Orange is the new blue: How progressive conservatives could help the NDP win power

Alberta's New Democrats unveiled a new logo at their convention this weekend. 

It's a shield housing two stripes of orange, representing the prairie fields, two white mountains, and a light blue stripe of sky. 

The colour palette could be an unintentional representation of the mix of the voters — a lot of NDP orange, a little bit of conservative blue — who may pave the NDP's path to victory in next year's provincial election.

Part of the blueprint to get Rachel Notley back into the premier's office is to woo progressive conservative voters into leaning a little left. 

How? The convention offers some clues: Upping the emphasis on the economy and honing in on voters in Calgary. 

Ironically, the people who could help push the NDP to the 45 of 87 needed seats (44, plus a speaker) may actually be conservatives. But it's not a strategy without hurdles. 

Dipping toes in orange waters

Orange and blue signs rippled in the crowd as Notley proclaimed "We've got politically active Albertans joining us today from other progressive traditions" in her speech to just under 1,400 party members.

The NDP is betting there are some "light blue" conservatives who feel politically homeless.

Polling from Janet Brown Opinion Research from the summer shows that on a scale of 0 (strongly left) and 10 (strongly right), 31 per cent of respondents identified as a five — dead in the political centre. 

The work is to convince those people to "dip their toes in the NDP waters," said Cheryl Oates, who worked in Notley's premier's office and is back to help with the  campaign. 

Lou Arab, who is organizing the party's ground game and is also Notley's partner, said they've seen a 332-per-cent increase in identified voters open to voting NDP since the 2019 election. He also said in the 24 hours following Danielle Smith's election as UCP leader, his party raised $100,000.

Monday will also mark the launch of a new NDP advertising push, in part targeting traditionally conservative voters who don't identify with the path the UCP is travelling under its new leader. 

The rival parties are pushing similar priorities, as Smith's speech during the UCP convention (also Saturday) spoke to affordability and health care issues as well — albeit, from a different angle. 

It's maybe the one thing the two parties can agree on these days: Votes lie in a strong economic offering. 

Economy, economy, economy

By emphasizing economic issues, the NDP is trying to show swing voters that a progressive party can provide legitimate offerings on topics the conservatives have typically monopolized.

A recent poll from Navigator Ltd. shows Notley is starting to win more confidence from Albertans on the economy.

But building that trust takes time, and Notley was often tied to the 2015-2016 recession Alberta experienced due to crashing oil prices. 

The party has been meeting with business stakeholders and unveiling policy for years, but those proposals have struggled to get oxygen because Alberta's focus is on the governing United Conservatives' actions (and drama). Notley laid out what's been done so far, but says there's more work to be done on economic fronts. 

She's enlisted a prominent financial mind in the province to help, announcing former ATB chief economist Todd Hirsch would be consulting on the NDP's platform. 

Perhaps the most obvious play to conservative voters this weekend was Notley's nod to federal tensions.

"I know that Albertans are sometimes frustrated by our relationship with the federal government and many times I share that frustration," she told supporters. "We have legitimate concerns about specific issues with Ottawa, like the fiscal stabilization formula and Bill C-69."

She quickly added that stoking anger and ignoring solutions is a dead-end path.

Battleground Calgary

Calgary was always a fortress city for the old Tories, and is now the focus city for Notley's party. It's no wonder the NDP held its convention there.

The accepted electoral math in Alberta looks like this: There are three regions (Edmonton, Calgary and rural). You need to win two. 

The UCP will be dominant in rural areas. The NDP is likely to sweep Edmonton. Calgary will be the battleground, and the NDP knows it. 

"While the UCP is kicking Calgarians out, we're happy to welcome you in," Notley told the crowd on Saturday, a nod to comments from Danielle Smith to the Calgary Sun.

The premier told the paper she's not trying to win every vote, and so will focus on winning the 41 seats outside Edmonton and Calgary, only needing a handful in the metropolises to secure a majority. 

There are 26 seats in Calgary. In 2015, the NDP took 15. Today, they hold three.

In the vacant riding of Calgary–Elbow, which the NDP has never won, the party's candidate Samir Kayande is running. His target is the same Progressive Conservative voters who elected former premiers Ralph Klein and Alison Redford to that seat.

"That 'P' is very important," Kayande said. "These are politically homeless people."

The balancing act

Getting those blue voters to pick orange isn't an easy feat.

In 2015, the NDP won the popular vote by 13 percentage points, but the following election a united right trounced them by 22.

Many of those voters were motivated by the thought Notley wasn't worth trusting to steward the economy and energy sector.

It will likely take more than attractive economic messaging to persuade chunks of those voters to give the NDP a second shot in government. 

"We didn't get it all right," Notley admitted on the weekend. "I get that and I take responsibility for that."

There's also the risk of overextending your reach to chase those voters.

Most policy resolutions put forward at the convention were focused on social issues, education, labour and health care (bread-and-butter topics for NDP members).

In a room where the loudest cheers were for mentions of health and public education, Notley will have to balance respecting the core concerns of her membership and delivering messaging to a broader group. 

The outcome at the extreme ends of the political spectrum in Alberta is already clear. Danielle Smith will scoop up the farther right. Rachel Notley will lock up the further left. 

The true Battle of Alberta will be decided by that fluid middle — the light blue.