerful Spanish team coming off a 7-0 rout of Costa Rica.
