Experts warn snowpack lower than last year in parts of Alberta
Farmers concerned about 'precarious situation' as another drought year looms
For Stephen Vandervalk, monitoring snowpack in the mountains is an important way to gauge how his farm operation near Fort Macleod, Alta., might fare the rest of the year.
He watches reports from Castle Mountain Resort to see how much snow has accumulated on the mountain. The snowpack there is about 25 to 30 per cent down from the usual average for the first week of March, according to the resort.
"That's one of the main feeding sources for our dam [which irrigates the crops], and yeah, it's significantly down," he said. "It's not looking very promising."
The province's early data shows lower than normal snowpack levels in the Eastern Slopes.
Tricia Stadnyk, Canada Research Chair in Hydrologic Modelling and professor at the University of Calgary's Schulich School of Engineering, said numerous regions are seeing lower snowpack levels than this time last year.
While the province's drought map indicates most regions are experiencing Stage 1 drought conditions, Stadnyk said she believes the current data on snowpack levels point to worse drought conditions that should be a cause for concern
"People last year at this time were very concerned about drought. We were going into unprecedented negotiations around water," she said. "[We were] at Stage 4 drought scenario with the province and this year we're not. But we're actually lower in snowpack [in certain regions] than we were at this time last year."
Stage 1 drought conditions mean "monitor and observe," while Stage 4 indicates "significant drought conditions in multiple water management areas."
John Pomeroy, the Canada Research Chair in Water Resources and Climate Change, said the mountain snowpack is "short hundreds of millimetres of water" from where it's expected to be this time of year.
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"It's not impossible that we're heading into one of the worst mountain droughts of this century," said the professor from the University of Saskatchewan.
"We were very prepared for a drought in stream flows last year and we haven't had those discussions this year, and this year is looking far worse than last year."
According to the Alberta Rivers website, 33 water basins are currently flagged with water shortage advisories.
Ryan Fournier, press secretary to the Minister of Environment and Protected Areas, told CBC News in an emailed statement that it's still early in the year with more precipitation to come. He added there are also positive signs in other areas of the province.
"For example, the southern plains area stretching from Lethbridge to the Cypress Hills has received more precipitation than normal, with some areas in southeastern Alberta seeing precipitation amounts well above normal," he said.
But Pomeroy warned that even with precipitation, the existing water shortage is a large one to catch up to and would require big storms in the mountains.
Southern Alberta at higher risk
In its most recent Water Supply Outlook, Alberta Environment and Protected Areas stated that snow accumulation measured "much below average" in the Oldman, Bow, Athabasca and North Saskatchewan river basins as of Feb. 1.
The province's recent above average temperatures have meant losing a large part of the snowpack, Stadnyk explained.
Although the snow season isn't over, she said, the snow pillow levels (how much water would result if the snowpack were to melt) are particularly concerning for southern Alberta. Stadnyk said what she really wants to see is not just snowfall, but snow accumulation.
"If we continue to have warmer than average temperatures and a little bit of snowfall, we won't make a significant difference in terms of our overall water supply," Stadnyk said. "That is definitely going to have a lasting impact on our reservoir levels, our stream levels."
"It will put a lot of pressure on industry, water uses and water licences again."
Vandervalk said his farm felt the pressure of water restrictions last year, when he was limited to consuming less than half his typical water usage.
"It's pretty hard to grow crops with half the water, our irrigation crops. And then when … your dry land is also dry, it's kind of a double whammy. So it's very concerning, for sure."
Farmers concerned about another drought year
Further north, near Peace River, Alta., grain farmer Christi Friesen said the mixed bag of weather is making for an unusual year.
"We have full on ditches running up here," she said, "For it to be March 4th and we're seeing ditches run, we're seeing … stubble in the field, you know, that is a little bit concerning."
The runoff is likely caused by frost underground that hasn't thawed, preventing the water from being absorbed into the soil, she explained.
"I know for us up in the Peace, we've actually had a bit of a weird year. We've received a lot more freezing rain than normal," she said. "It's not even little amounts of freezing rain. We've received inches of freezing rain in the middle of winter and then had the warm-up. And we don't know, is [the water] going into the ground? Where is it going?"
Environment Canada forecasts above normal precipitation for most of the province and normal levels for the Rocky Mountains and far northern region through April.
"The biggest difference between this year and last year is we did have some rain this fall. But that little bit of rain was acting to refill a very dry situation where we'd really been drying out a sponge for two years," Stadnyk said.
"So now, coupled with the lack of snowpack for another year in a row, this is a much more precarious situation."
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With files from Brendan Coulter