Here's what you need to know about the end of the consumer carbon tax

As of this week, the consumer carbon tax is no more.

After his swearing-in last month, Mark Carney cancelled the tax in his first move as prime minister.

But while that may result in saving a bit at the gas pump, it doesn't mean you'll necessarily save money.

"This was a policy that was actually putting money in the pockets of lower-income households, in most cases," said Kathryn Harrison, a professor of political science at the University of British Columbia.

Here's what you need to know about the carbon tax, and what happens now.

What is a carbon tax?

Although the term "carbon tax" has become ubiquitous, the fraught political battle over such policies doesn't always lend itself to a clear understanding of the concept.

In general, a carbon tax applies a surcharge to the production of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane, which are significant drivers of global warming and climate change.

A carbon tax can be applied to industrial producers who generate greenhouse gases, or to consumers in the form of a surcharge on carbon-based fuels like gasoline, diesel, natural gas and propane.

By putting a price on carbon emissions, governments use market signals to incentivize changes in behaviour that otherwise might not happen, or happen slower than desired — comparable to taxing cigarettes to encourage people to quit smoking.

What is the Greenhouse Gas Pollution Pricing Act?

Aside from a mouthful, it's the federal legislation implementing Canada's carbon pricing system.

Passed in 2018, it brought in two kinds of carbon pricing — one for consumers and one for industry.

The consumer version took the form of a surcharge on carbon-based fuels.

For example, the federal surcharge on gasoline was 17.6 cents per litre before it was removed on April 1.

The industrial carbon tax, meanwhile, remains in force.

It's what's known as an output-based emissions trading system, which sets a threshold for carbon emissions, above which a company must pay a surcharge.

The legislation allowed provinces and territories to implement their own carbon pricing regimes, so long as they met the federal benchmarks. The federal system only applies to provinces and territories that don't meet them.

Alberta had a consumer carbon levy — introduced in 2017 by Rachel Notley's NDP government, it was repealed in 2019 by Jason Kenney's United Conservatives. That system was similar to the federal version.

The federal system is revenue neutral, which means that proceeds collected through levies are not retained but returned, either to the provinces or, in the case of the defunct consumer tax, to individuals and households in the form of rebates.

On the consumer side, rebates were designed to cancel out the cost of the fuel tax. Rebate amounts are not dependent on income or fuel expenditures, which creates an incentive — using lower amounts of fossil fuels means you pay less tax and pocket the rebate.

Why is the carbon tax controversial?

When the federal government introduced carbon pricing in 2018, it faced criticism and opposition from many conservative politicians.

Several provincial governments filed legal challenges, including Alberta, Ontario and Saskatchewan. They argued that the legislation was unconstitutional because it imposed a pollution pricing scheme on provinces and territories that didn't have their own.

The Supreme Court ruled in 2021 that the legislation was constitutional.

Writing for the majority, Chief Justice Richard Wagner wrote that since carbon emissions are "extraprovincial" by nature and "carbon leakage" across borders is inevitable, there's a regulatory role for Ottawa to ensure that each jurisdiction contributes to the national effort.

"A failure to include one province in the scheme would jeopardize its success in the rest of Canada," Wagner wrote. "What is more, any province's refusal to implement a sufficiently stringent GHG pricing mechanism could undermine GHG pricing everywhere in Canada."

The decision also stated that the carbon tax is, in fact, not a tax — at least in the constitutional sense — but "regulatory charges" intended to change behaviour, not to raise revenue.

Another argument from opponents was that the consumer carbon tax hurt individuals and families by raising the cost of living and eliminating jobs.

But one study published late last year found that carbon pricing had contributed less than 0.5 per cent to increases in consumer prices since 2019, a tiny portion of the 19 per cent overall increase during that period.

An open letter signed by 200 economists last year refuted many of the talking points of carbon tax critics.

Will I save money now?

Maybe — or, maybe not. Not having to pay consumer carbon tax might even end up costing you more.

Higher-income households stand to benefit the most because they also tend to pay the most carbon tax, both directly (as a surcharge on fuel) and indirectly (when companies pass along the cost of their carbon taxes to consumers).

However, research has shown that most households actually receive more in carbon tax rebates than they pay in carbon tax.

Getting rid of the consumer carbon tax also stops those rebates — the final one will come this month — which hurts lower-income households the most.

"The repeal of the consumer carbon tax is a discouraging moment in terms of the power of misinformation," said Harrison, the UBC professor who studies environmental and energy policy.

Her research has found that people consistently overestimated how much they were paying in carbon tax, and underestimated the rebates that they were receiving — misconceptions that led many to view the program as harmful to their economic interests.

"Historically, we have talked about environmental problems as caused by big industry," she said.

"But in terms of Canada's greenhouse gas emissions, big industrial sources account for under half of our emissions. The rest are vehicles and individual buildings and farms and landfills ... small sources. But I think people aren't aware of that, and so they perceive it as punitive."

What happens to the industrial carbon tax?

The carbon pricing system remains in place for large industrial emitters — although, like the consumer tax, it only applies where provinces don't have their own systems in place.

All provinces except Manitoba and Prince Edward Island already do. Alberta's system was the first in North America when it was introduced in 2007.

But if the federal backstop is repealed, as Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has promised to do if elected, provincial government would be free to change or eliminate their industrial carbon pricing regimes.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has pledged to protect the industrial carbon levy. Carney, the Liberal leader, has said he'll maintain and improve that system, but hasn't said exactly how.

How to incentivize decarbonization without a consumer carbon tax is an open question, according to Tom Pedersen, a professor emeritus at the University of Victoria, and the author of The Carbon Tax Question.

"What do we do to encourage electrification of our vehicle fleet? What do we do to encourage the addition of more wind power and solar photovoltaic power in those places that have wind and sunshine, like southern Alberta?" he asked.

"That's a big challenge I think that somebody needs to take on in this country. And I don't know who's going to lead that challenge. I don't see it emerging right now."