Weather conditions expected to fuel active wildfire season in southern Alberta

Heavy rainfall this week has brought down the immediate wildfire risk in southern Alberta, but dangerous conditions are still expected in the months ahead.

Environment and Climate Change Canada is forecasting above-normal temperatures across the entire province through October.

And while much of northern Alberta is expected to welcome above-average precipitation, below-average precipitation is predicted across much of southern Alberta. 

"If that forecast is correct, we could have fire problems," said Thompson Rivers University fire management expert Mike Flannigan, adding it doesn't take long after rain for the fire danger to pick up again.

"I have a saying, 'Give me a week of warm, dry, windy weather. I can give you a raging inferno,'" he said.

Most of the Alberta wildfires sparked so far in 2025 have occurred north of Edmonton, according to the province's wildfire status dashboard.

But Natural Resources Canada predicts the fire danger will shift to southern Alberta by August.

"It's telling us that it's going to be warmer and drier across the south and it's looking like it's going to be kind of an average year for us, you know, in the northern parts of the province," said Derrick Forsythe with Alberta Wildfire.

He noted the current long-range forecasts aren't "out of the ordinary."

'Jasper really made it hit home'

Fire bans in some southern Alberta municipalities are no longer in place after they welcomed rain showers this week. Lethbridge's fire ban was lifted, while Vulcan County's was moved to a fire restriction.

Fire advisories and restrictions remain in place in some southern Alberta municipalities, including in Rocky View County, where fire chief Ken Hubbard is promoting FireSmart practices.

"Part of that is removing combustible barrels as well as grasses, scrubs, some logs, branches, twigs and needles that are within 10 metres of buildings," he said.

A fire advisory was in place for Canmore, where fire chief Ted Ruiter is preparing for the summer fire season, but has since been lifted.

Work on the Bow Valley community fireguard is still in progress. Trees are being removed in an area stretching from the east gates of Banff National Park to Dead Man's Flats to create a thinned-out forest zone around Canmore. 

The town is also pushing residents to adopt FireSmart practices, like pruning trees around homes and removing wood chips. 

"We're not ignorant to the fact that we're surrounded by this beautiful forest. And it does present some challenges from a climate change point of view as well as a wildfire point of view," said Ruiter. "Jasper really made it hit home. It's a reality now. And that was pretty close."

Several wildfires converged on the community of Jasper last July, destroying one-third of the structures in the historic townsite and forcing residents and tourists to flee. The damage was estimated at $1.23 billion.

Ruiter also said Canmore had a low snowpack this year, which can lead to more wildfire activity.