Separatist group releases potential Alberta referendum question

An Alberta separatist group released on Monday a referendum question on independence from Canada that it will petition to get in front of provincial voters — but only once it has garnered support from 600,000 Albertans.

That's more than triple the number of signatures the Alberta Prosperity Project (APP) would need under a new United Conservative Party government bill that makes it much easier to force a referendum on the ballot.

The group also said it would push Premier Danielle Smith to allow a separation referendum later in 2025, instead of next year as she's suggested. They said a critical mass of separatist UCP members can persuade the premier to fast-track the referendum.

At a news conference, APP lawyer Jeffrey Rath pulled a blue provincial flag off an easel to reveal the independence referendum question: "Do you agree that the province shall become a sovereign country and cease to be a province of Canada?"

He touted this ballot question as far clearer than the one Quebec put forth in its 1995 secession referendum.

"This is as serious as a heart attack," Rath said. "And this is what Albertans expect."

Rath and his fellow separatists depicted an independent Alberta with no regulations from Ottawa or eastern Canadian interests, lower provincial taxes plus no federal taxes. 

They suggested oil and gas development would double within five years, multiple new pipelines would extend into the United States, and residents of a breakaway Alberta republic would still keep their Canadian passports and Canada Pension Plan entitlements.

The group said it wouldn't launch a citizens' initiative petition until it had 600,000 registered supporters, instead of the 177,000 soon to be legally required. They said this would bring their movement closer to the much higher number of votes they'd need to win on a secession referendum.

According to an Angus Reid Institute poll released last week, 19 per cent of Albertans would definitely vote to leave Canada, while another 17 per cent say they lean in that direction. More than half of respondents said they would definitely vote to stay in Canada.

Smith declined to discuss APP's strategy when asked about it Monday at an unrelated news conference, insisting it's premature to say what will come out of a petition drive.

"Having people sign up on a website saying that they will ultimately sign a petition is one thing," Smith said. "Getting the physical signatures signed up is another. That's why we have to wait for the process to play out."

The premier reiterated that she supports Alberta staying in Canada.

"It's my job to see if we can get a new deal with Ottawa so that I can convince more Albertans to feel the same," the premier told reporters.

She has made several demands of Prime Minister Mark Carney to give Alberta a better deal in confederation — to drop many federal energy and climate policies, and overhaul the federal transfer system to give more money to her province within the next six months.

On Monday, she announced plans to unilaterally freeze Alberta's industrial carbon tax at this year's level of $100 per tonne, rather than raising it gradually to $170 per tonne by 2030 that Ottawa and the provincial government had long agreed to.

Rath said his separatist movement won't be swayed by "whatever little box of chocolates" Carney brings to the negotiation table.

Interest in Alberta independence appears to have swelled since Carney's Liberals were re-elected to a fourth straight term last month, while voters in the province overwhelmingly chose the Conservatives once again.

Smith has said she understands separatists' mindset after a decade of Liberal climate policies that she argues target Alberta's wealth-producing oil and sector. She's said if separatists force a referendum, she'll schedule it for 2026.

But the APP leaders expressed confidence they can reach 600,000 registered supporters on their website by the end of June — they're at 240,000 now, they say — and want to put their question to voters this October or November. They noted that the Angus Reid poll showed that 65 per cent of UCP supporters would definitely vote to secede, or lean that way.

"Perhaps when Danielle wakes up and realizes that her base is almost unanimous behind the idea of Alberta independence, she might have to get a different idea on the timing," Rath said at his group's update.