Low snowpack, early snowmelt, warm weather in forecast point to higher B.C. drought risk, says forecaster

The B.C. River Forecast Centre says a combination of a low snowpack, early snowmelt and forecasts of warm weather are pointing toward elevated drought hazards in the province.

The province's snowpack sits at 71 per cent of normal levels as of May 1, the centre wrote in its latest monthly report, down from 79 per cent on April 1.

The centre notes levels were "extremely low" last May, with the average across B.C. at 66 per cent of normal.

Snowmelt is happening earlier than usual, the reports says, with 15 per cent of the peak total snowpack at automated stations melting by May 1. In a typical year, five per cent of the snowpack has melted by early May. 

Jonathan Boyd, a hydrologist for the river forecast centre, says there are drought concerns due in part to long-term precipitation deficits that date back to 2022. He says spring weather will be a factor in summer drought conditions.

"April wasn't great, but more important is what happens in May and June, and it's still a little bit too early to know for sure," he said, adding that seasonal forecasts from Environment Canada indicate warmer-than-normal temperatures from May to July. 

The snowpack in most regions of B.C. ranges from 60 to 80 per cent of normal, the report says, while a snowpack below 60 per cent was measured for the Upper Fraser West, Lower Thompson, Nicola, Bridge, Skagit, Central Coast, Similkameen, and Skeena-Nass regions.

The report noted that temperatures in B.C. ranged from 0.5 C to 2.5 C warmer than usual last month, while precipitation was below normal or slightly below normal.

The centre says there isn't an elevated risk of floods given current snowpack levels, but higher flows are possible if there is heavy spring rainfall.

The B.C. Wildfire Service's summer forecast expects higher than usual temperatures into spring, with the possibility of above-average precipitation over coastal and central B.C.

The service said precipitation in May and June, typically the rainiest months in B.C.'s Interior, "will influence the length and intensity of the core wildfire season."

Boyd said that while there are concerns about the amount of snowmelt, it's still early in the season, and conditions can change. 

"It's still a long way to go," he said. "There are still the spring and summer weather conditions, and we can have bouncebacks, particularly if we have a couple of weeks of ... unsettled weather where we have several storms come in."