Oil industry losses to reach $3B in 2016, Conference Board of Canada forecasts
Projection comes on heels of record-setting $7B in losses last year, according to report
Canada's oil-extraction industry is expected to lose another $3 billion this year as crude prices remain low, with the WTI rate not returning to $65 US per barrel until 2020, according to the latest forecast from the Conference Board of Canada.
That comes on the heels of a record-setting, pre-tax loss of more than $7 billion for the industry in 2015, but the forecast says there is light at the end of the tunnel.
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"Canada's oil producers are in for another tough year but conditions are gradually improving," Carlos Murillo, an economist with the Conference Board of Canada, said in a release.
"Next year, a combination of cost-cutting measures, increasing production and slightly higher oil prices should boost industry profits, helping the industry return to the black in 2017."
The report projects that the world's supply of crude oil will continue to exceed global demand for the next two years, but the surplus will "gradually shrink," creating conditions for a "steady increase" in prices, beginning in 2018.
"Despite lower oil prices and cutbacks in investment, Canadian oilsands production is expected to continue to increase, as a number of projects that are under construction begin producing," the Conference Board forecasts.
"Oilsands projects are planned with a production lifespan of more than 30 years and are based on a long-term view of crude oil prices."
Natural gas losses pegged at $1B
The natural gas industry is also expected to suffer another bad year in 2016, with producers' total losses projected at $1 billion.
"Industry revenues have contracted rapidly as a result of the one-two punch of low regional natural gas prices and depressed world crude oil prices (the latter affect prices for natural gas liquids)," the report states.
The Conference Board also projects it will still take years for Canada to realize any significant exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG), "given competing projects around the world and delays and setbacks for B.C.'s leading projects."