Homeownership gap between starter, dream residence widens

It’s getting harder for young families to move up from their first home to a mid- or higher-priced one because of the widening gap between starter and dream homes, according to a new report from CIBC World Markets.

In already expensive housing markets such as Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton and Ottawa, the mid- to high-priced homes are rising in price more quickly than cheaper homes, CIBC deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal says after studying housing data from across Canada.

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Most Canadian couples assume they’ll start out in a smaller home, or possibly a condo, sometime in their 20s or 30s, then move up to a larger home as their family grows, Tal says.

"However, there are many indications that this cycle that dominated the Canadian housing market for decades is breaking," Tal says.

In the lower-price ranges, the Canadian housing market has cooled, in part because of measures taken by the federal government to make it harder to qualify for a mortgage. An abundant supply of new condos also prevents prices from rising quickly in this segment of the market, the CIBC report said.

But there is limited supply of mid- to higher-priced single family homes and that has led them to rise in price more quickly, especially in the past 18 months, the report said.

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While Canadian housing prices rose an average of five per cent in 2014, the gains are assymetrical, with prices falling in cities such as St. John’s, Victoria and Quebec City.

In Toronto, the price of homes in the $300,000 to $500,000 range rose, on average, about 28 per cent between the first quarter of 2010 and the first quarter of 2014. However, homes priced between $800,000 and $1.2 million jumped over 40 per cent, and homes between $1.2 million and $1.6 million shot up more than 50 per cent in the same period.

In Vancouver, homes that sold for $500,000 to $800,00 have increased by only a few percentage points, whereas homes pricef at $1.1 million and higher have jumped by close to 18 per cent.

"Regardless of what your starting point is, and by how much your property has appreciated, the desired move-up target is getting further and further out of reach," Tal said.

CIBC’s report finds sales of units at the low-to-mid price range have fallen since 2010, sales in mid- to-high price range rose modestly, sales in the upper end of the market advanced rapidly, accounting for the steeper runup in prices.

With a dream home out of their price range, more Canadians are choosing to renovate.

Over the past five years, spending on home renovations as a share of total residential investment averaged close to 46 per cent, the largest on record.

Tal doesn’t expect the pressure on mid-range housing prices to let up, because of limited supply and says affordability is worsening as a result.