A vote of no-confidence ... in the future? How Albertans' pessimism may shape the election

As Albertans ponder their votes in the upcoming provincial election, they don't hold a lot of hope for the future.

That, at least, is according to the weighted results of roughly 10,000 people who responded to Vote Compass, an online tool developed by a team of political scientists that aims to help users navigate the political landscape.

The voters who have used the tool so far have expressed a deep pessimism about the state of affairs in Alberta, with only 16 per cent saying the province is headed in the right direction.

That compares to 60 per cent who say the province is headed in the wrong direction.

Looking further into the future, Albertans also worry that the youth of today won't fare as well when they become the adults of tomorrow.

Only 11 per cent felt young Albertans will be better off than their parents, while 76 per cent believed they will be worse off.

All this may seem like bad news for the UCP — on the surface, at least.

Conventional wisdom has it that incumbent governments fare poorly when the electorate is pessimistic. But Alberta is anything but a conventional political environment. And 2023 is anything but a typical year.

One thing is certain: politicians are well aware that voters are worried. We'll get to the political implications of all this data in a moment. But the numbers tell only part of the story.

Let's first hear what some real people are saying about this particular moment in history, and how it's affecting their lives.

What people are saying

Like many Albertans, Abby Stahl is struggling with the present and worries about what's to come.

"I want my kids to have a future," she told CBC News in an interview outside a truck stop in Calgary.

Stahl says providing the basic necessities for her family has become more and more of a struggle.

"What I spend for food and groceries … and for my gas, it's $1,000 more a month than it was before," she said.

"So basically I work harder now. I do other things to help alleviate some of that misery."

Samantha Amundarain is a student at the University of Calgary who says she's racking up more debt than she initially planned to when she began her studies.

Between tuition hikes, the cost of housing and the price of food, she says her student debt keeps ballooning beyond what she had budgeted.

"It's kind of becoming more of a worry as I get closer to graduation, but it's sort of on the backburner right now," she said, as she's too busy with her coursework to spend much time fretting about future problems.

Still, it lingers in the back of her mind. And the kind of life she will have once she graduates is a top issue for her in the election. 

"It'd be great to see our future political leaders investing in the future of the province," she said.

Ron Clark is a senior citizen who has been through a cancer diagnosis and worries about the trajectory of health care in the province.

"I don't think the government, to be honest with you, really has a clue what's going on in the health-care system," he said.

Clark says he has personally experienced unreasonable wait times for medical procedures and so have his friends and loved ones.

"If you need help," he said, "it should be available."

Given this mood among Albertans, the politicians courting their votes have a tricky task.

"In the face of a pessimistic electorate, what you want to do is to try to offer some kind of hope — some kind of credible hope," said Lisa Young, who teaches political science at the University of Calgary.

"I think we've got both the parties trying to do that in different ways. But it's more challenging than running on a positive, hopeful platform in the face of booming economic times."

Election implications 

Young wasn't surprised by the Vote Compass results showing such pessimism among Albertans.

She cautions that Vote Compass is not based on a random sample and thus can't be directly interpreted as a representation of what everyone in the province is necessarily feeling. But, she says, the results are consistent with recent public-opinion polling.

She says there's a clear undercurrent of pessimism in this election, as Albertans know "the province is facing some pretty significant headwinds."

"I think this is in part a function of understanding that there's likely a significant transition occurring in the economy that will have generational impact," she said.

There seems to be broad agreement on the generational aspect, at least. Regardless of which party they intend to vote for, a majority of Vote Compass respondents said they expect the next generation to be worse off.

Young notes this sentiment has been seen in national polling data as well, as concerns over housing costs and wage stagnation are at play across the country.

When it comes to whether Alberta, specifically, is on the right or wrong track, however, people tend to see things through more of a partisan lens.

Those who intend to vote for the UCP were the most optimistic, in relative terms, with 54 per cent saying the province is moving in the right direction.

NDP supporters were the least optimistic, by contrast, with just two per cent saying the province is moving in the right direction.

How parties respond

Young says an incumbent government wouldn't typically want to face a pessimistic electorate, but Alberta's political landscape is not all doom and gloom for Danielle Smith and the UCP.

"I think what we've seen the UCP do — and it's probably the most effective strategy that they can use — is to try to change the channel," Young said.

On Day 1 of the campaign, Smith came out with a major announcement: an income-tax cut. Her proposal would see provincial taxes on income below $60,000 reduced to eight per cent, down from the current 10 per cent rate.

In announcing the plan, the UCP leader sought directly to ease anxieties about the future.

"It will result in real and significant savings that can be put toward housing, life's other necessities, planning for the future or whatever else is a priority for you," Smith said.

Young said the Alberta NDP have also been trying to respond to voters' pessimism with a promise that things will get better, but in a different way.

"One of the things that we've seen is an effort to portray the leader, in particular, as being upbeat and hopeful," she said.

"There have been a lot of very positive, energetic visuals. And so I think that's an attempt to offer that beacon of hope, in sort of symbolic terms."

Indeed, that's how NDP Leader Rachel Notley kicked off her campaign in Calgary — mentioning the word "future" at least 10 times in her speech to supporters.

"Looking around this room today, I have never felt more optimistic for the future of Alberta," Notley said.

"For me, that future starts with better health care," she added.

Policy-wise, Young noted, the NDP has also emphasized health care, with a reiterated promise on Day 2 of the campaign to ensure every Albertan has access to a family doctor as well as other health professionals.

Recent polling of Calgary voters, in particular, found health care to be their No. 1 issue, but inflation and the economy were close behind.

Given how close the election is expected to be, and the high likelihood that the outcome will be decided in Calgary, we can expect to see the parties continue to campaign on these themes in the coming days and weeks, with competing messages of how to make things better in the future.

As pessimism abounds, the key ballot question may well become: Who has the most convincing vision for turning things around?

How the Vote Compass data is gathered and interpreted:

Developed by a team of social and statistical scientists from Vox Pop Labs, Vote Compass is a civic engagement application offered in Alberta exclusively by CBC Radio-Canada. The findings in this story are based on 9,888 respondents who participated in Vote Compass from April 30 to May 2, 2023.

Unlike online opinion polls, respondents to Vote Compass are not pre-selected. Similar to opinion polls, however, the data is a non-random sample from the population and has been weighted in order to approximate a representative sample.

Vote Compass data has been weighted by gender, age, education, region and partisanship to ensure the sample's composition reflects that of the actual population of Alberta according to census data and other population estimates.