Hamilton's greenhouse gas emissions blowing in the wrong direction
Next year's data will tell us if it's a blip or a trend
It's too early to say if it's a blip or a trend, but new data shows Hamilton is drifting farther away from its aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
'This could just be an outlier year and it will go back down.'- Trevor Imhoff, co-ordinator of the city's air quality and climate change team
The city's board of health examined new information Monday showing that industrial greenhouse gas emissions in Hamilton increased in 2013 and 2014.
The data – which Trevor Imhoff, coordinator of the air quality and climate change team, presented – shows emissions decreased every year from 2006 to 2012. But in 2013, the city drifted away from that.
Emissions increased slightly that year, and even more in 2014. Imhoff's team won't have 2015 data until next year.
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But these numbers tilt in the wrong direction for a city that aims to cut emissions to 20 per cent of 2006 levels by 2020, 50 per cent by 2030, and 80 per cent by 2050.
Imhoff says there's no reason to panic yet. Those two years had some extraordinary factors.
For one, there was a harsh winter, which required more heat. Also, electricity prices went up, which increased natural gas usage, he said. And natural gas produces more greenhouse gas emissions.
I'm not in the camp of we're not making progress. I think we are. Is it as quick as it needs to be? Maybe not.- Mayor Fred Eisenberger
Imhoff did warn councillors that as Ontario's electrical energy prices increase, so too will emissions.
But typically, he said afterward, you need three years of information to establish a trend. So next year will tell the story.
"This could just be an outlier year and it will go back down," he said. "Or it can increase, and we'd need an innovative approach to deal with that."
The city set its 2020 target in 2013, when it had already met the goal. In 2011, emissions decreased 21 per cent from 2006.
It also breezed past its 2012 emissions target, prompting local environmentalists to question whether the targets were aggressive enough.
Ultimately, the city can't control its major contributor of greenhouse gas emissions – Hamilton's industry. Transportation, residential, commercial and agriculture are the other main contributors.
Imhoff warned councillors Monday that the city is already seeing the impact of climate change. There have been changes in temperature and precipitation, drought and wind.
He also warned the city will see more severe storms, heat days and drought as climate change worsens.
Mayor Fred Eisenberger said he understands that, but he's not worried about the 2013 and 2014 numbers.
"I'm not in the camp of we're not making progress," he said. "I think we are. Is it as quick as it needs to be? Maybe not. Can we do better? Yeah. I think cap and trade is a foundation of getting better more quickly."
On that subject, Eisenberger asked staff to organize a public session to help residents better understand the cap and trade concept.