Cautious approach by Christy Clark on Kinder Morgan sets up potential election showdown
NDP leader John Horgan is still trying to shed past NDP Kinder Morgan flip-flops
When Premier Christy Clark was noticeably silent yesterday after the federal government's decision to support the Kinder Morgan pipeline, it seemed this meant bad news. Politicians don't often shy away when things are good.
But as the dust settles on Tuesday's announcement, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's decision to support the Trans Mountain expansion has set up a clear path to a potential political boost for Clark heading into the May 9, 2017 provincial election.
Balancing jobs and the environment
The Kinder Morgan decision puts Clark directly in the middle of two contentious issues that she'll need to deal with.
On the one hand, the B.C. premier can't afford to be seen opposing a project that would create jobs and help the economy, considering she has staked her reputation on both those things.
On the other, she needs to tread carefully when considering supporting the project while environmental and First Nation groups are leading protests through the streets of Vancouver.
So, instead of saying a definitive yes or no to the project, Clark reaffirmed her government's five conditions for supporting pipeline projects. At the same time, she praised the federal government for getting closer to meeting those conditions.
"We have stuck to our guns. The five conditions have already meant that B.C. is going to see significant benefits when it comes to Coast Guard response." said Clark. "I think when people decide who they want to support politically, I think they do it based on whether people have clear and consistent principles."
Veiled attack on the NDP
Clark is referencing the B.C. NDP's changing position on the Kinder Morgan Trans Mountain project.
The most politically damaging was then leader Adrian Dix's famous Earth Day flip-flop where he said he was going to wait until the environmental assessment was done to weigh in on the pipeline's twinning.
Then, days before the 2013 election Dix decided he had waited long enough and expressed his opposition.
"I think that the premier will get to yes on this. I think she sees this as a perfect election issue. It worked great for her in 2013," said former premier Bill Bennett's chief of staff, now political watcher, Norman Spector.
Where Clark still falls short is explaining to voters how the federal government could meet her fifth condition, ensuring British Columbians get a fair share of the economic benefits. It's something Clark says she's still working on but will be criticized, if it's not done before the May 9, 2017 election.
Horgan's own problems
Horgan has challenges of his own on the issue. The NDP leader is currently against the project, but that could change if the right conditions are met.
He was cautious with his words on Wednesday saying "Kinder Morgan is a divisive issue" and 'my responsibility is to stand up for the people of British Columbia'.
What is even more telling about the impact Kinder Morgan may have on Horgan's election hopes is his reluctance to make the pipeline the main issue for his 2017 election bid.
When asked directly about fears of losing votes to the Green Party if he didn't take a hard-line stance, he focused on the NDP's need to offer broad appeal.
"It will be an election issue. But there are many, many other issues that will be critically important'" said Horgan. "We want to talk about a wide range of issues and so do British Columbians."
It's good being Green
But as the Liberals and NDP grapple with the Kinder Morgan challenges, Green Party Leader Andrew Weaver's stance is clear.
No matter what, he is against the pipeline.
He doesn't buy the possible benefits and doesn't see how British Columbia can meet its climate targets by supporting major non-renewable energy projects.
Norman Spector went so far as to say this is an issue that gives Weaver extra credibility with environmentally-cautious voters who have typically voted with the NDP.
"Weaver is a climate scientist, while Horgan is a politician," said Spector.
All of this sets up well for Clark.
If, as expected, the federal government comes to the table with more for B.C. to meet its five conditions, she will then have the ability to tell voters she stuck with her conditions, watched out for the environment and also supported a pipeline.
An impressive political trifecta that, if she's able to pull it off, could serve her well with the voters.