NHL says Olympics are out — but is the latest move just a 'time out' on talks?
Russian star Alexander Ovechkin says he's going to play in the 2018 Winter Games
The NHL has closed the door to allowing NHL players to compete in the Olympics. But, with much at stake for all sides, that door may not be locked.
The league said in a statement on Monday that it is finalizing its schedule for next season — presumably without a break for the 2018 Olympics. The matter is "officially closed," the league said.
Not everyone agrees that fans won't be seeing NHL players on the ice in Pyeongchang.
"There is still a chance that they will go," says sports marketing consultant Gord Hendren. "I think they are still negotiating."
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There's little doubt, analysts say, that the NHL doesn't want the Olympic question to be a distraction during its playoffs, which start next week.
The NHL's statement — which does not definitively rule out participation in the Olympics — will likely tamp down the speculation, which has been building for many months.
"It is a time out," says Hendren.
That analysis fits into a pattern. It took until the mid-summer of 2013 for the league to hammer out a deal to allow its players to participate in the games in Sochi in 2014.
The NHL is concerned about the risk its players could be injured (Canada's John Tavares suffered a season-ending knee injury in Sochi) and seeking compensation to cover, among other things, the cost of shutting down the league for the Olympics.
It's estimated the bill for sending the professional players could be as much as $20 million US.
According to the NHL, the IOC has said it won't pay the travel, accommodation and insurance costs for the NHL players in 2018. The International Ice Hockey Federation suggested they had the cash to foot the bill but that offer wasn't taken up by the league, with Bettman saying it wasn't the right use of IIHF money.
Will fan fervour for hockey cool?
If there's no deal, broadcasters and advertisers may take a hit. Without the world's best hockey players, TV ratings for the Olympic Games could suffer.
Both NBC and CBC have expressed "disappointment" at the NHL's announcement that the matter closed, although both broadcasters emphasized there will still be men's hockey teams competing for medals at the games in Korea.
"It is not secret that Canada has a love affair, a long-standing love affair, with hockey, seemingly at every level," says Chuck Thompson, head of public affairs at CBC English Services. "Canadian hockey fans will be cheering for our women's team and our men's team, whoever is wearing that jersey."
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Richard Powers, who specializes in sports management at the Rotman School of Management in Toronto, says he doesn't think the NHL's decision will "hurt the bottom line at all."
"It's the Olympics. It's hockey. It's not going to make a big difference."
It's not hard to imagine the Olympics without NHL players. They only started competing in the games in 1998. Previously, Canadian teams suffered from not having the country's best players available, although in the very early years of men's Olympic hockey, the country did dominate.
The legendary Winnipeg Falcons team won the first Olympic gold medal for hockey in 1920 and Canadian teams also took the gold at the next three Olympics.
Canada won Olympic gold in 1952, but the men's team failed to clinch the gold for 50 years after.
The drought didn't end until 2002, when a team full of NHL players led by captain Mario Lemieux took gold in Salt Lake City, Utah.
It is possible that in 2018 an underdog team of lesser Canadian stars could become a compelling story for fans, should they succeed at making it to the gold medal game. But the NHL will likely face pressure from some of its biggest stars, who always want to play in the biggest games possible.
Alexander Ovechkin of the Washington Capitals has consistently said he plans to play whether or not the NHL takes an Olympic break, something he repeated after the league's announcement.
"Anything can change," said Ovechkin. "But in my mind like I said already, I'm going. It doesn't matter what."
Powers doubts the NHL will budge this time.
"I think it's a done deal. They are not going to the Olympics," Powers says. "It's the owners. This time they are just more adamant."
Chasing fans in China
The pressure on the owners may grow, however.
The IOC recently issued a threat, hinting that if the NHL fails to participate in the upcoming Winter Olympics, the league might not be welcome in China four years later, a vast market the NHL covets.
NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman recently announced that two exhibition games between the Vancouver Canucks and the Los Angeles Kings will be played in China this fall.
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"In the long-term, the Olympics offers the NHL a massive global platform to market their product," says Hendren. "And the big payoff will be in China in 2022."
The implication is clear — if the only way to protect the payoff in China is to play in South Korea, the NHL might be persuaded, eventually, to cut a deal.
"If the NHL was to pass completely on the Olympics, I think that would in the long-term hurt their global business," says Hendren.
"The last shoe has not dropped."
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