Seniors' advocate says B.C. will need almost 16,000 new long-term care beds by 2036

British Columbia will need almost 16,000 new long-term care beds by 2036 with an estimated price of $16 billion in capital costs to meet the demands of an aging society, the province's seniors' advocate says. 

Dan Levitt's report tabled at the provincial legislature pegs the current number of publicly subsidized long-term care beds at 29,595, more than 2,000 beds short of what is needed according to government's own forecast. 

But the report predicts the gap will "grow exponentially" over the next decade to a 16,858 bed shortfall by 2036. 

"So here is the story, we have to build 50 per cent more long-term care beds than exist today to meet the demand," Levitt said. 

If the province doesn't act, the number of available beds per 1,000 seniors will drop from 58 today to 41 beds by 2036, he said. 

$16B price tag

Levitt said the current estimated capital cost of a single long-term care bed is $1 million. The figure would put the current capitol costs price tag for the additional beds at $16 billion over ten years, while operational costs would be about $100,000 per bed.

Levitt said the capital costs of long-term care are "increasing dramatically." 

But government finds money for other things in the budget, he said. 

"Seniors who require long-term care … deserve to have those beds available to them when they need them," he said. 

Levitt said the shortage of long-term care beds also costs the overall economy by reducing productivity and raising personal costs. 

"So, if you are caring for your aging parents, you are going to miss work, you are no longer going to be able to work at a full-time job, which is going to impact our economy, and our productivity as a province, and it's going to put financial stress on families," he said. 

Instead of building long-term care, government is "shifting that financial stress to families," Levitt said. 

The shortage of long-term care beds is going to put more pressure on the health-care system at large, he said. 

"Once a senior goes into emergency, they will be occupying a hospital bed, which means that surgeries and other appointments that will be booked in acute care will be less available," he said. 

Fewer long-term care beds also puts pressure on other parts of the health system, including paramedics transporting seniors to hospitals and family physicians needing to spend more time with seniors, he added.

"If we don't invest in long-term care, we will repeat the same kind of crisis that we saw with family doctors shortages, and with the housing crisis," he said. 

Average wait time hits 290 days 

The growing shortage of long-term care beds comes with longer waiting lists and wait-times for existing ones. 

The report says the number of people waiting for long-term care beds has risen from 2,381 in 2016 to 7,212 this year, an increase of 200 per cent.    

The average wait time for a bed had almost doubled to 290 days by 2024, according to the report, which predicts those delays will become "untenable" based on current government plans. 

While the government says it will add almost 3,000 new beds by 2030, the report says the current system, which "relies heavily on overburdened family caregivers," is "unsustainable and requires immediate attention." 

Levitt said government needs to extend its plan beyond 2030, to 2036, to increase capacity, meet growing demand and reduce wait times. 

Other recommendations in the report call on government to expand access to a broader range of publicly-subsidized housing options for seniors, review wait-list management and develop wait-time targets.

Levitt has also called on government to develop a detailed action plan by Oct. 1, the International Day of Older Persons.

Conservative MLA Brennan Day said in a news release that Levitt's report shows a "full-blown system breakdown driven by government neglect.

Day, who is the critic for seniors' health, said the NDP government has over-promised and under-delivered. 

"Seniors aren't getting the support they need at home, so they [end] up in the emergency rooms instead, and our hospitals are buckling under the pressure," Day said. 

Premier says shortage is 'a priority'

At an unrelated news conference in Kitimaat Village, B.C., Premier David Eby said he welcomed the recommendations in the report, calling them "crucially important," and said the province would work with the advocate to ensure "we deliver" on the needs identified from the front lines.

"This is a challenge that people have seen coming for a while," Eby said. "We have an aging population in Canada, and in British Columbia, in particular, that will need long-term care support." 

Eby blamed the actions of previous B.C. Liberal governments for the current situation. 

"From 2007 to 2017, there were almost no long-term beds built in this province, which is a shocking thing," he said. "Since forming government, we have either replaced or added more than 5,500 long-term care beds. We have to add a lot more."

Eby said the ministry of infrastructure is reviewing ways to deliver long-term care beds more efficiently given the "huge demand" from the public. 

"We have to build faster, we have to build more, we have to build it more affordably to meet the demand that is out there." 

He cited unaffordable rental housing as one of the major challenges facing the province and said his government was working to bring costs down across the board.

"We share those concerns of the seniors' advocate and they're a priority for our government," Eby said.