Trans Mountain pipeline to lose money for government, says federal budget officer

The federal government now stands to lose money from its investment in the Trans Mountain pipeline, according to a new report from the Parliamentary Budget Officer.

The latest analysis, released Wednesday, shows the net present value of the pipeline is negative $600 million, leaving it worth about $1.2 billion less than the PBO's estimate in December 2020.

The new financial analysis takes into account new developments such as the budget overruns disclosed in February that peg the current cost of the Trans Mountain expansion at $21.4 billion, a 70-per-cent increase from an earlier estimate of $12.6 billion.

The new PBO report also reflects the fact that the pipeline's projected completion date has been pushed back to the third quarter of 2023.

The 1,150-km Trans Mountain pipeline carries 300,000 barrels of oil per day, and is Canada's only pipeline system transporting oil from Alberta to the West Coast.

Its expansion, for which construction is currently underway, will essentially twin the existing pipeline, raising daily output to 890,000 barrels to support Canadian crude oil production growth and ensure access to global energy markets.

The Trans Mountain project was bought by the federal government for $4.5 billion in 2018, after previous owner Kinder Morgan Canada Inc. threatened to scrap the pipeline's planned expansion project in the face of environmentalist opposition. Kinder Morgan was also concerned about the political risk posed by the B.C. government and its legal challenges to the project.

Still viable, says Ottawa

On Wednesday, Adrienne Vaupshas — press secretary for federal Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland — said independent analyses from both BMO Capital Markets and TD Securities have found that the Trans Mountain pipeline project remains commercially viable.

"The Trans Mountain Expansion Project is in the national interest and will make Canada and the Canadian economy more sovereign and more resilient," Vaupshas said in an email, adding the federal government still plans to launch a divestment process after the project is further derisked and after negotiations with Indigenous groups have progressed.

A number of Indigenous-led initiatives have previously stated their intentions to pursue an equity stake in the pipeline.

Environmental groups were quick to point to the PBO's report Wednesday as proof that the federal government should never have purchased Trans Mountain in the first place.

"The federal government is losing money on the pipeline whose profits they promised would pay for green energy," said Keith Stewart, senior energy strategist for Greenpeace Canada.

"Rather than pouring billions more into a money-losing, climate-destroying pipeline that only benefits oil company bottom lines, let's spend it directly on green energy solutions that help Canadians avoid pain at the pump while fighting climate change."

In its report, the PBO also looked at what would happen if the federal government were to stop construction this month and cancel the Trans Mountain project indefinitely, suggesting that such a move would require the government to write off over $14 billion in assets.

No plan to cancel project

There has been no indication that the Trudeau government has any intention of cancelling the pipeline project.

In February, Freeland said Trans Mountain Corp. — a federal Crown corporation — will need to secure third-party funding to complete the project, either through banks or public debt markets.

However, the federal government has agreed to sign a $10-billion loan guarantee for the project.

Part of the reason why the value of Trans Mountain is declining as the project costs soar is due to the way oil companies pay for the use of the pipeline through tolling arrangements.

Due to Trans Mountain's existing long-term contractual agreements with oil shippers, only 20 to 25 per cent of the increased capital costs of the project can be passed on to oil companies in the form of increased tolls.

That means that about $7 billion in cost overruns must be absorbed by Trans Mountain itself, ultimately eroding the project's returns.

Alberta Energy Minister Sonya Savage said Albertans expect and rely on the completion of the pipeline.

"This project is necessary for Alberta and Canada's energy sectors," Savage said in a statement to CBC News.  

"Pipelines, including the Trans Mountain Expansion, are necessary to ensure we can move resources safely while working towards North American energy independence and security."