How federal riding changes in the greater Edmonton area could affect voters
2021 results transposed onto new ridings show Conservatives would have won Edmonton Centre
Most federal riding boundaries haven't radically changed in recent years, but thanks to electoral district redistribution that began in 2021 and was finalized in 2023, thousands of Edmontonians will be voting in ridings with different names during this federal election.
Here's a primer on what's changing and what past election results can and cannot tell us about voters in the reconfigured ridings.
Why did ridings change?
Every 10 years, independent commissions review boundaries in each province and may determine new ones so population shifts can be better reflected in the House of Commons.
Each commission has a judge, plus two other members appointed by the Speaker of the House of Commons.
Alberta's commission included Justice Bruce McDonald, Donald Barry, a professor emeritus of political science at the University of Calgary, and Donna Wilson, an expert practitioner of electoral administration.
The commission tries to make sure ridings contain equal numbers of people, but it also considers other social and geographic factors, like historical patterns and shared history.
What's changing in and around Edmonton?
The new electoral map has five new seats, three of which are in Alberta.
Edmonton's nine electoral districts are now all within city limits.
The Edmonton Northwest riding includes part of what used to lie in the St. Albert-Edmonton riding.
WATCH | How the boundaries have changed in Edmonton:
Edmonton Mill Woods has been replaced by a reconfigured Edmonton Southeast riding, with a third south Edmonton riding, Edmonton Gateway, now positioned between Edmonton Riverbend and Edmonton Southeast.
Huge population growth in south Edmonton drove the commission to break up the Edmonton-Wetaskiwin riding — the most populous riding in the country. The commission wrote in their final report that the three southernmost electoral districts in Edmonton should "help shoulder the future growth" taking place in this area.
The commission proposed moving Fort Saskatchewan to the Lakeland riding and pairing Sherwood Park with Beaumont, but listened to pushback from communities and reinstated the Sherwood Park-Fort Saskatchewan riding, even though it has a larger-than-average population.
How will new ridings affect results?
Some analysts say the new boundaries benefit Conservatives the most.
"Three extra ridings in Alberta — all three of those are probably new seats for the Conservatives," podcaster and polling expert Éric Grenier of thewrit.ca told CBC News in 2023.
In 2021, Albertans elected Conservatives in 30 of 34 ridings.
Elections Canada's transposition of the 2021 results onto the new ridings shows Conservatives would have won almost every Edmonton riding, losing only Edmonton Griesbach and Edmonton Strathcona to the NDP.
But Chaldeans Mensah, a political science professor at MacEwan University, said new boundaries are only part of the equation.
He said he thinks Donald Trump and population growth could influence the Edmonton-area results in this election.
"People have moved here with different voting backgrounds — I think that is the unknown factor in many of these ridings," he said.
He said Edmontonians voting in different ridings this time around have some work to do over the next few weeks.
"Find out exactly where you stand in terms of who is going to be representing you," he said.
How can I find my riding?
Visit elections.ca and enter your postal code to find your riding and the candidates running there.
Some ridings don't have confirmed candidates from all of the parties yet.
The nomination process closes on April 7 and a complete list of candidates will be available on April 9.
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