Back of the napkin: Figuring out which way Alberta goes... after election night

Political scientist Lisa Young uses online flow charts to explain the ups, downs and zig-zags of Alberta politics. Throughout the election period, she has sketched out the campaign's big what-ifs in a recurring series for CBC Calgary.

We've seen the announcements, the debate, and the ads (so many ads!). We've read the polls, and the other polls, and the seat projections. 

And it still isn't all that clear what the outcome will be. 

Today's first flow chart offers my best guess at the outcome, from high probability to low.

Looking at the polls and seat projections in the final week, the more likely outcome is a UCP win, either a narrow one (winning 46 to 50 seats), or a slightly less narrow one, with more than 50 seats.

This is the best possible outcome from Danielle Smith's perspective, as it might offer her at least a year before internal UCP politics make her life interesting. The more seats she wins, the longer she can hold off ambitious MLAs who think they're better suited for her job. 

Of course, there's a possibility that either the NDP or the UCP could win a razor-thin victory, with only 44 or 45 seats in the 87-seat legislature. 

Or the NDP might eke out a narrow win with 46 seats or more. This outcome offers us the lowest-drama possibility. Premier Notley for four years, or until she decides it's time to step down. 

Wild as it may sound, I don't think we should rule out the possibility that the past 17 years of Alberta politics have just been a bad dream.

(For my younger readers, a bit of background. First, to truly appreciate the plot twist, you need to understand the reference to the first episode of Season 9 of the classic TV drama Dallas. The script writers had boxed themselves into such a ridiculous corner they had to erase all of Season 8: turns out it was just a dream. Second, you need to think back to the 2006 PC leadership race. Calgary business executive Jim Dinning was favoured to win, and placed first on the first ballot. But the peculiar rules of that leadership contest allowing people to join the party between the first and second ballots let third-place candidate Ed Stelmach come from behind to win the contest. If Dinning had won, could he have extended the PC dynasty for another decade or two? We'll never know.)

Danielle Smith, precarious premier

What if the UCP ekes out a narrow win, somewhere in the range of 46 to 50 seats? Holding virtually all the seats outside Calgary and Edmonton, plus 10 or so in Calgary, the party would be able to form government and would expect to stay in government for the full four-year term.

The caucus would likely include a few establishment UCP figures, like Tyler Shandro and Demetrios Nicolaides.  They would have barely held their seats, and heard a lot at the doors about voters' doubts about their leader. The caucus would also contain all the newcomers Take Back Alberta recruited to the party. 

Caucus meetings could get interesting. 

Smith will likely be plunged immediately into an imperative to hang onto her job. She will want to keep her friends close: The report of the Manning panel will offer an opportunity to reassure TBA-affiliated caucus members that Smith is still with them.

She'll also want to keep her enemies closer: potential rivals will get plum cabinet jobs in an effort to placate them. Surely there's a fight that can be picked with Justin Trudeau to rally the base. Caucus retreats will continue until party solidarity improves! 

Will it work? Possibly. 

But what if the election outcome is close? Really, really close??

Let's say the NDP wins with 45 seats. With a majority of the 87 seats, and one to spare, they could form a government.

That government could last for four years, as long as none of the MLAs in competitive ridings have reason to resign their seats. But it would be a tenuous grasp on power, vulnerable to being thrown into crisis by a single by-election. 

It would almost certainly mean the end of Danielle Smith's leadership of the UCP.

Or say it's closer still: 44 NDP seats and 43 UCP. This is the scenario where things get pretty tricky in a Westminster system. One MLA has to serve as the speaker of the legislature. To govern, a party has to hold the confidence of the legislature, which means that it has to be able to win a vote of confidence.

If the opposition party isn't willing to offer up one of its MLAs to serve as speaker, the winning party would have to offer up one of theirs, leaving the number of MLAs in the house even. 

The norm in a Westminster system is that, if called on to cast a deciding vote, the speaker should support the status quo. That means voting against anything new, like government legislation. So that's not going to work! 

Assuming that no MLAs are inclined to floor crossing, this means that the legislature couldn't function. Since neither party would likely be keen to go back to the electorate right away, odds are pretty good that the losing party would offer up an MLA to serve as speaker, at least for a while, while they got ready for a new election.

They would probably spruce themselves up with a new leader, for example. 

And so, whether it's the NDP or the UCP winning a 44-43 victory, Alberta would likely be back at the polls in 2024 or 2025. 

In Alberta politics, we can never rule out an unlikely outcome, so we should all brace to see what plot twists Monday's vote brings us!