What's driving the surge in support for the B.C. Conservatives?
B.C. United rebrand, federal ‘blue wave’ among reasons for boost, experts say, as provincial election nears
As British Columbians prepare for the Oct. 19 provincial election, a party that's been relegated to the political outskirts for almost half a century is experiencing a dramatic resurgence.
The Conservative Party of B.C. under leader John Rustad is climbing high in the polls, raking in donations and aiming to field candidates in ridings throughout the province.
A survey from Mainstreet Research on Tuesday put the B.C. Conservatives in the lead in terms of voting intention at 36 per cent support, ahead of the B.C. NDP at 33 per cent.
The party has also surpassed the official Opposition B.C. United in terms of donations, with $1.1 million raised between April and June.
It's an incredible rise for a party that took less than two per cent of the popular vote in the 2020 provincial election.
But what's driving the momentum? Experts point to several factors.
B.C. United rebrand
While it was dominant in provincial politics during the early 20th century, the B.C. Conservatives declined and spent much of the past 50 years on the political fringes.
Mario Canseco, president of Research Co., says signs of a resurgence began appearing in mid-2023, around the same time the Opposition B.C. Liberals, under leader Kevin Falcon, rebranded as B.C. United.
"We've been tracking [Kevin Falcon's] approval ratings since he became leader of the B.C. Liberals [in 2022] … at one point it was as high as 44 per cent," said Canseco.
"The rebrand and Kevin Falcon's leadership style changes that, and they start to drop. At the same time, the B.C. Conservatives start to rise."
Canseco suggests the rebrand was at least partly why four incumbent B.C. United MLAs have since chosen to defect to the B.C. Conservatives: Teresa Wat (Richmond North Centre), Lorne Doerkson (Cariboo-Chilcotin), Elenore Sturko (Surrey South) and Bruce Banman (Abbotsford South).
"Part of the complexity [with the rebrand] is it makes it difficult for people to attach the new brand to well known incumbents. And I think that is part of the problem that has led to so many… B.C. Liberals jumping ship," Canseco said.
Elections B.C. confirmed earlier in August that B.C. United asked for its former name to be included on the ballot for the fall election. The request was approved, so the party's ballot name will appear as "B.C. United (Former B.C. Liberal Party)."
Canseco views this move as a "tacit acknowledgement that the rebrand was a failure."
Riding the federal 'blue wave'
Some political experts say the surge is also connected to support for Pierre Poilievre's federal Conservatives.
"The B.C. Conservatives were in the right place at the right time," said Hamish Telford, associate professor of political science at the University of the Fraser Valley.
"The B.C. Liberals had changed their name to B.C. United, just thinking they could carry on with a new name, not recognizing that the circumstances had changed. And those new circumstances were this Conservative wave sweeping across the country."
Poilievre's Conservatives have led in national polls for over a year and reported record-breaking donations. Their June byelection victory in Toronto-St. Paul's, a longtime federal Liberal stronghold, further validates claims of their growing momentum.
Telford says this national momentum has created ripple effects at the provincial level, allowing the B.C. Conservatives to capitalize on the shifting political landscape.
"These waves happen periodically and if you're in the right place at the right time, you can take advantage of them," said Telford.
"I think if you stop people on the street today, most people wouldn't know who the leader of the B.C. Conservatives is. They would probably say Pierre Poilievre. John Rustad is still not particularly well known. He has not engineered this wave; he has just been the beneficiary."
Data from the Angus Reid Institute in April found more than half of likely federal Conservative voters (56 per cent) would be more likely to support the B.C. Conservatives than B.C. United in the upcoming election.
Rustad has admitted his party gets "some benefit" from the popularity of the federal Tories, but he believes the support is driven more by a desire for change among voters.
"I think the biggest issue is since 1991, it's been 16 years of B.C. Liberals and 17 years of NDP," said Rustad.
"We're in a crisis. Whether it is health care, whether it is affordability, whether it's housing, whether it's drugs and addiction, whether it's crime… I think people in general are saying enough is enough. They're looking for common-sense change."
Elections B.C. said it approved a request from the B.C. Conservatives in 2023 to change its ballot name from "Conservative B.C." to "Conservative Party" for the upcoming election.
'Common sense' messaging
Angelo Isidorou, campaign director for the B.C. Conservatives, also attributes the party's rise to its straightforward communication style.
"We've gone through COVID and these past few years where we've all put our faith into technocrats and experts. And what we're seeing is that there's a population in this country, in this province, that have rejected that style of communication … and are now embracing this new type of messaging of just simple common sense change."
Both Rustad and Poilievre, though leading separate parties, have employed similar policy language, including phrases like "common sense," "axe the tax," "drug dens," and "catch and release."
Isidorou says some of these similarities are "coincidental" and the intention of the phrases is to help people understand the issues through simple conversation.
"They don't have to read a textbook," he said. "So, ending catch and release is in our platform, axing the carbon tax is obviously in our platform, and it's a huge part of what we hope to accomplish."
Canseco believes the "common sense" phrase is used by both parties to criticize the government's actions and frame themselves as an effective alternative.
"It's an effort to try to bring more people into the fold and look into some of the policies of the government as something that is radical and not common sense."
Canseco thinks the slogan might benefit Poilievre's party more than Rustad's, largely because of the unpopularity of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
"It works better at the federal level because there's a significant level of animosity towards Justin Trudeau, not only across the country, but in B.C. particularly, where his approval rating is at 26 per cent.
"It doesn't work that well when the approval rating for the NDP provincially is at 48 per cent."
'If you don't run scared, you run second'
The B.C. Conservatives' rise has not escaped the notice of the province's other political parties.
"In politics, if you don't run scared, you run second," said Moe Sihota, a former B.C. NDP cabinet minister who currently gives advice to the government.
"The NDP has to be running scared and it should, as should any other political party going into an election campaign. It doesn't mean they fear Mr. Rustad, but it means that they have to put every effort that they can to communicate their message."
Meanwhile, Falcon has been busy on the campaign trail, announcing recently that a B.C. United government would eliminate the provincial income tax on the first $50,000 earned by every British Columbian.
When asked about the rise of the B.C. Conservatives in May, Falcon said most British Columbians would prefer a moderate alternative to the status quo.
"They're not going to be looking for an extreme social conservative party. They're going to look for mainstream, and that's where B.C. United comes in," Falcon said.
Falcon previously told CBC that he considers most polls to be "almost useless nowadays."
"What matters in politics is members, money, message," Falcon told Stephen Quinn, host of CBC's The Early Edition, last December.
The Mainstreet survey on voting intention referenced in this article was conducted among 962 B.C. residents aged 18 or older on Aug. 15-17 using automated telephone interviews. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.2 per cent at the 95 per cent confidence level.
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With files from Katie DeRosa