Ukrainians in Calgary feeling uneasy about what Trump victory means for ongoing war
President-elect's promise to end war stirs up concern and uncertainty
War forced Tetiana Usenko to flee to Calgary from Ukraine nearly a decade ago, but her thoughts rarely stray far from her homeland.
She runs a Ukrainian deli in southeast Calgary, a busy shop that draws customers from across the city seeking comfort foods like holubtsi (cabbage rolls), nalysnyky (crepes with a creamy cheese filling), or their bestselling medivnyk (honey cake).
There's not been much comfort these days, however, for Usenko and thousands of other Ukrainians who have arrived in the city as the conflict with Russia continues.
Usenko says the frontline is getting closer and closer to her hometown.
Now, Usenko says she's saying goodbye to "my buildings, my home, my hometown," because she's seen what has transpired in every town occupied by Russian soldiers, describing it as "demolition."
"Every day has shootings … innocent people killed," she said.
Another development for Ukrainians in Calgary to absorb is the coming change in the White House.
U.S. President Joe Biden's administration has been an outspoken backer of Ukraine in the war, providing a flow of aid and weapons, as well as gathering support among other Western countries to establish sanctions against Russia.
The U.S. remains — by far — the biggest donor country to Ukraine, sending more than $55 billion US in military equipment since the end of January 2022.
Now, things feel far less certain with the election of Donald Trump.
Trump has said he would end the Russia-Ukraine war in 24 hours, but he has not explained how he would do it. This makes people like Usenko nervous, as she calls it an "impossible promise."
"Trump tried to do some speaking with Putin, but Putin broke all of [his] promises, every time," she said, describing the Republican leader's election victory as "not optimistic" for Ukrainians.
Usenko left her country in 2015, in the early days of the Russo-Ukrainian War, following Russia's invasion and subsequent annexation of the Crimean Peninsula.
The 2014 land takeover is widely regarded as the move that set the stage for the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. In February 2022, the war escalated as Russian President Vladimir Putin launched an all-out invasion of Ukraine.
With the former U.S. president's pending return to the Oval Office, Usenko wants to see an end to the fighting, but she fears a resolution brokered by the Trump administration will deeply impact her friends, family and the future of Ukraine's independence.
While Trump hasn't laid out a plan for what a resolution would look like, his election running mate, now vice-president-elect, JD Vance suggested during a September podcast interview the conflict could be frozen along its current battle lines, with Russia keeping the Ukrainian territory that has been captured.
Vance, a Republican senator from Ohio, has been a vocal opponent of U.S. aid to Ukraine since the outset of the invasion, going so far as to say, "I don't really care what happens to Ukraine one way or the other," during a February 2022 interview.
That's why Denys Ruban, who moved to Canada with his wife and daughter in 2012 from Kyiv, Ukraine's capital city, believes "people are very concerned how they will [end the war]."
"The only way we can see … is stop supporting Ukraine, and then Ukraine will not be able to defend itself."
Ruban is one of the administrators of a Facebook group with nearly 24,000 members called Ukrainians of Calgary, which he says was started in 2022 to help Ukrainian newcomers fleeing the invasion get settled by connecting them with resources, like how to get a driver's licence or a SIN number.
In the days leading up to last week's U.S. election, Ruban created a Facebook poll in the group, asking who people would vote for if they were in the United States. Although unscientific, he says about 75 per cent of respondents said they would vote for current U.S. vice-president and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris if they could.
Trump's 24-hour promise 'pure rhetoric'
Trump's promise to end the war in 24 hours is something one international affairs expert calls "pure rhetoric." However, Andrew Rasiulis believes ending the war is a high-priority item and something that could be accomplished within the first 100 days of Trump's presidency.
"I think the Trump administration will fast-forward the conclusion," said Rasiulis, a fellow with the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and a retired official with Canada's Department of National Defence.
According to Rasiulis, a resolution under a Trump presidency wouldn't vary greatly from a Kamala Harris one, other than perhaps reaching a deal sooner into his term.
Rasiulis said Ukraine is in a tough spot, but "it's not Trump who's putting them there — they're there, and Trump is simply exposing it more readily than the Democrats were."
When it comes to what a resolution could actually look like, Rasiulis doesn't believe negotiations are off the table, but ultimately the outcome is still unknown.
Back at her deli, Usenko said she wants all people to feel welcome but doesn't want to debate anyone who supports Putin or the war. A sign on the door says as much, adding "Slava Ukraini," a sort of rallying call meaning glory to Ukraine. Usenko is unafraid to make her stance known.
Usenko hopes her shop can be a place of connection to Ukrainian culture. It serves as a reminder of the people and places that may be physically far away but are held close to the hearts of Ukrainians living in Calgary.
When you come to her store, she said, people see "products from [the] homeland," and they'll hear the staff speaking Ukrainian and know that it's a safe place for everybody.
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With files from Terri Trembath