Alberta sees largest population increase ever: StatsCan data

Alberta's population grew by nearly 60,000 people between July and September of this year — more than in any other year since Statistics Canada began estimating populations in 1951.

StatsCan estimates the population of Alberta as of the start of October to be 4,601,314 people.

That's 58,203 more than three months before.

The 1.28 per cent increase is a proportional growth that rivals some of the biggest growth periods in Alberta history and shows the return of a stronger economy, according to analysts.

"We have recently been seeing increases in inflows towards Alberta, and that was normal during periods of high oil prices. But what makes this pretty unusual is just the sheer magnitude of it," said economist Trevor Tombe with the University of Calgary.

"The scale of it is pretty stark, and a lot of folks coming in from B.C. and Ontario as well, potentially a sign of strengthening economic conditions here relative to elsewhere, and more affordable housing, in particular."

Historically, population increases have been tied to high prices in oil and economic growth, Tombe says, and this boom appears to be no different.

There was also a drop in the number of people leaving Alberta, which tends to be less sensitive to oil prices, but he says the cost of living elsewhere may be playing a role.

"I think it would be fair to say that the Alberta economy has been doing reasonably well for the last couple of years, and that's made it more attractive," said Janet Lane of the Canada West Foundation.

Lane, the director of the foundation's Human Capital Centre, says the job market is the first driver of population changes.

"A very close second recently has been the cost of living in Vancouver and Toronto, the cost of housing for young people. It has absolutely been out of reach to be able to buy a home."

British Columbia and Ontario were the two largest sources of migrants within Canada, with about 11,000 and 12,000 people arriving, respectively, from each.

Overall net interprovincial migration hit a historic high, reaching a level not seen since the early 1980s.

The Atlantic provinces, which also have cheaper costs of living, saw large increases in interprovincial migration as well, which Lane says is a clue that points toward an exodus of bargain-hunting Torontonians and Vancouverites.

One thing that is certain, according to Tombe, is the trend has been building over the past five quarters, since late 2021, after Alberta experienced an early pandemic era net loss to other provinces.

Alberta is Calling

While Alberta led the country in proportional population increases, Ontario by far had the largest increase in sheer numbers.

That province added more than 153,000 net new residents, largely due to international migration, but it lost more people to other provinces than it gained, many of them to Alberta.

Earlier this year, then-premier Jason Kenney headlined a campaign to attract wayward Torontonians to Alberta, especially those who are younger and highly skilled, in order to relieve Alberta's labour shortage.

The words "Alberta is Calling" splattered Toronto subways and streetcars, attracting attention from many run down by the cost of living in Canada's largest city.

"I don't want to say that the, you know, the Alberta is Calling ads may have have worked, because it's too early to say that. But certainly they were sending that message anyway to young people," Lane said.

Whether or not the campaign was a success is not evident in the data, either.

Demographic estimates were not released with the latest quarterly interprovincial numbers, but an earlier release of annual data in September showed close to 10,000 young people moved to Alberta between 2021 and 2022.

The number of people in their 20s moving into Alberta is double those in their 30s and 40s. Those inflows were spread across categories, but young people are coming in large numbers, which is an indicator that affordability may be playing a role, Tombe says.

That news can come with caveats, especially in Calgary, where home and rent prices continue to increase.

"If [people from Vancouver and Toronto] are moving here, they're prepared to pay more for rent because they're used to it. And that's driving up rents here in a big way," Lane said.

Lane said there are also indications people closer to retirement are looking to make use of windfalls they saw from owning property outside of Alberta.

"They're cashing out their more expensive homes in some more expensive areas and perhaps buying in Alberta for their retirement. So that's an interesting trend as well," she said.

Short term, the increase in people puts pressure on supply and demand of housing, according to Tombe.

"Those are important goods that really have a relatively fixed supply in the short run, at least. And so when you have a large increase in the number of people moving in, you see an increase in demand for those properties," he said.