Danielle Smith's populist playbook: make the dominant feel marginalized

This column is an opinion by Jared Wesley, a political scientist and former Alberta civil servant. For more information about CBC's Opinion section, please see the FAQ.

Premier Danielle Smith's comments at her inaugural press conference offer a glimpse into the dark world of right-wing populism.  

The premier said of unvaccinated Albertans: "They're the most discriminated against group that I've ever witnessed in my lifetime."  It was a remark she later attempted to clarify, but did not retract.

Her comparison was ignorant of the deeper injustices faced by many other groups throughout her 51 years of life. That the comments were made from the premier's podium made the province a national and international embarrassment.  

More than this, Smith's rhetoric reveals an attempt by the premier to define a small and influential subset of the population — anti-vaxxers —  as both more common and more aggrieved than evidence suggests. In that way, it draws from the right-wing populist playbook being used in other parts of the world.  

The populist playbook

Populists like Premier Smith succeed when they are able to do three things:

1. Convince a dominant group they are being marginalized.
2. Convince that group they are in "the silent majority."
3. Convince the broader public that the group is both a victim and too dominant to challenge.

The first two moves appear contradictory. How can someone be both disparaged and part of the mainstream?  

Smith's day-one comments feed into myths about the lack of power held by rural libertarians in this province. In a very real sense, they have prime seats around the cabinet table, and they have enjoyed over-representation in the legislature throughout the province's history. How can they then be alienated from power?

Populists overcome this contradiction by persuading folks they are less powerful than they are, are being "left behind" by forces beyond their control, and are victims of "the system" run by a "corrupt elite" against the interests of "the real people." 

Like Pierre Poilievre, Danielle Smith has defined these forces as the "Trudeau-Singh-Notley coalition" in particular, and "the global woke establishment" in general. She has positioned her proposed Sovereignty Act as an important bulwark against those enemies.

These messages helped propel Smith to the premiership in Alberta. Whether they achieve appeal beyond her base depends on her ability to complete the third move in the populist playbook.

Next, she must convince the rest of society that the small yet influential group is both a victim worthy of pity and so large that it would be fruitless to challenge them.  This challenge is the focus of our Common Ground research, which shows how populists draw on myths to create empathy for politically dominant communities.

For generations, conservative elites in Alberta have crafted a narrow definition of what it means to "be Albertan."  This persona is captured by the "cowboy" myth — a rural-based stereotype that is deeply embedded in the public consciousness.

They cultivate this image through government advertising and other techniques. The goal: to establish the group's icon — the cowboy, oil worker, or farmer, for instance — as an emblem of society. 

If consensus states that a "real" Albertan is rural, rugged, individualist, white, blue-collar, and masculine, then ideas and actions that fall outside those norms are treated as "extreme" or "fringe." Refusing to bow to experts who advise wearing a mask or getting vaccinated, the cowboy mentality establishes the bounds of acceptable thought, expression, and action in Alberta. To act outside those values is tantamount to treason.

This consensus does not have to match the demographic reality of society or the personal attitudes of most people in it. In fact, it often doesn't.

Most of us have a false sense of social reality that holds us back from acting in our own best interests because we think that doing so will go against the grain. We have an inflated sense of how widespread stereotypical viewpoints really are.

In the case of Smith, the UCP has convinced many Albertans that their mythical Albertan — "Average Joe" — is being victimized by attacks on his "medical freedom."  Most Albertans don't look, feel, think, or act like Joe.

(The overwhelming majority got vaccinated, for instance. Most disagree with Smith about public health, social justice, and the convoy movement.)

Yet Smith hopes many will empathize with Joe's plight. He is a symbol of their community, and if he is being marginalized as a vaccine-resistant family man, we're all being marginalized.

Breaking down the appeal

The populist playbook is less effective when people recognize the game for what it is: a deceptive attempt to elevate the grievances of a small yet dominant community over all others by framing them as the interests of "the common people."  

The playbook also fails when voters realize the prevailing norms they've been sold by populists are both out of step with public opinion and unable to meet the challenges of the day.

Once the sham is revealed, space opens up for new leaders — dedicated to equity and diversity, instead of exclusion and conformity — who can begin building a more inclusive view of society.

In our case, that means broadening what it means to be Albertan and redefining our province's image and priorities to be in tune with the desires of the population and the demands of our time.

In these ways, Smith's rhetoric may spark important debates among Albertans about who they are and who they want to represent them. That type of collective reflection is the real, grassroots antidote to right-wing populism.

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