Calgary Confederation could be bellwether for Liberal fortunes in 2025 election
The riding has gone Conservative since forming before 2015, but experts are expecting a close race
If the Liberals are going to turn their current lead in the polls into a majority government, ridings like Calgary Confederation are where some experts will be watching closely.
While Alberta typically only has a handful of hotly contested seats each federal election amid a sea of Conservative blue, a handful of seats can suddenly mean a great deal this year.
Pollster Janet Brown told The National last week that the Liberals will likely need to win four or five seats in Alberta if they want to win a majority government, adding that Calgary Confederation is one urban riding to keep an eye on.
"That's almost like a bellwether riding for whether the Liberals are going to win a minority or a majority," Brown said.
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History of sending Tories to Ottawa
Ever since Calgary Confederation was first created ahead of the 2015 federal election, its voters have elected Conservative MP Len Webber to represent them in Parliament.
The urban, densely populated riding stretches from the Bow River in the south to John Laurie Boulevard in the north, and from Sarcee Trail in the west to Deerfoot Trail in the east.
Even prior to Webber's three-term stint as MP, the area has a long history of sending members from the right side of the political spectrum to Ottawa. The riding is largely comprised of what used to be Calgary Centre-North and Calgary West, electoral districts that were often represented by Conservative MPs like Stephen Harper, Jim Prentice and Rob Anders.
But in late March, Webber announced he wouldn't seek re-election this spring. He told The Calgary Eyeopener earlier this month that while he felt he had one more campaign in him, he knew it was time to move on.
LISTEN | Len Webber reflects on retirement
University of Calgary political science professor Melanee Thomas says Webber's departure adds uncertainty to what she previously predicted to be a likely Tory victory. Even after his departure, she argues she'd still predict a Conservative win due to the riding's voting record.
"When anybody wants to say that a Calgary seat is in play, I would want strong local data. I have not seen that," Thomas says.
"It's going to be closer than I think it usually would, but if I was going to bet $10, I would still bet on the Conservative candidate taking it."
Former UCP MLA for Calgary-Klein, Jeremy Nixon, is stepping in to replace Webber. Nixon served one term in the provincial legislature before being unseated by the NDP in 2023.
Given his background in provincial politics, Thomas said it's possible voters' feelings about the UCP provincially could influence their decision on whether to cast a vote for Nixon, especially with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith making headlines throughout this election campaign for her diplomatic efforts in the U.S.
Nixon did not respond to multiple interview requests from CBC News for this story.
Academic influence
One factor that makes Calgary Confederation's voters a more politically engaged group overall is the inclusion of three post-secondary institutions in its boundaries, argues University of Calgary student Ermia Rezaei-Afsah.
Rezaei-Afsah, who lives in the riding and also serves as the U of C's Students' Union president, noted that the youth vote from his school, as well as SAIT and the Alberta University of the Arts, makes affordability an especially important discussion for Calgary Confederation voters. He argues students are already feeling the pinch, and national issues around food security and unemployment can hit students especially hard.
Going forward, Rezaei-Afsah said he's watching to see how local candidates reach out to the university community in his riding.
"I want to know which candidates are going to show up and actually directly engage with students," Rezaei-Afsah said.
"I think students get a bad rap for not voting. But they do, they vote for the people who come and campaign to them directly. In this riding, we have the power to flip the riding into red or blue."
Liberal reshuffle
Rezaei-Afsah noted most of the candidates have a connection already to the U of C, whether as a former student or as a teacher, and that includes the Liberal candidate, Corey Hogan, who works as a vice president for the institution.
Hogan stepped in to run for the Liberals after the party's original candidate in the riding, Thomas Keeper, was dropped in March after failing to disclose a 20-year-old domestic assault charge that was stayed six weeks after it was laid. The switch works in the party's favour, Thomas argues. Just as the Conservatives brought in a candidate with some name recognition already in Calgary, Hogan is more well-known than Keeper due to his role as a political pundit and co-hosting The Strategists podcast.
"I think Hogan is obviously a much better candidate with lots more name recognition, and a significant profile and a decent CV," Thomas said.
After not being involved with the Liberal Party for years, Hogan said he felt increasingly frustrated following news around U.S. President Donald Trump, particularly his rhetoric surrounding tariffs and threats to make Canada the 51st state. So when the party called and asked him to run, he took the opportunity.
"Canada's on the ballot this election, and we've got to decide if we want representation that's going to stand up for a strong Canada or representation that's willing to play footsie with American forces, bring in American-style politics. Everything else kind of comes secondary to that," Hogan said.
"This is about what we can do to protect our country during really tumultuous times, and the kind of leadership we want to lead Canada through really tumultuous times."
Hogan points out that the riding's 2015 Liberal candidate Matt Grant received more votes in that election than any other Liberal in Alberta, coming fewer than 2,000 votes away from taking the seat, and he argues bringing together a progressive vote that's been split between three parties in the past, could flip the riding away from the Conservatives.
A more serious NDP campaign
While the Liberals and Conservatives have only introduced candidates to the riding within the last few weeks, Keira Gunn has developed a strong ground game for the NDP in Calgary Confederation for months.
Gunn says the 2025 election is seeing a more organized and serious push to build NDP support in Alberta, after the party had previously viewed Calgary ridings as too much of a long shot. After Blake Desjarlais won Edmonton Griesbach for the NDP in 2021, Gunn says there's been a push to put more effort and organization into Alberta.
That's reflected in her own campaign efforts. After receiving 18 per cent of the vote in Calgary Forest Lawn in 2021, Gunn says she's doubled her efforts this year, and has met with voters for months to discuss potential solutions to affordability issues that constituents face.
"You need to show to the people of Calgary we're going to do this for real," Gunn said.
"We're not just going to throw in the last-minute candidates for you after the writ's dropped. We're going to bring in people you can build trust with."
The Green Party ran the same candidate in Calgary Confederation for three straight elections in Natalie Odd, but after she chose not to run again this year, Richard Willott, who worked on her campaign, took her place.
Willott said his party is hoping to ensure Green voices are included in Parliament to push for better environmental policy and for more affordable housing.
"We're going to make people aware that we have their backs as far as affordability [goes]," Willott said. "We're just going to try and slowly grow. What the Green Party wants to do really is influence decisions, make them better ... that's what we have an Opposition for."
People's Party of Canada (PPC) candidate Artyom Ovsepyan says building support for his campaign can be difficult because of the lack of media attention the PPC receives compared to the major parties. But he's confident the party can tap into non-voters who feel disappointed with their other options.
"It's hard to break this wall of silence, but once people actually find out about us, they are more eager to support us," Ovsepyan said.
Ovsepyan added affordability issues like rising grocery prices are problems he hears about regularly from voters, and added that if elected he'd pledge to donate up to $20,000 from his salary to charities or other services in the riding that could use the funding.
The Canadian Future Party will be represented in the riding this election by Jeffrey Reid Marsh. The party launched in 2024, billing itself as a centrist option for voters who were unhappy with the Liberals and Conservatives. Kevan Hunter rounds out the Calgary Confederation ballot, marking the fourth time he's run in the riding for the Marxist-Leninist Party banner.
The federal election will occur on April 28. Advance polling stations open on April 18.
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