Trump's pipeline politics could prompt major backlash, says expert

A University of British Columbia professor is warning that U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to put a pair of major pipeline projects back on track will draw a volatile backlash. 

On Tuesday, Trump signed executive orders to advance the controversial Keystone XL pipeline project and the Dakota Access Pipeline.

Former U.S. President Barack Obama blocked the Keystone XL pipeline — which would carry bitumen from Alberta to Nebraska where it would be sent to Gulf Coast refineries — in 2015. The Dakota Access pipeline — which would move oil from northwest North Dakota and terminate in Illinois — has been the subject of long-standing protests.

George Hoberg, professor at the Liu Institute for Global Studies at the University of British Columbia, has extensively researched pipeline controversies. He spoke with CBC The Early Edition's Rick Cluff about what Trump's pipeline politics could mean for B.C.'s industry, the environmental movement, and protesters.

Why did Trump revive the pipeline projects?

Keystone XL has become a huge symbol about the relationship between the environment and the economy in U.S. politics and Canadian politics. What Trump is doing is trying to send a signal to the investors and the political community that he's serious about reducing the regulatory burden and pushing forward infrastructure projects and opening up new sources of oil and natural gas.

How will this affect Kinder Morgan's Trans Mountain pipeline project?

Kinder Morgan will continue to argue it's necessary, but I think if Keystone XL moves forward the business case for Kinder Morgan is a bit weaker. It really depends on what people's expectations are for future oil prices.     

How does this fit in with Canada's new framework on climate change?

They're much more difficult to achieve. What [these pipelines] do is put much greater pressure on other sectors in other provinces around Canada to meet those reductions. It's a puzzling thing for many of us ... how politicians can claim to be pursuing ambitious targets while significantly increasing greenhouse gas emissions.

What are we going to see in terms of protest in the coming months?

If construction starts on either of these again, I can assure you there will be significant on-the-ground resistance. Arguably, that resistance may even be bigger. As we saw with the Women's March on Saturday, there's a huge backlash pent-up that wants to express itself against the Trump administration.

What I'm concerned about the most is how Trump and other government officials will respond to these protests. I'm concerned that in order to show he's open for business and the tough man that he is, Trump will overreact to this. There will be more violence than there otherwise has to be. That's very disconcerting.

Could grassroots opposition be successful in this new political climate?

It can, if they have a political leverage point. Where I think we should be looking is the state of Nebraska where they haven't got final approval. They are very concerned about their water resources and there's a lot of issues with farmers and Native Americans there as well.

Could these movements embolden Canadian environmentalists?

Yes, I think it will. There's a very strong network of Indigenous activists and environmental activists around North America. It's not just British Columbians who are protesting against the Kinder Morgan pipeline. We'll also see lots of people from elsewhere in the same way that when Standing Rock occurred, that actually attracted a lot of people from across the United States and Canada as well.

This interview has been condensed and edited for length and clarity.

To listen to the interview, click on the link labelled Environmental policy analyst George Hoberg on Trump's pipeline politics