COVID-19 variants could soon dominate in B.C., health experts warn

Health experts are sounding the alarm over the steady increase of COVID-19 variants, concerned they could soon make up the majority of new infections in the province.

As of Wednesday, 1,397 cases of the variant B117 first found in the United Kingdom have been reported in B.C. The mounting numbers continue to weigh on epidemiologists and health officials as mass vaccination efforts expand.

Meanwhile, cases of the COVID-19 variant first detected in Brazil have more than doubled in B.C. in just four days.

The variant was first reported in B.C. on March 19. As of Wednesday, there were 140 cases confirmed in the province.

The P1 variant is now the dominant strain in Brazil, where nearly 300,000 people have died.

Caroline Colijn, a COVID-19 modeller at Simon Fraser University, says it's only a matter of time before they become the predominant strains in B.C. Variants already account for the majority of new cases in Ontario and Saskatchewan, while leaders in Quebec are bracing for a similar trajectory.

"I think it would be surprising if they didn't become predominant here in the coming weeks," said Colijn. "It's too bad that we didn't stop them from arriving here, and given that they arrived here, it's too bad that we didn't jump on top of it and stop them from establishing here."

P1 concerns mounting

Colijn says the variant, which was first identified in the U.K., is the biggest concern among the three mutated strains detected in B.C., given the sheer number of cases and evidence of both higher transmission rates and severity.

Research suggests that it is about 40 to 70 per cent more transmissible than previous dominant variants that were circulating.

At a media briefing on Tuesday, Canada's Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam said stronger evidence coming from the United Kingdom shows that the new strain can cause more severe illness in both the elderly and in younger age groups.

Colijn says given that jurisdictions haven't been able to contain B117, other variants could follow a similar trajectory. The P1 variant which has ravaged Brazil, for example, is said to be three times more contagious than the original strain, and there have been documented cases of reinfection.

"We clearly have an environment where we're not on top of COVID," said Colijn. "Getting on top of 100 different cases and making sure nobody spreads beyond that is much harder than when it's 10 or one or two."

Easing restrictions

As of March 24, B.C. has administered 582,634 doses of approved COVID-19 vaccines while accelerating the timing for its age-based program. Restrictions on social gatherings have been eased to allow groups of up to 10 people outdoors.

Dr. Brian Conway, the medical director of the Vancouver Infectious Diseases Centre, says that while he's concerned about variants overtaking the disease network, it might actually be time to loosen restrictions.

"We have identified certain types of behaviours, especially those that are conducted outdoors that carry little or no risk, and in doing so, this might enhance people's desires to follow the rules," Conway told CBC News.

Conway says allowing for slightly larger gatherings outdoors doesn't seem out of the question, as long as the numbers continue to show little risk.

"We should have the courage of our convictions. These are safe behaviours."