How safe is B.C.'s safe federal Green Party seat?

The Green Party of Canada's flagship federal seat, occupied by an award-winning B.C. parliamentarian, could be in danger of being trumped by the tariff and sovereignty issue in the current federal election.

Talking to voters on the streets in the riding of Saanich-Gulf Islands — one defined by its natural oceanside beauty and environmentally conscious voters, many of whom are retirees— doubts are surfacing about whether current Green MP Elizabeth May will win again.

"It won't be Green, it won't be NDP," said one Saanich resident to CBC News. "There's a little bit of Conservative here," said another.

WATCH | Saanich-Gulf Islands voters mull candidates amid tariff, sovereignty threat:

What voters in Saanich-Gulf Islands are saying about Greens' chances

17 days ago

Duration 0:47

Elizabeth May has been the MP in Saanich-Gulf Islands since 2011 and is seeking re-election in 2025, standing on her record as a community-involved parliamentarian and advocate for the environment.

The uncertainty is a result of this election having one over-reaching issue so far. Who between the Liberals and Conservatives can form government and best react to the economic and sovereignty threat posed to Canada from U.S. President Donald Trump?

• Compare the election promises of Canada's major parties

According to some campaigners, that clouds Elizabeth May's candidacy as she has repeatedly run, and won, on a promise of being a locally engaged parliamentarian and an advocate for environmentalism and solutions to climate change.

Will even the most hardcore Green voters in the Saanich-Gulf Islands riding vote to ensure one party or the other forms a majority?

"Strategic voting … can kill us," said David Merner, who lives in Sooke B.C., on Vancouver Island and was a 2015 Liberal candidate and then ran for the Greens in 2019.

"I think Elizabeth May is going to face a real challenge," he said. "I think she'll win, but she's in for a real battle."

Challenging May is the Liberal's David Beckham, an expert in environmental remediation and renewable energy, the Conservative's Cathie Ounsted, a former councillor and chairperson of the Victoria Airport Authority Board of Directors and the NDP's Colin Plant, who's been a teacher in the Saanich School District for 25 years.

How tight is the race?

Some polling aggregators show May currently running third behind the Conservatives' Ounsted and the Liberals' Beckham, but May's campaign says information from sites like 338canada can be misleading because they look at the past election results, what is trending nationally, not happening locally and then provide an aggregated projection.

"I don't put a lot of confidence in polls," May told CBC News recently while campaigning in Saanich.

"When I was elected here in 2011, there wasn't a single poll that thought I had a chance, so I relied more on what I heard on the street when I'm going door to door."

WATCH | What are Elizabeth May's chances of capturing a fifth term?:

Politics trumps environmental concerns in Saanich-Gulf Islands ahead of federal election

19 days ago

Duration 1:36

In the riding of Saanich-Gulf Islands, held by the federal Green Party for more than a decade, the environment is taking a back seat this election. Renee Lukacs takes a look at which way voters are leaning and what the party is up against.

May has carved out a unique position for herself and her party in the House of Commons, working across party lines and framing herself as a powerful voice holding governments to account.

"In this riding, having Elizabeth's voice in Parliament is far more powerful than having another party's candidate who is automatically told to toe the party line," read a recent communiqué from her campaign. "They are not an independent voice that can represent your concerns."

The Greens say polling it commissioned has May with 41 per cent of decided voters ahead of Ounsted with 28 per cent and Beckham with 22 per cent.

CBC News' poll tracker is currently projecting the Greens to win a seat in British Columbia and in Ontario, where it also currently holds a seat.

• CBC News breaks down where the polls stand.

People who live and work and vote in the riding say May has been a strong advocate for Saanich and the Gulf Islands, where there are several local issues that have federal jurisdiction, such as the anchoring of shipping vessels, the health and well-being of killer whales in the area, and land acquisition for preservation.

'Popular candidate'

"The environment is still huge, " said Terry Shepherd about the priorities of local voters for this election.

Shepherd, who lives on Pender Island, is currently the chair of the Southern Gulf Islands Neighbourhood House and has committed her time to many social service agencies and community groups.

"May is a really popular candidate," said Shepherd. "I think most people that I've talked to still want the Green Party to be elected. We do see a few more Conservative signs around the island."

Both Shepherd and Jennifer Lannan-Emekoba, who owns Osisi Boutique on Saltspring Island, said they both have received personal help from May over immigration issues — a testament to how engaged locally May is with her constituents.

"I think we need to remember all that she's done in the past," Lannan-Emekoba said. "As constituents, we need to ask ourselves if any of the other candidates are going to go to work as hard as she clearly does."

Other candidates will have their chance to convince voters like Lannan-Emekoba of that at an upcoming all-candidates meeting on April 19 in Saanich.