Polling finds public support for reviving pipeline projects, but skepticism surrounds their future

Public opinion for expanding Canada's pipeline capacity seems to be favourable, new polling data suggests, as the threat of U.S. tariffs continues to loom over Canada's oil and gas industry.

The Angus Reid Institute published results from a new survey on Monday showing a majority of respondents supported two previously shelved pipeline projects: Energy East and Northern Gateway. Two thirds of respondents (65 per cent) said they were in favour of reviving Energy East, while a slight majority (54 per cent) supported Northern Gateway.

Research associate Jon Roe said Angus Reid has been examining the ripple effects created by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff threats to understand how Canadians think their governments should respond. 

Oil and gas is one area to monitor as a sector Canadians view as vulnerable because of how closely tied it is to the U.S. market, Roe said.

"I think what we're seeing is this is in response to the Trump tariffs," Roe said.

"People are concerned about what the energy market in Canada looks like if those tariffs go through, and saying 'what can we do to combat this?'"

The survey was conducted Jan. 24-27 among a representative, randomized sample of 2,012 Canadian adults who are members of the online Angus Reid Forum.

Energy East was a pipeline designed to carry oil from Western Canada to Quebec and New Brunswick, but it was cancelled in its planning stages in 2017. Northern Gateway, meanwhile, would have transported oil from Alberta to B.C.'s north coast, but plans for that project were scrapped in 2016.

Angus Reid's results found Energy East support has risen seven percentage points since 2019. It's recorded an even more dramatic rise in Quebec, where the project has long been contentious, polling at 47 per cent now compared to 33 per cent in 2019. However, Quebec still remains the only province where a majority of respondents oppose the project.

Nearly half of respondents (49 per cent) said the federal government isn't doing enough to build pipeline capacity, which is roughly the same percentage as in 2019. Alternatively, 29 per cent said the federal government is taking the right approach, and 22 per cent said they've pushed too hard to build pipeline capacity.

Uncertain business case for new pipelines

The new polling comes as more political leaders, including Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston, have expressed support for revisiting a west-east pipeline project like Energy East.

Richard Masson, an executive fellow with the University of Calgary's School of Public Policy, says there is still a rising global demand for oil, largely due to Asian and African markets, that could justify building new pipelines, even as opinion is divided on when that demand will peak.

"When people talk about peak demand, nobody ever talks about what the slope on the other side looks like," said Masson, who is also the former CEO of the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission. "And most folks don't see it declining dramatically for many years, probably decades."

The only catch is there's no company currently pitching a pipeline like Energy East or Northern Gateway.

Masson doesn't foresee new pipelines being built any time soon. Factors that made Energy East viable, like more confidence in the continued growth of oil production, aren't as certain now. And the obstacles Northern Gateway faced, like a moratorium on oil tankers to B.C.'s north coast and opposition from Indigenous groups, would still need to be addressed.

"Companies like Enbridge are going to be loath to try and advance a pipeline given the experiences that they've had," Masson said.

Enbridge confirmed the company has no plans to revive Northern Gateway.

"Our current effort is focused on leveraging our pipeline in the ground and our existing rights of way. There's lots of capacity there that is efficient and less disruptive to communities and the environment," Enbridge spokesperson Gina Sutherland said.

TransCanada, the company originally behind Energy East, spun off its oil pipeline division last year into the new company South Bow. In January, a South Bow spokesperson said the company is looking at using its existing infrastructure and corridor to increase Canadian crude exports to the United States.

Public opinion still divided

Masson noted federal government intervention similar to its purchase of the Trans Mountain expansion would face a lot of public scrutiny, because of how the cost of that project ballooned to $34 billion.

Angus Reid's data shows public opinion remains divided on the Trans Mountain expansion. Roughly a third of respondents each said they supported the decision, opposed it or were uncertain. But a majority (56 per cent) said they believed it would be viewed as a successful investment with hindsight.

"Maybe further down the line, people will look at it and say … 'maybe it's the right decision,'" Roe said. "But right now, it's interesting how even that split is. People just really aren't sure whether or not it was a good investment."

Pembina Institute director of oil and gas Janetta McKenzie said she hasn't seen a large shift in how the public is thinking about pipeline projects yet, with opinion in Canada largely still divided. She pointed to the even split in Angus Reid's survey on the Trans Mountain expansion as an example of that divide.

But she notes that Trump's tariff threats are making Canadians feel uncertain, and encouraging them to look for ways to bolster Canada's economic resilience.

"We're all very laser-focused on how to enhance Canadian economic resiliency," McKenzie said. 

"There's a lot of things we can do to do that. Pipelines could be one. But there should be some guardrails in place to ensure that, for instance, the public isn't on the hook for that stranded asset. These are long-term pieces of infrastructure, and despite what's happening in the States, the rest of the world continues on with their energy transition plans."

She added that regardless of whether any more pipeline projects are pursued in Canada, the federal government can invest in areas like clean electricity to bolster Canada's economy.