Jobless numbers to play larger role in long election: Don Pittis

The Canadian government collects data on a lot of economic indicators, but to the average voter not all make an equal impression.

Employment reports, like today's figures for July, have a bigger effect than most. The numbers quoted in today's headlines are relatively bland, showing that the country added 6,600 jobs, with the jobless rate remaining unchanged.

But all the political parties will be sifting through the numbers behind those numbers to see how it might affect them in the polls. 

• Canada added 6,600 jobs in July
• Canada's trade deficit narrows dramatically as exports surge
• Canada sheds 6,400 jobs in June

That's because unlike trade figures or, say, the monthly survey of manufacturing, joblessness has a direct and immediate impact on how you feel the economy is faring. According to voter polls, jobs, or the lack of them, are right at the top of the list of issues that people say will influence their vote.

• Saint John voters say jobs, economy top election issue
• Alberta election poll: Economy, jobs top election issue

This time round, because of the long 78-day campaign, political analysts and voters will have more jobs data to feast upon than ever. Counting today's numbers, Statistics Canada will release three sets of monthly data before the autumn election. The final figures, for September, will come out only 10 days before the Oct. 19 vote. 

Unemployment hurts

You can see why people take joblessness seriously. 

Even if they themselves are employed, the fact that adult children, grandchildren or close friends can't get work is an immediate reminder that things may be worse instead of better. The idea of unemployed offspring living in the basement has become such a trope that Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz weighed in on the subject.

Unfortunately for Poloz, there was an angry backlash when he advised students to get out of the basement and work for free. 

• Stephen Poloz, unintended champion of jobless youth 

However, headline jobs statistics are only an approximation of the pain people are feeling. If youth with expensive degrees are stuck in dead-end low-paying jobs, statistics will still show them as employed. But on voting day they, or their parents, might think the economy has failed them.

The political effect of economic statistics is magnified by an election campaign. When the numbers are good, incumbents can crow. When they are bad their opponents can rub their noses in the news.

But to average voters, it may not be the release of the job statistics over the coming months that affects how people vote. Not everyone pays attention to such things. Instead, the most important election impact may be the economic mood those statistics reveal. 

That's why the parties' researchers will be looking deeper into the details of each new Labour Force Survey Statistics Canada produces. 

Devil in the detail

Just as important as the total number of jobs and any change in the rate of unemployment, StatsCan offers a wealth of data to inform campaigners. Regional numbers, for example, may show growing dissatisfaction in energy-producing provinces as another fall in crude prices leads to another round of oil company spending cuts.

Breakdown by industry will show sectors where jobs are growing and whether those jobs are good or bad. While part-time jobs of a few hours a week take people off the unemployment rolls, an increase in full-time jobs is likely to increase voter satisfaction. 

Last time round, in the June statistics, part-time jobs fell sharply, but they were replaced by full-time jobs. Most economists consider that a good indicator. However, most of the new jobs did not indicate an industrial rebound. They were government jobs.

Like huge forest fires that create their own weather systems, elections create their own jobs. Also, seasonal factors may pep up the statistics as full-time students go back to school and fall out of the official job statistics. 

According to research from a number of jurisdictions around the world cited in the book Mass Politics in Tough Times, worsening unemployment does have a negative effect on an incumbent's re-election chances. However, the research shows the impact of economic growth (GDP) has a more direct statistical correlation.

In other words, even if job figures look good, a general feeling of economic decline can sour voters' taste for the incumbent governent.

A recent economic report from the think-tank C.D.Howe Institute said improving employment means falling GDP doesn't matter so much.

But that may not be so comforting to the Harper Conservatives if the economy continues to shrink in the months before the election. 

Follow Don on Twitter @don_pittis

​More analysis by Don Pittis