Decoding why Danielle Smith's UCP is down in northeast Calgary

EDITOR'S NOTE: This opinion column is based public survey research that CBC News commissioned in late March, roughly two months before Albertans vote in the next election on May 29.

As with all polls, this one is a snapshot in time. 

This column is one in a series of articles that has come out of this research.

If winning Calgary is vital to winning the province in the upcoming election, figuring out what voters want in the city's northeast will be a key ingredient to the next premier's success. 

In 2015, when Rachel Notley became premier, her NDP won all but one seat in this quadrant. In 2019, when Jason Kenney replaced her, the UCP also lost only one northeast riding.

The new poll commissioned by CBC News gives the NDP an edge of five per cent throughout Calgary. But in the northeast, it's three times higher, with the NDP ahead by 48 per cent to 33. That's the biggest lead in any quadrant. The pollster, Janet Brown, predicts the northeast will flip again, this time with all ridings going NDP orange.

To begin to understand why, you must first appreciate the northeast's complexity. It is principally comprised of young voters, new immigrants and diverse ethnic communities.

This part of the city is home to many mosques, gurdwaras, temples, churches and numerous ethno-cultural groups. This diversity is also reflected in its business mix, ranging from the airport, malls, and big box stores, to business start-ups and small businesses. 

When the clouds emerged

We also need to understand what happened here in the last few years.

People are still reeling from the devastation of the June 2020 hailstorm. It cost $1.5 billion in damages to personal properties and homes. Many of them had already had their vehicles parked and insurance coverage modified due to COVID restrictions. Their vehicles were destroyed too.

City hall offered some repair grants, but the provincial government only provided disaster relief funding to residents who experienced overland flooding, not for hail damage, insurance deductibles or uninsured losses. 

Around the same time, insurance premiums for home and auto increased everywhere in Alberta, making things even worse for people in northeast Calgary. 

The perception still remains that the UCP looks after its friends in business more than the working public affected by the hail damage.

Also, at the early stages of the pandemic, this part of the city had disproportionately high infection rates as a significant number of residents continued to work as essential and frontline service workers. Then-premier Jason Kenney blamed the South Asian community's housing patterns for high sickness and infection rates in this quadrant.

Switching premiers could have helped the UCP, as Premier Danielle Smith may be perceived as more empathetic than Kenney. And yet, the party is well behind with only 33 per cent support, compared to 52 per cent on the other side of Memorial Drive in the southeast.

Northeast economy

According to available information, the average individual income in the northeast part of the city is lower than neighbourhoods in the other quadrants. More people here are finding it very difficult to meet their monthly expenses and keep up with the rising costs of living.

Alberta's economy may have rebounded, but people are not feeling it the way they should. Albertans may see the UCP as a better fit to manage provincial finances and the economy, but they trust the NDP more when it comes to helping families, managing health care and education, and tackling environmental concerns.

People in the northeast are educated, and put a high value on health care, kids' education and public sector jobs.

It's worth noting that for the quadrant's many new Canadians, the process for professional credentialing keeps them behind, and away from jobs in the trades and professions they're skilled in, including those in the public sector. Both the UCP and NDP share the blame for not making any significant progress on this issue.

While the UCP has managed to attract good candidates, translating the energy seen in nominations into support on election day remains a challenge. The intense nomination battles so close to an election can also create animosity among those engaged in those in-party battles.

The governing party also faced a blow when Trade Minister Rajan Sawhney, the former UCP leadership candidate, decided not to run in Calgary–North East for "personal reasons," only to get appointed as the UCP nominee across town in Calgary–North West, when Environment Minister Sonya Savage stepped aside.

Many questions remain as to what happened, including whether Sawhney was pushed out by party insiders. These rifts and divisions can play out negatively for the UCP. 

New Democrats' potential

The NDP has been building around their only northeast MLA, Irfan Sabir in Calgary–Bhullar–McCall, for a while now. It's worth noting that even when the NDP was washed out in this quadrant in 2019, Sabir grew his support substantially compared to his first narrow win in 2015. 

And northeast Calgarians are almost twice as likely to believe Rachel Notley's NDP will run an honest government than the UCP, the data shows.

Based on my observations and the numerous conversations I have had with residents across this quadrant, I expect Calgary–North East, Calgary–Bhullar–McCall and Calgary–Falconridge to go NDP. I note that the UCP won Calgary–Falconridge only by 96 votes, which made it the closest race in the province  in 2019.

However, Calgary–Cross may become a battleground between the UCP's Mickey Amery and the NDP's Gurinder Gill.

The ground game matters in every election, but more so in this riding. Mickey Amery was recently appointed as the Children Services minister and his father represented the area from 1993 to 2015. Gurinder Gill is well-educated and well-known in the community and has run unsuccessfully twice for the federal NDP.

On election night, no one should be surprised if the result in Calgary-Cross determines the next government.

CBC News' random survey of 1,000 of Calgarians was conducted using a hybrid method between March 23 - April 6, by Edmonton-based Trend Research under the direction of Janet Brown Opinion Research. The sample is representative of regional, age and gender factors. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. For subsets, the margin of error is larger.

The survey used a hybrid methodology that involved contacting survey respondents by telephone and giving them the option of completing the survey at that time, at another more convenient time, or receiving an email link and completing the survey online. Trend Research contacted people using a random list of numbers, consisting of half landlines and half cellphone numbers. Telephone numbers were dialed up to five times at five different times of day before another telephone number was added to the sample.