Why Vancouver Island is shaping up to be a hot spot for strategic voting

A growing number of left-leaning voters across B.C. are thinking of voting strategically as polls show the province has some of the tightest races in the country.

J.B. Burrows, founder and managing director of SmartVoting.ca, a site that helps voters choose left-leaning candidates in their riding that it believes are most likely to win, says Vancouver Island, in particular, is an anomaly across Canada.

"There's no other place in this country where the parties that are not Conservative are so competitive with each other," Burrows told CBC News. 

The seven ridings on Vancouver Island have traditionally swung back and forth from the Conservatives to the NDP. The Green Party is also a strong contender in the region, with co-leader Elizabeth May holding one of the party's two seats. 

There hasn't been a Liberal MP on the island since 2011. But pollsters say that could change with this election as Carney and the Liberals gain support.

Meanwhile, adding another left-of-centre party to the mix of viable candidates is presenting a difficult choice for some voters. 

"The island is still incredibly split," Burrows said.

The Trump factor

Pollster Mario Canseco, president of Research Co, says strategic voting and concerns about vote-splitting aren't new or partisan issues.

Canseco says Conservative voters have been similarly worried in past elections when the right-leaning Reform Party and People's Party of Canada have had stronger support. 

What's different this time, he says, is how early in the campaign talk of strategic voting has started. 

"It's happening earlier because of the influence of Donald Trump," he told CBC News. "What is happening is a heightened level of concern about who forms the government."

Canseco says nearly a third of Canadians say that Canada-U.S. relations is the top issue for them, and it's pushing other issues like housing, the economy and the environment to the back.

But Canseco warns against basing decisions on data that shows riding-level projections, which he says are often based on national numbers and don't usually take the influence of a specific candidate into account.

Conservative support farther north

Despite concerns among some left-wing voters, the Conservatives have a lot of support in some Vancouver Island ridings.

In the North Island-Powell River riding, Conservative candidate Aaron Gunn has faced calls for his resignation and a petition for his removal. 

Gunn is also facing a social media campaign from left-wing voters to not split the vote, specifically in his riding. 

But Gunn has also received a lot of support, including from local elected officials.

WATCH | Controversy over Gunn's social media posts: 

Conservative candidate Aaron Gunn under fire over residential school comments

7 days ago

Duration 2:59

WARNING: This story contains details of experiences at residential schools. The past tweets of the Conservative candidate in the North Island—Powell River riding have been making headlines for days. Aaron Gunn has been under fire for tweets about Canada’s residential school system, in which he said that the system did not constitute genocide. CBC’s Claire Palmer made the journey to the riding and talked to those defending Gunn, and others who say he's got to go.

Should one choose to ignore Canseco's advice and believe riding-level polls, Gunn is far ahead of his rivals.

Polls for Courtenay-Alberni Conservative candidate Kris McNichol also show him with a substantial lead.

The riding's Green Party candidate, Chris Markevic, says despite being approached by "several people" asking him to drop out and endorse incumbent NDP candidate Gord Johns in order to avoid vote splitting, he's choosing to stay put. 

"The NDP are 100 per cent responsible for the mess they have made. As a former member myself, I cannot count how many times we told them to stop pretending to be the Liberals," Markevich posted on X, formerly Twitter.

"Their party has lost its identity in the Canadian political landscape, and that is not the fault of the Greens."

The freedom to vote

Farther south on the island, John Wilson, CEO of Wilson's Transportation and a former B.C. Conservative candidate in the Esquimalt-Colwood riding says strategic voting isn't new.

"It's a strategy, all right," Wilson said. "We should all have the freedom to vote for the person or the party that we see fit."

Wilson's riding, Saanich-Gulf Islands, is one of the tightest races on Vancouver Island. 

SmartVoting.ca shows a nearly three-way split between Green Party Leader Elizabeth May, Conservative candidate Cathy Ounsted and Liberal candidate David Beckham. 

"I just stress for people to vote for who they think is best suited for their riding and best suited to represent our country," he said.