French president's visit roils Quebec's austerity debate
France's Francois Hollande has become the face — and about-face — of government cutbacks
For a man nicknamed Mr. Normal, French President François Hollande is certainly fulfilling his people's penchant for drama.
Approaching the midpoint of his five-year term, he's sacked key ministers, re-appointed a prime minister, been caught having an affair, and was savaged in a tell-all by the now ex-first lady.
Perhaps worse, he is leader of a country considered to be on the brink of economic disaster where distrust of government is said to be reaching all time highs.
Hollande now holds the dubious distinction of being France's most unpopular president in over 50 years, which may be why he is coming to Canada.
This three-day charm offensive — with an initial stop in the Rockies, followed by Ottawa, Quebec City and Montreal today and tomorrow — has been heralded by Ottawa and Quebec alike as the first state visit of a French president since 1987.
But it can also be seen as Hollande's great escape, a bit of reprieve for a man whose misfortunes just keep adding up. And as such, his visit may also be something of a poisoned chalice for his hosts, especially those in Quebec, who are also about to partake in a fit of government austerity.
Cuba without the sun
The problem with Hollande is that at this point in his mandate he is a walking, talking symbol of the downsides of austerity. Granted, the situation may not be entirely of his making, but the fallout is sticking to him.
A bit of an accidental president, Hollande declared war on "the world of finance" in the 2012 race and campaigned on a pump-priming, anti-austerity platform.
That was in the midst of the euro crisis, and he promised growth, jobs and, in contrast to his showy main opponent Nicolas Sarkozy, to be a "normal" president.
Once elected, Hollande moved quickly to implement a controversial top tax rate of 75 per cent, which sent France's wealthiest reeling, some fleeing, and reputedly inspired former Rothschild's banker Emmanuel Macron — now suddenly the new economy minister — to grumble that France had become "Cuba without the sun."
Taxes increased. But so did unemployment, and Europe's second largest economy stagnated.
Eurozone leaders became increasingly impatient with France, and Hollande bent.
Soon enough, he declared his shift from socialist to social-democrat, a distinction that still holds sway in Europe.
Then, in the spring, he appointed a new prime minister, Manuel Valls, and entrusted him with reforming the French economy. Since then, Valls has repeatedly declared "I love business", signalling the government's new pro-market bent, a sea change from Hollande's campaign days.
Now France's new austerity measures aim at easing protectionist labour laws and cutting billions in public spending. Sound familiar?
Problem is, Hollande wasn't elected to carry out that mandate.
Over the summer, dissenters and rifts multiplied within the government and the party, and in late August three of Hollande's top ministers were shown the door. On his way out, one warned of the EU's fixation with austerity, calling it a "descent into hell."
'Stealing our pensions'
Fact is, France has not had a balanced budget since 1974. Economic growth was completely flat in the first half of 2014, and the public debt is now running at about 95 per cent of GDP.
By these standards, Canada and Quebec look downright healthy. So, clearly, the Socialist president is coming to do business.
The fact that Hollande landed in Alberta first was especially noted in Quebec. France now has significant interests in the oil sands, with big French companies like Total having made huge investments out West.
But it is in Quebec, where he arrives today, that Hollande is awaited most ardently.
Many Quebecers naturally identify with the French, obviously because of language, but also because of similar social priorities, a leftish political inclination and a fierce attachment to social entitlements like subsidized child care and university tuition — the very attitudes most resistant to any austerity agenda.
In this respect, Quebec's premier is ahead of Hollande insofar as Philippe Couilliard was elected to "re-engineer" the Quebec economy.
But details were decidedly scarce during the campaign last spring, and almost every measure suggested so far — like increasing the daycare cost to families, cutting parental leave and reforming public sector pensions — has been strenuously, even violently opposed.
Many of Couillard's opponents are also awaiting Hollande to arrive. The unions representing Quebec municipal workers are organizing demonstrations for the two days Hollande will be in the province.
"We want the world to know that the government of Quebec is stealing our pensions," explained one of the union leaders.
For Hollande, it will likely pale in comparison to anything going on back home. For Couillard, it is probably more of a harbinger of things to come.
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