Don't bet on a white Christmas in B.C. unless snow is already on the ground: meteorologist

A meteorologist says most parts of B.C. will not have a white Christmas, unless snow is already on the ground.

Warmer temperatures in many parts of the province are a stark contrast to a year ago, when South Coast residents were asked to stay home because of snow accumulation and others in B.C. endured frigid temperatures.

"Unfortunately, for many places across the province, it's unlikely to be a white Christmas this year," said Alyssa Charbonneau, a meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada.

The warmer weather across B.C. — It was 9 C in Vancouver on Thursday and 6 C in Kelowna — are tied to an El Niño weather pattern, experts say.

It typically sees mild Pacific air move across most of Canada, rather than cold Arctic air, which results in a lack of consistent, severe-cold weather, they say.

"Our current forecasts are indicating that is likely to continue. The long-range trend is for a warmer than normal winter going into the New Year and continuing into early spring," said Charbonneau.

"And that agrees with the fact that we are in an El Niño winter."

Weather watchers such as CBC News science communicator Darius Mahdavi say so far this fall, temperatures across B.C. have fluctuated at times between 5-10 C above seasonal.

WATCH | Only slushy skiing on offer at North Shore mountains so far this season:

Skiers react to poor winter conditions on North Shore mountains

12 months ago

Duration 0:30

Local skiers shared their thoughts on the slushy and patchy conditions on Grouse Mountain and at Cypress Mountain, which was closed Tuesday.

Mahdavi said freezing levels remain high for the South Coast — close to 2000 metres, which is much higher than the slopes along Metro Vancouver's popular North Shore winter sports locations.

The lack of snow so far this year has stymied local ski hills, which have been able to open but not been able to offer much terrain due to a lack of snow.

Any temperature drops over the next week will be accompanied by dry conditions, Charbonneau said.

"For communities further north, northern and central B.C., where there already may be some snow in place, you could perhaps see ... white conditions for Christmas. But I would say for a lot of the southern parts of British Columbia we do see rain in the forecast for the next couple of days."

What a difference a year makes

A year ago, heavy snowfall and cold temperatures created great ski and snowboarding conditions, but also choked transit and caused many cancelled flights.

WATCH | Snow blankets Vancouver in December 2022:

A sky-high view of the snow blanketing Vancouver

2 years ago

Duration 2:02

Take an aerial tour of the Granville Street Bridge and surrounding area as Vancouver deals with heavy snowfall.

Some areas of the South Coast got up to 30 centimetres of snow, while central and northern B.C. experienced temperatures as low as –40 C.

Charbonneau said while that type of weather is not expected anytime soon in B.C., there is always a chance of a temperature drop and a powerful snowstorm to cover local mountains.

"That is the way that it works when we're talking about a normal-than-warmer winter — averaging over several months," she said. "That's averaging out the finer details of each storm and that's what's going to be important for how the snowpack develops, how the conditions are going forward."