Good news and bad news can co-exist in COVID battle, infectious disease expert says

There's good news and bad news in the COVID-19 battle.

On the one hand, our infection numbers are seriously declining. On the other hand, the news about new variants seems alarming.

According to infectious disease expert Craig Jenne of the University of Calgary, these things do not cancel each other out.

"I think it's fair to say that the message appears to be conflicting — yet the headlines and that data are actually very much able to co-exist," Jenne told the Calgary Eyeopener.

"I think that that's perhaps the difficult or confusing part, is we're doing a fantastic job in the province of driving down the total number of cases. And critically that leads to reduced hospitalizations and, more importantly, reduced loss of life in Alberta. So, fantastic progress on that."

Jenne credits the more stringent rules that have been in place through December and January, and said this is still our best way of controlling the spread.

"We've seen other parts of the U.S., most of Europe, all going through these restrictive community level protections, and it is showing that they're quite effective, he said. "They're not comfortable. We don't like them. We need to get past them. But it is currently our best tool for controlling viral spread. 

Globally, the World Health Organization says that over the past week the number of new coronavirus cases has dropped by 16 per cent, and the number of COVID deaths has decreased by 10 per cent. Here in Alberta, Thursday saw  415 new cases, a vast improvement on the December peak of 1,800.

But, just as it seems like we're getting COVID under control, we're also being warned by health officials to watch out for the new variant strains. 

"The problem is there is a new virus or another couple of viruses out there, and these actually can change the playing field a little bit," Jenne said. "So what we're doing today may not be effective or sufficient if these viruses take over because they're going to change the dynamics of how viruses spread."

No evidence of herd immunity

Jenne, an associate professor in the department of microbiology and immunology, said there is no evidence of a growing herd immunity against COVID-19 or the variants.

"I've not seen any evidence yet that there's herd immunity. In fact, we're actually seeing, you know, not on a population level, but continual individual case studies of people who were infected getting re-infected. And that's not good news," Jenne said. 

"That is partly to do with the variance, partly to do with people who have been infected over a year ago now. And some of that immunity may be waning and that opens them up to reinfection."

There are now 239 variant cases in Alberta, including 232 of variant B117, first identified in the United Kingdom, and seven of variant B1351, which was first detected in South Africa.

Jenne said the rapid test does not determine if someone was infected with a variant strain when they test positive for COVID-19.

He said additional testing needs to be done, which can take weeks to determine the progress of the new strains and where they're spreading.

"But that sample has to go for a second test, this second technology that is a little slower and a smaller throughput. We can't do as many samples a day for that. So it takes time to determine, if somebody was positive, if that's a variant or the more conventional strain we've been seeing in Alberta. That delay, it makes it difficult to track exactly where and when these variants are moving through the community."

Meanwhile, the restrictive measures are slowly being eased as the numbers go down. 

Restaurants, bars and lounges in Alberta have not faced specific capacity limits, unlike retail stores. Instead, the province has put in place physical-distancing rules that include a minimum of two metres between tables and a limit of six people from one family group or cohort at any one table.

Contact tracing and distancing

Alberta now has the capacity to investigate and trace all contacts for up to 1,500 COVID cases each day, Health Minister Tyler Shandro announced Thursday.

Contact tracing and social distancing are still our best weapons, Jenne said, because even rapid testing technology will not help to identify the new variants.

"Right now, the rapid test, unfortunately, probably can't help us much with the variants," he said. "It will only tell you if you're COVID positive or not." 

Jenne said the rapid tests could be effective in testing "low-risk" populations for very general outbreak trends.

"If we're thinking, you know, workers at a large factory, youth sports teams, potentially some school-type environments where, if a case did accidentally get through, the repercussions are fairly minimal, that's where we really could be deploying them," he said. "Get a much better sense of the virus in the community and be able to know that we can carry on some activities at a safer level than simply not knowing."

Rapid testing at border

One more group that would benefit from rapid testing, Jenne said, is truckers at the border.

"Applying them broadly would rapidly, you know, strengthen that border, and identify if there are cases continually coming in through that avenue," he said. 

Jenne said he takes comfort in the declining number of deaths in the province.

"What we celebrate, what, you know, makes me feel better at the end of the day, is when we hear multiple days where we're reporting fewer and fewer deaths in the province," he said. 

"It's not the total case numbers. It is the fact that those cases, unfortunately, in some situations translate to hospitalization, severe disease and loss of family members. 

Jenne said getting those cases down is the key.

"If we can get those cases down, we can protect Albertans," he said. "And that's more critical now that we have a vaccine in sight. So if we can keep these cases low until the at-risk are vaccinated, we can significantly protect Albertans' lives. And that's really the goal of this whole process right now."

With files from the Calgary Eyeopener.