Amid bleak polling numbers, Edmonton could be an essential NDP stronghold: expert

The NDP is up against major challenges this federal election, predicted to lose seats across the country — but one expert says it's possible the party bucks that trend in Alberta.

That possibility might be why Jagmeet Singh was the first federal leader to stop in Edmonton during the campaign period on Monday and Tuesday.

In a news conference, Singh said the NDP has subverted expectations before in the province.

"Here in Edmonton, people had counted out Blake Desjarlais. They said, 'oh, no way that Blake can win in Edmonton Griesbach' — Blake Desjarlais beat a Conservative," Singh said.

"In Alberta, New Democrats beat Conservatives."

WATCH | Why Alberta could be a light in the dark for the federal NDP:

Chaldeans Mensah, an associate professor of political science at MacEwan University, said the NDP has a strong ground game in Edmonton, and the party can do well locally despite national polls.

"Every seat counts," Mensah said. "They need to hold the two seats they have here in Edmonton and perhaps if they work hard, to gain the seat in Edmonton Centre."

He noted this is especially important this year as the party fights to maintain official party status, needing at least 12 seats.

As of Monday, CBC Poll Tracker is projecting three seats for the NDP nationwide — and broken down by province, one or two of those seats could come from Alberta. The metric is a best estimate of how many seats each party would win if an election were held today. 

Mensah said that the national party is being squeezed out with voters worried about the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's threat of tariffs — and lingering reputational damage from the supply and confidence agreement with Justin Trudeau's Liberals.

But Mensah said those national problems may not pan out for local campaigns.

NDP MP Blake Desjarlais currently holds the Edmonton Griesbach seat and Heather McPherson holds Edmonton Strathcona. Mensah said the NDP brand is still strong in both of those ridings.

In Griesbach, the Conservatives have also had success and Kerry Diotte — who won in 2015 and 2019 — is running again. Mensah said those swings make that riding harder to predict.

Edmonton Centre is competitive for all three parties, but has swung between the Conservatives and the Liberals. Mensah said the NDP candidate and former school board trustee Trisha Estabrooks could turn it orange.

"I think that this particular candidate has a special circumstance of being very strong," Mensah said. 

He noted that the progressive vote splitting could benefit the Liberals, but Estabrooks is well known in the community, and might be able to pull off a victory.

"With her community connections and name recognition, I think she is poised maybe to pull off an upset."

Estabrooks said the stakes are high, but the national polls don't always tell the local story.

"It's a race that's being watched closely because New Democrats have never won here federally before. It's a battleground because in this race, there is no incumbent," Estabrooks said. 

McPherson, the MP for Edmonton Strathcona said she's only seen the party grow since getting elected in 2019, and feels optimistic that trend will continue.

"Absolutely we want to see some growth in Edmonton. I'd like to see us at least double our seat count."

Edmonton Strathcona won by the highest margin for the NDP nationwide with nearly 61 per cent of the vote in 2021. But McPherson said she doesn't take that for granted.

"We've seen time and time again where Conservatives think that every Alberta vote is theirs without working at all — and Liberals sometimes don't even try."